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And another one bites the dust (Chatwood to Chicago)

jamalshw

By jamalshw
in Orioles Talk

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MurphDogg Hangout Grand Counsel

MurphDogg

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3/38M seems a little high for Chatwood. If he would have come to Baltimore on the same terms I would have been ok with it but not overjoyed. MLBTR projected him at 3/20M which is absurd. 3/30M is where I would be happy. Great groundball numbers and an above average fastball, but his walk rate is around 4 and his K/BB is around 1.5 which is not impressive.

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MurphDogg Hangout Grand Counsel

MurphDogg

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11 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

The fact that he is signed this early to a team that has been really good at identifying talent should tell you all you need to know.

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/appeal-to-authority

The reason he signed this early could just as easily be because the Cubs (wrongly) value him more highly than all other teams. I don't think the Cubs are significantly better than all other teams at identifying talent.

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Number5 Hangout Grand Counsel

Number5

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1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

Not true, money is an object to everyone with the penalties attached to going over now. Especially if the Cubs want to  have the room necessary to go after Harper next year.

Sure looks like a big overpay to me.  As I said, just a drop in the bucket to the Cubs, though.  No big deal to me, I was one of the few around here that wasn't interested in Chatwood.  We've had enough pitchers that walk a lot of guys.

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pastorfan Major Leaguer

pastorfan

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1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/appeal-to-authority

The reason he signed this early could just as easily be because the Cubs (wrongly) value him more highly than all other teams. I don't think the Cubs are significantly better than all other teams at identifying talent.

You are right. The Cubs are not better than anyone else at identifying talent. They got lucky in recent drafts and with Jake. It was all luck. 

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MurphDogg Hangout Grand Counsel

MurphDogg

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11 minutes ago, pastorfan said:

You are right. The Cubs are not better than anyone else at identifying talent. They got lucky in recent drafts and with Jake. It was all luck. 

Of the Cubs 2017 contributors only Baez, Bryant, Happ, Almora and Schwarber were acquired via the amateur draft. And all five of those players were top-10 picks in the first round, available to the Cubs because the Cubs were bad in the previous season. They get credit for not missing on their first round top-10 picks from 2011-15, but have no other notable draftee success.

Contreras is their only notable amateur free agent contributor. 

The Arrieta deal was the kind of diamond in the rough trade that any team would make, a talented player who needed a change of scenery, and it worked out great for them.

I would argue that the Cubs haven't gotten more out of amateur free agency and the draft than most teams. They hit with their top 10 first round picks, of which they had several in a row because they were lousy for so long despite having the advantage of playing in a huge market, had one international contributor and spent a bunch of money to fill out their roster. They aren't better talent evaluators than other teams.

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MurphDogg Hangout Grand Counsel

MurphDogg

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19 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Of the Cubs 2017 contributors only Baez, Bryant, Happ, Almora and Schwarber were acquired via the amateur draft. And all five of those players were top-10 picks in the first round, available to the Cubs because the Cubs were bad in the previous season. They get credit for not missing on their first round top-10 picks from 2011-15, but have no other notable draftee success.

Contreras is their only notable amateur free agent contributor. 

The Arrieta deal was the kind of diamond in the rough trade that any team would make, a talented player who needed a change of scenery, and it worked out great for them.

I would argue that the Cubs haven't gotten more out of amateur free agency and the draft than most teams. They hit with their top 10 first round picks, of which they had several in a row because they were lousy for so long despite having the advantage of playing in a huge market, had one international contributor and spent a bunch of money to fill out their roster. They aren't better talent evaluators than other teams.

Of the Orioles 2017 contributors, Bundy, Britton, Gausman, Givens. Hart, Machado, Mancini and Joseph were drafted by the O's.

Schoop is their only amateur free agent contributor.

Those 9 players accrued 20.9 rWAR.

The Cubs 6 players accrued 15.7 rWAR.

If you want to just take the Orioles top 6, they (Schoop, Machado, Mancini, Bundy, Givens and Gausman) accrued 17.7 rWAR.

So the Orioles have had more contribution from the draft and amateur free agency than the Cubs.

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