Manny Machado and the Grand Slam

[Enjoy Terror]

19 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m not sure what you mean by that.    Jones has had 131 PA with the bases loaded.  In his career, he hits a HR about once every 25 PA.    So, 5-6 grand slams would be about his expected norm, given his opportunities.    

Chris Davis has 8 grand slams in only 102 PA with the bases loaded.    That’s a very high rate.  

Just spitballing but that should say a lot about their approaches at the plate. Adam is probably a guy who wants to knock the ball into the gap. Of course we know Davis is a guy that wants to muscle it out of the park. I don’t fault them for approaching a bases loaded situation in those ways especially because Adam usually hits top of the order and Davis thinks he’s on clean up duty.

[Redskins Rick]

16 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Just spitballing but that should say a lot about their approaches at the plate. Adam is probably a guy who wants to knock the ball into the gap. Of course we know Davis is a guy that wants to muscle it out of the park. I don’t fault them for approaching a bases loaded situation in those ways especially because Adam usually hits top of the order and Davis thinks he’s on clean up duty.

Jones does have 10 Sac Flies with the bases loaded.

[DrungoHazewood]

46 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Jones does have 10 Sac Flies with the bases loaded.

How many sacrifice flies would you expect him to have in 131 PAs with the bases loaded?

Jones hits a fly ball 34.5% of the time.  15.3% of his fly balls are home runs.  In 131 plate appearances you'd expect him to have hit 38 flyballs/not home runs.  What percentage of in-play fly balls with a runner on third become sac flies? 

In 2017 an average MLBer hit flyballs in 35.5% of PAs, and homered on 13.7% of flyballs.  Pretty similar to Jones' career rates.  Per 131 PAs, an average 2017 MLBer would hit 9.5 sac flies.  Or almost exactly what Jones hit.

[Enjoy Terror]

Here's the 20 fewest grand slams per plate appearance from active players with >50 PA's with the bases loaded:

Player	PA	HR	HR/PA
Elvis Andrus	134	0	0.00%
Erick Aybar	125	0	0.00%
Gordon Beckham	92	0	0.00%
Ian Kinsler	153	1	0.65%
Kurt Suzuki	149	1	0.67%
Howie Kendrick	139	1	0.72%
Melvin Upton	137	1	0.73%
Adam Jones	131	1	0.76%
Alcides Escobar	120	1	0.83%
Jacoby Ellsbury	114	1	0.88%
Starlin Castro	106	1	0.94%
Austin Jackson	99	1	1.01%
Andrew McCutchen	98	1	1.02%
Gerardo Parra	97	1	1.03%
Alex Avila	93	1	1.08%
Pablo Sandoval	89	1	1.12%
Nick Hundley	83	1	1.20%
Jose Reyes	165	2	1.21%
Eric Hosmer	81	1	1.23%
Jason Kipnis	81	1	1.23%

 

[Enjoy Terror]

Here is the most:

Player	PA	HR	HR/PA
Manny Machado	60	7	11.67%
Scooter Gennett	53	5	9.43%
Yoenis Cespedes	58	5	8.62%
Chris Davis	102	8	7.84%
Nolan Arenado	51	4	7.84%
Wilmer Flores	53	4	7.55%
Colby Rasmus	86	6	6.98%
Nelson Cruz	131	9	6.87%
Josh Reddick	82	5	6.10%
Mark Trumbo	66	4	6.06%
Matthew Joyce	86	5	5.81%
Paul Goldschmidt	69	4	5.80%
Brian McCann	193	11	5.70%
Justin Upton	123	7	5.69%
Giancarlo Stanton	88	5	5.68%
Bryce Harper	53	3	5.66%
Nicholas Castellanos	54	3	5.56%
Marcus Semien	54	3	5.56%
J.D. Martinez	92	5	5.43%
Albert Pujols	261	14	5.36%

There are quite a few former and current O's on this list.

[Redskins Rick]

27 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Here is the most:

Player	PA	HR	HR/PA
Manny Machado	60	7	11.67%
Scooter Gennett	53	5	9.43%
Yoenis Cespedes	58	5	8.62%
Chris Davis	102	8	7.84%
Nolan Arenado	51	4	7.84%
Wilmer Flores	53	4	7.55%
Colby Rasmus	86	6	6.98%
Nelson Cruz	131	9	6.87%
Josh Reddick	82	5	6.10%
Mark Trumbo	66	4	6.06%
Matthew Joyce	86	5	5.81%
Paul Goldschmidt	69	4	5.80%
Brian McCann	193	11	5.70%
Justin Upton	123	7	5.69%
Giancarlo Stanton	88	5	5.68%
Bryce Harper	53	3	5.66%
Nicholas Castellanos	54	3	5.56%
Marcus Semien	54	3	5.56%
J.D. Martinez	92	5	5.43%
Albert Pujols	261	14	5.36%

There are quite a few former and current O's on this list.

Hard to call Cruz a former Oriole, he was only here as a 1 year rental.

Colby hasn't made the 25 man roster yet.

 

[Enjoy Terror]

1 hour ago, Redskins Rick said:

Hard to call Cruz a former Oriole, he was only here as a 1 year rental.

Colby hasn't made the 25 man roster yet.

Nelson Cruz is a former Oriole. I didn't say anything about Colby Rasmus.

If something I said was not factual, please let me know.

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, Enjoy Terror said:

Nelson Cruz is a former Oriole. I didn't say anything about Colby Rasmus.

If something I said was not factual, please let me know.

Sorry, you was factual.

Personally, I have a hard time looking at him as an Ex-Oriole, since he wasn't here long, but thats just me.

[Frobby]

Kind’ve funny to see Justin Upton on the top % list and Melvin Upton on the bottom % list.  

[PaulFolk]

4 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

Sorry, you was factual.

Personally, I have a hard time looking at him as an Ex-Oriole, since he wasn't here long, but thats just me.

Geez, what does a guy have to do to be considered a former Oriole in your mind? Nelson Cruz, in his one year with the team, was Orioles MVP, 7th in AL MVP voting, the MLB leader in home runs, an All-Star, and led a division-winning Orioles club. But sure, that doesn't count.

[weams]

4 hours ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Nelson Cruz is a former Oriole. I didn't say anything about Colby Rasmus.

If something I said was not factual, please let me know.

I saw him do a barrel roll when Hardy scored.

[Redskins Rick]

On 3/2/2018 at 4:10 PM, PaulFolk said:

Geez, what does a guy have to do to be considered a former Oriole in your mind? Nelson Cruz, in his one year with the team, was Orioles MVP, 7th in AL MVP voting, the MLB leader in home runs, an All-Star, and led a division-winning Orioles club. But sure, that doesn't count.

Ok, I stand corrected.

[Frobby]

Mr. Machado hit Manny Granny number 8 tonight.