My 25-man roster prediction (as of 3/7/18)

[webbrick2010]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

STARTING PITCHERS

1. Kevin Gausman

2. Andrew Cashner

3. Dylan Bundy

4. Chris Tillman

5. Mike Wright

BULLPEN

1. Brad Brach

2. Mychal Givens

3. Darren O'Day

4. Richard Bleier 

5. Miguel Castro

6. Pedro Araujo  

7. Nestor Cortes

LINEUP

1. Tim Beckham - 3B

2. Jonathan Schoop - 2B

3. Manny Machado - SS

4. Adam Jones - CF

5. Chris Davis - 1B

6. Trey Mancini - LF

7. Mark Trumbo - DH

8. Colby Rasmus - RF

9. Caleb Joseph - C

BENCH

1. Chance Sisco - C

2. Danny Valencia - IF/OF

3. Anthony Santander - OF

4. Craig Gentry - OF

 

NOTES

• Gentry beats Rickard, who will go to AAA
• Wright starts out as the 5th starter and Cortes gets his feet wet in long relief
• The team opts to carry Valencia over a traditional UIF, at least initially. Can PH for Rasmus late in game and be replaced by Gentry
• Chance beats Wynns because of the bat and because the O's want him working with Joseph and Russell in the big leagues
• Mesa Jr. doesn't survive Rule 5
• Alvarez will go to AAA and await the fall of Trumbo or a Davis injury
• This is barring any signings such as Walker, Lynn, or Cobb

 

 

 

 

That's a really bad team. Let the battle with the Rays for least in the East begin!!!

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, interloper said:

STARTING PITCHERS

1. Kevin Gausman

2. Andrew Cashner

3. Dylan Bundy

4. Chris Tillman

5. Mike Wright

BULLPEN

1. Brad Brach

2. Mychal Givens

3. Darren O'Day

4. Richard Bleier 

5. Miguel Castro

6. Pedro Araujo  

7. Nestor Cortes

LINEUP

1. Tim Beckham - 3B

2. Jonathan Schoop - 2B

3. Manny Machado - SS

4. Adam Jones - CF

5. Chris Davis - 1B

6. Trey Mancini - LF

7. Mark Trumbo - DH

8. Colby Rasmus - RF

9. Caleb Joseph - C

BENCH

1. Chance Sisco - C

2. Danny Valencia - IF/OF

3. Anthony Santander - OF

4. Craig Gentry - OF

 

NOTES

• Gentry beats Rickard, who will go to AAA
• Wright starts out as the 5th starter and Cortes gets his feet wet in long relief
• The team opts to carry Valencia over a traditional UIF, at least initially. Can PH for Rasmus late in game and be replaced by Gentry
• Chance beats Wynns because of the bat and because the O's want him working with Joseph and Russell in the big leagues
• Mesa Jr. doesn't survive Rule 5
• Alvarez will go to AAA and await the fall of Trumbo or a Davis injury
• This is barring any signings such as Walker, Lynn, or Cobb

 

 

 

 

This is what we have now, so pretty accurate.  I’d sub Ynoa for Arajuo in the pen. Our lineup vs RHP is too RH. We need another lefty. 

[Rene88]

31 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

This is what we have now, so pretty accurate.  I’d sub Ynoa for Arajuo in the pen. Our lineup vs RHP is too RH. We need another lefty. 

Ynoa has been AWFUL.

[sportsfan8703]

23 minutes ago, Rene88 said:

Ynoa has been AWFUL.

From what we’ve seen in a few ST games. You can’t dismiss a long track record of development/success as a SP in the minors for rule 5 relievers. People are so quick to dismiss Wright and Ynoa, but these are two guys, that are fully developed, that we need to get production from. We can’t keep throwing away guys like Wright/Ynoa/Bridwell/Miranda/Brault because they are believed to be only swing men type. We need those types. 

Guys that are relievers their whole time in the minors don’t succeed that you often. We have our own group to choose from. We’re thin at SP and deep at BP arms. It’s an easy decision. Only Cortes has a chance. 

[Luke-OH]

The only thing I’ll say is reading too much into spring training performance is a yearly mistake, really tiny sample sizes. The process is more important than the results and track record matters.

[tntoriole]

3 hours ago, interloper said:

I basically despise Mike Wright, but credit where it's due: he's done just about everything he can to win a job so far. One more good outing and it's just about wrapped up I think. The O's will give him one last chance to see what he can do and the leash will be relatively short.

If the O's make any other signings, things get way more interesting roster-wise. 

I am sorry, but I ain’t paying no money to go watch Mike Wright pitch to another over 6 ERA...did that already in 2015 AND 2016...I will keep my money in my pocket this year.  If they trot this junk out there again this year in April and May, I hope they get 5000 fans a game. 

[VaBird1]

To be fair, Tillman’s first three years in the bigs were very similar.  Then he figured it out.

[MachoMachadoMan]

We're agonizing over Wright getting the 5th spot, but don't forget we've ceded the 4th spot to Chris Tillman who was among the worst starters in baseball last season. In September we thought they may bring Tillman back to battle for the 5th start spot. Instead he's our 4th starter for at least the first 6 weeks barring injury

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, VaBird1 said:

To be fair, Tillman’s first three years in the bigs were very similar.  Then he figured it out.

Tillman's first three years.

21-23

Wright's first three years.

25-27

 

That's pretty significant.

 

[mdbdotcom]

11 minutes ago, VaBird1 said:

To be fair, Tillman’s first three years in the bigs were very similar.  Then he figured it out.

And they completely changed Tillman's windup, dumping his Palmeresque motion and having him pitch from the stretch all the time.

In Wright's case they are just trying to get him to not jump off a ledge.

[Just Regular]

Regarding Hays, I think there could be a lesson learned from Schoop, who we are sad now will be a FA a year early.

Hays isn't Kris Bryant or Ronald Acuna, but I think he's a higher rated prospect than Schoop was (my memory of Schoop's job earning was that we didn't think he had the upside to worry about it - happy to have been proven wrong there!), and trading Hays's April 2018 for all of 2025 is poor man's Bryant/Acuna type stuff.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Regarding Hays, I think there could be a lesson learned from Schoop, who we are sad now will be a FA a year early.

Hays isn't Kris Bryant or Ronald Acuna, but I think he's a higher rated prospect than Schoop was (my memory of Schoop's job earning was that we didn't think he had the upside to worry about it - happy to have been proven wrong there!), and trading Hays's April 2018 for all of 2025 is poor man's Bryant/Acuna type stuff.

I agree.

Sign Hays to a team friendly deal now.

[theocean]

5 hours ago, interloper said:

STARTING PITCHERS

1. Kevin Gausman

2. Andrew Cashner

3. Dylan Bundy

4. Chris Tillman

5. Mike Wright

BULLPEN

1. Brad Brach

2. Mychal Givens

3. Darren O'Day

4. Richard Bleier 

5. Miguel Castro

6. Pedro Araujo  

7. Nestor Cortes

LINEUP

1. Tim Beckham - 3B

2. Jonathan Schoop - 2B

3. Manny Machado - SS

4. Adam Jones - CF

5. Chris Davis - 1B

6. Trey Mancini - LF

7. Mark Trumbo - DH

8. Colby Rasmus - RF

9. Caleb Joseph - C

BENCH

1. Chance Sisco - C

2. Danny Valencia - IF/OF

3. Anthony Santander - OF

4. Craig Gentry - OF

 

NOTES

• Gentry beats Rickard, who will go to AAA
• Wright starts out as the 5th starter and Cortes gets his feet wet in long relief
• The team opts to carry Valencia over a traditional UIF, at least initially. Can PH for Rasmus late in game and be replaced by Gentry
• Chance beats Wynns because of the bat and because the O's want him working with Joseph and Russell in the big leagues
• Mesa Jr. doesn't survive Rule 5
• Alvarez will go to AAA and await the fall of Trumbo or a Davis injury
• This is barring any signings such as Walker, Lynn, or Cobb

 

 

 

 

I agree with everything you have here - except for Sisco. I think Wynns or Susac is the backup, allowing Sisco more time to work behind the plate in AAA.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, theocean said:

I agree with everything you have here - except for Sisco. I think Wynns or Susac is the backup, allowing Sisco more time to work behind the plate in AAA.

From what I have seen of Susac I'm not even excited about him being the backup in Norfolk.

[Aristotelian]

Good prediction. It would be awesome if we could find a way to keep Mesa Jr and field four Rule 5 guys but it seems unlikely. Last spot probably comes down to Wright and Mesa Jr. Hard to know what we have in Mesa but we have less invested in him.

Also would be nice to have a lefty in the rotation and another in the bullpen but I don't see how to make that work with the guys we have, unless you want to bring up Tanner Scott. I guess they could go with all RHPs and then have Bleier and Cortes both backing up any time the starter gets in trouble. Or you could flip Cortes and Wright.