Adding Alex Cobb Allows Orioles To Change Manny Trade Terms

[esmd]

2 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Darn, sounds like the Orioles might actually have a game plan afterall.

I know, right?!?!  Adam is making $17.33, Britton is at $12M, and Brach is at $5.17M.  That's $34.5M off the books.  Mullins and/or Hays replace Adam, and then you have to figure out the back end of the pen, but even if you end up signing a FA reliever, you've got a big chunk of money to cover Manny.

I'd still call it 80/20 that he goes, but the fact that he might stay and they might be able to actually afford him.....I'm just praying that Trumbo comes off the DL and gets hot so they dump him.

[jamalshw]

3 minutes ago, esmd said:

I know, right?!?!  Adam is making $17.33, Britton is at $12M, and Brach is at $5.17M.  That's $34.5M off the books.  Mullins and/or Hays replace Adam, and then you have to figure out the back end of the pen, but even if you end up signing a FA reliever, you've got a big chunk of money to cover Manny.

I'd still call it 80/20 that he goes, but the fact that he might stay and they might be able to actually afford him.....I'm just praying that Trumbo comes off the DL and gets hot so they dump him.

Unfortunately, that's highly unlikely and even if he goes perform well enough that you can find someone to take on most of the contract, the Orioles won't make the move because he'll be helping them win. I think expecting Trumbo's contract to go anywhere is a lost cause. It's a bad contract (like Davis). The team just has to accept the sunk cost and move on appropriately.

Back to the main point of the post, however. I do agree, Manny is not a certain goner though he's still likely gone. The next question: what will the Orioles do to fill that spot? Would they consider Donaldson in place of Manny? He's be just as much AAV, but fewer years given his age. Or is it Manny or a downgrade to someone like Moustakas?

[Il BuonO]

55 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Darn, sounds like the Orioles might actually have a game plan afterall.

Now, now, let’s not get carried away. 

[Il BuonO]

42 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

Unfortunately, that's highly unlikely and even if he goes perform well enough that you can find someone to take on most of the contract, the Orioles won't make the move because he'll be helping them win. I think expecting Trumbo's contract to go anywhere is a lost cause. It's a bad contract (like Davis). The team just has to accept the sunk cost and move on appropriately.

Back to the main point of the post, however. I do agree, Manny is not a certain goner though he's still likely gone. The next question: what will the Orioles do to fill that spot? Would they consider Donaldson in place of Manny? He's be just as much AAV, but fewer years given his age. Or is it Manny or a downgrade to someone like Moustakas?

Jomar Reyes

[BohKnowsBmore]

4 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

2 SP for Manny was never going to happen.

Thats like taking your classic car to a car show and putting a for sale sign on it and an inflated price 50% above market. You really dont want to sell, but if you do, you make it worth your while.

Or when a division rival makes an unsolicited pass at your GM, so you ask for top prospects to grant permission

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Or when a division rival makes an unsolicited pass at your GM, so you ask for top prospects to grant permission

Same thing, they didnt want him to go, and if he was, they were going to make it worth their while.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Il BuonO said:

Jomar Reyes

Is he going to stick at third?  He's a large human, and his minor league fielding numbers look Mark Reynolds-ish.

[BohKnowsBmore]

2 hours ago, jamalshw said:

Unfortunately, that's highly unlikely and even if he goes perform well enough that you can find someone to take on most of the contract, the Orioles won't make the move because he'll be helping them win. I think expecting Trumbo's contract to go anywhere is a lost cause. It's a bad contract (like Davis). The team just has to accept the sunk cost and move on appropriately.

Back to the main point of the post, however. I do agree, Manny is not a certain goner though he's still likely gone. The next question: what will the Orioles do to fill that spot? Would they consider Donaldson in place of Manny? He's be just as much AAV, but fewer years given his age. Or is it Manny or a downgrade to someone like Moustakas?

I would argue a Trumbo getting hot situation would more likely result in a deal next offseason.  As you mention, he would be helping us win in such a scenario.  When we revisit construction of our roster next offseason and have guys like Stewart, Mullins and Hays ready to enter the mix, it will make sense to move Trumbo to a team who needs a 1B/DH for a year (again, this is in the world where he has a big bounceback season) so that Mancini can be a FT player (getting more DH PAs).  The one exception I see here (again in the Trumbo absolutely mashing scenario) is that we are so far out of it, some team gives us something of nominal value to take the contract and get a power bat with 1.5 years of control.   A team like the Rockies, for example, if they are competing.

[weams]

4 hours ago, theocean said:

This site should just change its URL to shouldhavetradedmannylastoffseason.com

Did you buy it?

[BohKnowsBmore]

1 minute ago, Redskins Rick said:

Same thing, they didnt want him to go, and if he was, they were going to make it worth their while.

Exactly.

[Babypowder]

I think that ship sailed. I can say now they actually do intend to try to compete this season. I don’t think they will, but this is what that looks like for them. I might be wrong, I certainly have been before. But I think they probably won’t be bad enough to sell at the deadline now, which means Manny walks.

Even if they were going to move him now, you won’t get Devers for Manny straight up, much less be asking for more.

[atomic]

12 hours ago, section18 said:

Adding Alex Cobb to the starting rotation allows the Orioles to change their trade demands for Manny Machado.  We no longer need two starters back in a trade package for him.  Which team will now step forward and put the best offer on the table?  Will we demand a 3B or SS back in a trade. Will Beckham move back to SS or stay at 3B? It's too early to tell but I would think he would move back to SS.  Who has the best 3B prospect available? Devers with Boston or Andujar with the NYY?  I think Divers is the better player.  What else would we want from them?  One starter in case Tillman is not able to come back? I hope Tillman is successful but expect us to still demand a starter back from the other team. We no longer need two starters.  New rumors will start soon. Will Arizona or the Dodgers step up to the plate and eliminate the fans in Baltimore having to watch Manny in a Boston or NYY uniform at least for one year? The big question is will they move Manny before Opening Day to maximize the return or wait to the trade deadline? 

LOL..  Manny isn't getting traded.  

[esmd]

3 hours ago, jamalshw said:

Unfortunately, that's highly unlikely and even if he goes perform well enough that you can find someone to take on most of the contract, the Orioles won't make the move because he'll be helping them win. I think expecting Trumbo's contract to go anywhere is a lost cause. It's a bad contract (like Davis). The team just has to accept the sunk cost and move on appropriately.

Back to the main point of the post, however. I do agree, Manny is not a certain goner though he's still likely gone. The next question: what will the Orioles do to fill that spot? Would they consider Donaldson in place of Manny? He's be just as much AAV, but fewer years given his age. Or is it Manny or a downgrade to someone like Moustakas?

Well, Moustakas taking the 1 year deal is certainly an option since he'll be out there again next year.  I'm not so sure on Donaldson.  Coming up for big money for Manny is one thing, coming up for big money on an older Donaldson who is already fighting nagging injuries is another.  I could see Donaldson's market being very depressed, especially if he spends time on the DL again this year.  Probably not to Moustakas levels, but I think he's going to be very disappointed if he expects $15+ AAV.  My guess is he gets a deal more akin to Trumbo's, and maybe only a 2 year deal at that same AAV.  I think Jones is going to be unhappy as well, considering his age, declining defensive skills, and the fact that he's never been a big OBP guy.  My guess is he also gets a 2 or 3 year deal for no more than Trumbo's AAV, maybe even significantly less.

I think that if Manny does go, they put Mountcastle there.  At least for a season or two, and then maybe if Schoop leaves they move him to 2B.

[Il BuonO]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Is he going to stick at third?  He's a large human, and his minor league fielding numbers look Mark Reynolds-ish.

That was tongue in cheek. Yeah, the defense needs work.

[section18]

Don't expect Manny to sign for less than what Jose Altuve got with Houston. 5 years and $151 million.

The big question s whether he would sign for less than 10 years. It's too long in my opinion. Six or seven?