A summary of our rotation

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, interloper said:

Aren't the samples too small to really mean much? What about if the pitchers just had bad nights? What about the opposing lineups? CERA seems awfully basic.

Vote here for CERA being misleading and simplistic.  ERA works because starts mostly even out across quality of opposition.  CERA is usually biased because most innings caught will match up with specific pitchers, times of year, opponents, etc.

Also not a fan because nobody regresses the data, and then comes up with fantastically ridiculous conclusions like "Joseph had a CERA 2.00 runs better than Castillo, so that's 324 runs a year he's responsible for!"  Taking CERA at face value forces you to conclude someone like Jeff Tackett could have been the most valuable player in history.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, interloper said:

Aren't the samples too small to really mean much? What about if the pitchers just had bad nights? What about the opposing lineups? CERA seems awfully basic.

It's definitely debatable.    However, most of the criticisms I've read over the years hinge largely on two arguments: (1) in a one-year sample, a CERA differential of .5 - 1 run just isn't very meaningful, and (2) it's tough to compare a starting catcher who catches 110-120 games to the back-up who catches 40-50.    Here, the CERA differentials were huge (over two runs a game) for five of our six main starting pitchers, and the playing time was more evenly divided between the two catchers than is usually the case.     So, I'm inclined to believe it meant something.   

[interloper]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It's definitely debatable.    However, most of the criticisms I've read over the years hinge largely on two arguments: (1) in a one-year sample, a CERA differential of .5 - 1 run just isn't very meaningful, and (2) it's tough to compare a starting catcher who catches 110-120 games to the back-up who catches 40-50.    Here, the CERA differentials were huge (over two runs a game) for five of our six main starting pitchers, and the playing time was more evenly divided between the two catchers than is usually the case.     So, I'm inclined to believe it meant something.   

Hey fair enough! Makes sense. Thanks for the in depth and genuinely helpful response. 

[foxfield]

38 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It's definitely debatable.    However, most of the criticisms I've read over the years hinge largely on two arguments: (1) in a one-year sample, a CERA differential of .5 - 1 run just isn't very meaningful, and (2) it's tough to compare a starting catcher who catches 110-120 games to the back-up who catches 40-50.    Here, the CERA differentials were huge (over two runs a game) for five of our six main starting pitchers, and the playing time was more evenly divided between the two catchers than is usually the case.     So, I'm inclined to believe it meant something.   

I agree with this overall.  I think it meant something.  I also think we want a reason for why our pitching, which wasn't great to begin with was historically bad.  However if this were a statistical analysis of 100 business events and the result was this outlier....wouldn't we expect that something in the analysis was flawed?  I get that it doesn't really mean that and am aware that as a matter of fact, Castillo may not be very good.  His CERA and our results do correspond.  But again....as Drungo noted above....following these conclusions Jeff Tackett..Jeff Tackett.! 

[Redskins Rick]

18 hours ago, Rene88 said:

Have there been discussions about expanding roster sizes at all on a perm basis (not doubleheaders only).

I believe there has been, but to what level, who knows? I only know what I read about in the media.

[pastorfan]

22 hours ago, Frobby said:

Just thought it might be nice to have all this information in one spot.     I'll list the five starters by age.

Andrew Cashner:   Age 31, born 9/11/86.   Controlled through 2019 (option for 2020 that vests at 340 IP in 2018-19, becomes player option at 360 IP).

Career: 137 starts, 893 IP, 3.80 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 102 ERA+, 42-64 W/L.

2017: 28 starts, 166.2 IP, 3.40 ERA, 4.61 FIP, 138 ERA+, 11-11 W/L.

Best: 26 starts, 175 IP, 3.09 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 111 ERA+, 10-9 W/L (note: I am only including seasons of 162+ IP

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cashnan01.shtml

 

Alex Cobb:   Age 30, born 10/7/87.    Controlled through 2021.

Career: 115 starts, 700 IP, 3.50 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 111 ERA+, 48-35 W/L.

2017: 29 starts, 179.1 IP, 3.66 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 113 ERA+, 12-10 W/L.

Best: 27 starts, 166.1 IP, 2.87 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 130 ERA+, 10-9 W/L )

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cobbal01.shtml

 

Chris Tillman:   Age 30, born 4/15/88.   Controlled through 2018.

Career: 198 starts, 1118.1 IP, 4.43 ERA, 4.66 FIP, 94 ERA+, 73-55 W/L

2017: 19 starts, 93.0 IP, 7.84 ERA, 6.93 FIP, 55 ERA+. 1-7 W/L

Best: 33 starts, 206.1 IP, 3.34 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 118 ERA+, 13-6 W/L

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tillmch01.shtml

 

Kevin Gausman:  Age 27, born 1/6/91.   Controlled through 2020.

Career: 106 starts, 639.2 IP, 4.18 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 101 ERA+, 34-43 W/L

2017: 34 starts, 186.2 IP, 4.68 ERA, 4.48 FIP, 93 ERA+, 11-12 W/L

Best: 30 starts, 179.2 IP, 3.61 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 119 ERA+, 9-12 W/L.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gausmke01.shtml

 

Dylan Bundy: Age 25, born 11/15/92.   Controlled through 2021.

Career: 42 starts, 281.0 IP, 4.13 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 105 ERA+, 23-15 W/L.

2017: 28 starts, 169.2 IP, 4.24 ERA, 4.38 FIP, 102 ERA+, 13-9 W/L.

Best: 2017 (didn't qualify previously).

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bundydy01.shtml

 

So what do you see as a mid-case scenario, or a realistic best case scenario (where not every single thing goes perfectly, but more things go right than wrong)?     The mid-case is difficult because Tillman is hard to assess, but here's what I'd say:

Mid-case: 750 IP, 4.30 ERA.

Realistic best case: 850 IP, 3.90 ERA

I can imagine 2014ish scenarios where we outdo a 3.90 ERA, but I think those are greater than 10-1 odds.

 

 

 

 

Good post. Of course, 38 games against the Red Sox and Yanks with line ups far superior to 2014 will make a difference.

[Aristotelian]

17 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Vote here for CERA being misleading and simplistic.  ERA works because starts mostly even out across quality of opposition.  CERA is usually biased because most innings caught will match up with specific pitchers, times of year, opponents, etc.

Also not a fan because nobody regresses the data, and then comes up with fantastically ridiculous conclusions like "Joseph had a CERA 2.00 runs better than Castillo, so that's 324 runs a year he's responsible for!"  Taking CERA at face value forces you to conclude someone like Jeff Tackett could have been the most valuable player in history.

I would agree if we were talking about 3.50 vs 3.60 over a season. But we are talking about a big difference, and Joseph has been better than both Castillo and Wieters, pretty much every pitcher, over every season. I don't really recall any "personal catcher" situations that worked for Joseph. I do remember him being called upon to catch Ubaldo a lot, probably because of his framing ability. If Tackett could influence the game that much, then you should consider the possibility that maybe he is that valuable. Certainly I would give him a chance to try.

[glenn__davis]

Wow, tough to believe that Tillman is still only 30 years old!

I looked up Sidney Ponson's career because I thought there's no possible way that Drungo was correct and he pitched that many complete games.  As usual though, he was correct.  I just have no idea how Ponson managed to pull that off.

[interloper]

Miley has a groin tear. At some point someone on here bet Miley would have a better year than Cashner. 

[Ohfan67]

2 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

Wow, tough to believe that Tillman is still only 30 years old!

I looked up Sidney Ponson's career because I thought there's no possible way that Drungo was correct and he pitched that many complete games.  As usual though, he was correct.  I just have no idea how Ponson managed to pull that off.

Look at his innings pitched. He pitched for a couple of managers and they all left him out there for a lot of innings (for this era, of course). He was also a valuable pitcher whom the Orioles traded him away at exactly the right time in terms of his future production. Sadly they got basically nothing in return and even sadder they turned right around and signed him as a free agent. Whomp, whomp. If the Orioles had not signed him as a free agent, then Ponson would be remembered (but barely remembered) as an above average pitcher who ate a lot of innings and was valuable to those teams (although the teams sucked or mostly sucked). But Ponson version 2 rained all over the parade (I was actually thinking of something besides rain that I can't post on this forum). 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, glenn__davis said:

Wow, tough to believe that Tillman is still only 30 years old!

I looked up Sidney Ponson's career because I thought there's no possible way that Drungo was correct and he pitched that many complete games.  As usual though, he was correct.  I just have no idea how Ponson managed to pull that off.

It was a lot more common in those days.   In Ponson’s prime years, there were usually over 100 complete games pitched in the AL; last year there were 32.    Still, Ponson led the league in CG in 2004, and finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th in other years.    He was the very definition of an innings eater in his heyday, even if not a very good pitcher.  

[Aristotelian]

Didn't Buck say he was going to hide his starters from the AL East in the spring? So why is Wright pitching today?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Didn't Buck say he was going to hide his starters from the AL East in the spring? So why is Wright pitching today?

The time for that appears to be over.    Bundy is facing Tampa tomorrow and Tillman is facing the Twins (who we play early) on Saturday.   In any event, if Wright’s a starter (even before Cobb arrives), something’s very wrong.  

[Diehard_O's_Fan]

I absolutely hate the thought of Tillman facing the Astros in Houston. That will be a very hard game for the Orioles to win especially with Tillman pitching. Houston we have a problem!

[DrungoHazewood]

5 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I would agree if we were talking about 3.50 vs 3.60 over a season. But we are talking about a big difference, and Joseph has been better than both Castillo and Wieters, pretty much every pitcher, over every season. I don't really recall any "personal catcher" situations that worked for Joseph. I do remember him being called upon to catch Ubaldo a lot, probably because of his framing ability. If Tackett could influence the game that much, then you should consider the possibility that maybe he is that valuable. Certainly I would give him a chance to try.

Who were the opposition?  At what parks?  With what defense?  At what times of the year and weather conditions? 

I'm still of the opinion that CERA is only marginally more valuable than SSERA.  Or LFERA.  But I'll concede that you can pull more meaning out of it than DHERA if you control for enough variables.