Battle for the Bullpen

[sportsfan8703]

I’m torn if Castro should be a reliever or we should try and develop him as a SP. I think the Os need him to win now. Especially with Britton out, but Castro is only 23. He’s 6 months younger than Tanner Scott, and 3 weeks younger than Hunter Harvey. 

I don’t think starting him in the minors is a luxury we could afford. It would be really nice though to have another legit SP prospect in the upper minors. 

[Il BuonO]

4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’m torn if Castro should be a reliever or we should try and develop him as a SP. I think the Os need him to win now. Especially with Britton out, but Castro is only 23. He’s 6 months younger than Tanner Scott, and 3 weeks younger than Hunter Harvey. 

I don’t think starting him in the minors is a luxury we could afford. It would be really nice though to have another legit SP prospect in the upper minors. 

Maybe he could come in for one inning at max effort. He’s not a starter.

[sportsfan8703]

3 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

Maybe he could come in for one inning at max effort. He’s not a starter.

I agree. It’s a moot point because we need him now anyway in the pen, but if we fall out of the race he could be sent down and start. Or if we don’t use the option this year it will still be there for next year. 

[sportsfan8703]

30 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

His issue was never related to his stuff. It's been command/control. From what I've seen this spring, he's showing average (50) command. That combined with a fastball that sits 95-97 from the left side, and at least an average slider is a pretty good reliever. 

With 5 RHP in the rotation, I'd want more than two LH relievers. Right now there is Bleier, even assuming Cortes is the second guy, I think they'd want a third.

Which of the guys out of Joely, Arajuo, and guys in the minors, have the best chance to to have that break out bullpen year that we see from year to year?

i know you’ve said before that youre not a big Bleier fan, and of course he is due for regression, but even though relievers are volitaile I think he’s the only regression candidate. Castro is too young, Givens is too good, O’day healthy is steady, and Brach is a machine if not overworked. 

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I agree. It’s a moot point because we need him now anyway in the pen, but if we fall out of the race he could be sent down and start. Or if we don’t use the option this year it will still be there for next year. 

Castro got a late start this spring due to his shin splints and has pitched terribly his last two outings.    I don’t know that he’ll be ready to help the club as a reliever when the season opens.    I’d be inclined to send him to Norfolk, use him as a starter, and then call him back up once he is pitching better and as the need arises, whether in relief or as a starter.   

[Luke-OH]

22 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Which of the guys out of Joely, Arajuo, and guys in the minors, have the best chance to to have that break out bullpen year that we see from year to year?

i know you’ve said before that youre not a big Bleier fan, and of course he is due for regression, but even though relievers are volitaile I think he’s the only regression candidate. Castro is too young, Givens is too good, O’day healthy is steady, and Brach is a machine if not overworked. 

I think it's Tanner Scott who has the best shot at having a huge season, he's got closer stuff, just needs to throw more strikes. That said, I'm fine with him getting some AAA time to continue to improve command/control even though he's look better in that regard this spring (in the couple outings I've seen).

Joely has the second best upside of those guys IMO.

Araujo's issue is that the FB isn't going to fool anyone and the book on him will come out soon. I don't think he has the command to get ahead in the count with offspeed pitches and the FB doesn't play on the plate. He also hasn't thrown (again, in the couple of outings I've seen) his good breaking ball. Whether it's a different pitch or a different grip or just lacking quality, I'm not sure. The changeup has looked good. I'm ok with keeping him, if he gets his breaking ball back to where it was last year he could be useful.

On Mike Wright, I don't like his cutter, I think it's his worst pitch. It's not particularly deceptive and it seems (in the outings I've watched) to sap his feel for his slider (his best swing and miss pitch in 2017). For Wright, I don't think his problem was ever lack of a pitch, it was more avoiding mistake pitches and hitting his spots.

[weams]

2 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I think it's Tanner Scott who has the best shot at having a huge season, he's got closer stuff, just needs to throw more strikes. That said, I'm fine with him getting some AAA time to continue to improve command/control even though he's look better in that regard this spring (in the couple outings I've seen).

Joely has the second best upside of those guys IMO.

Araujo's issue is that the FB isn't going to fool anyone and the book on him will come out soon. I don't think he has the command to get ahead in the count with offspeed pitches and the FB doesn't play on the plate. He also hasn't thrown (again, in the couple of outings I've seen) his good breaking ball. Whether it's a different pitch or a different grip or just lacking quality, I'm not sure. Why? The changeup has looked good. I'm ok with keeping him, if he gets his breaking ball back to where it was last year he could be useful.

On Mike Wright, I don't like his cutter, I think it's his worst pitch. It's not particularly deceptive and it seems (in the outings I've watched) to sap his feel for his slider (his best swing and miss pitch in 2017). For Wright, I don't think his problem was ever lack of a pitch, it was more avoiding mistake pitches and hitting his spots.

Very good take. 

[weams]

3 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I think it's Tanner Scott who has the best shot at having a huge season, he's got closer stuff, just needs to throw more strikes. That said, I'm fine with him getting some AAA time to continue to improve command/control even though he's look better in that regard this spring (in the couple outings I've seen).

Joely has the second best upside of those guys IMO.

Araujo's issue is that the FB isn't going to fool anyone and the book on him will come out soon. I don't think he has the command to get ahead in the count with offspeed pitches and the FB doesn't play on the plate. He also hasn't thrown (again, in the couple of outings I've seen) his good breaking ball. Whether it's a different pitch or a different grip or just lacking quality, I'm not sure. Why? The changeup has looked good. I'm ok with keeping him, if he gets his breaking ball back to where it was last year he could be useful.

On Mike Wright, I don't like his cutter, I think it's his worst pitch. It's not particularly deceptive and it seems (in the outings I've watched) to sap his feel for his slider (his best swing and miss pitch in 2017). For Wright, I don't think his problem was ever lack of a pitch, it was more avoiding mistake pitches and hitting his spots.

Put this post up in article form, please ;)

[Luke-OH]

Just now, weams said:

Put this post up in article form, please ;)

Give me a little while, I'd like to build it out a little more.

[Aristotelian]

40 minutes ago, weams said:

I think they intend to go north with five starters as well. From what I read. 

Will the 5th starter actually make a start before Cobb is recalled? If they go with normal rest, I don't think we need the 5th guy until April 7 vs NYY. 5th SP would then be needed next on 4/13 vs Red Sox. If they go with extra rest, that would put Wright/Cortes on 4/3 (vs HOU) and 4/8 (vs NYY) if needed.  If Cobb can be ready by the 13th, I like the first option, so Wright/Cortes only has to make one start.

SP: Gausman, Cashner, Bundy, Tillman, Wright

RP: Brach, Givens, O'Day, Bleier, Cortes, Araujo, Joely

I think they will let Tillman lose the job. Hopefully he will be kept on a short leash, and who knows, he might be good. Maybe let Wright be the 5th SP, putting Cortes in the bullpen where he is likely to stick. When Cobb comes back, they have a decision to make. One of Wright, Araujo, and Joely has to go. You could get rid of Wright without changing anyone's role.

 

[backwardsk]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Will the 5th starter actually make a start before Cobb is recalled? If they go with normal rest, I don't think we need the 5th guy until April 7 vs NYY. 5th SP would then be needed next on 4/13 vs Red Sox. If they go with extra rest, that would put Wright/Cortes on 4/3 (vs HOU) and 4/8 (vs NYY) if needed.  If Cobb can be ready by the 13th, I like the first option, so Wright/Cortes only has to make one start.

SP: Gausman, Cashner, Bundy, Tillman, Wright

RP: Brach, Givens, O'Day, Bleier, Cortes, Araujo, Joely

I think they will let Tillman lose the job. Hopefully he will be kept on a short leash, and who knows, he might be good. Maybe let Wright be the 5th SP, putting Cortes in the bullpen where he is likely to stick. When Cobb comes back, they have a decision to make. One of Wright, Araujo, and Joely has to go. You could get rid of Wright without changing anyone's role.

 

April 4 is when the fifth guy needs to make a start.

[bird watcher]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Will the 5th starter actually make a start before Cobb is recalled? If they go with normal rest, I don't think we need the 5th guy until April 7 vs NYY. 5th SP would then be needed next on 4/13 vs Red Sox. If they go with extra rest, that would put Wright/Cortes on 4/3 (vs HOU) and 4/8 (vs NYY) if needed.  If Cobb can be ready by the 13th, I like the first option, so Wright/Cortes only has to make one start.

SP: Gausman, Cashner, Bundy, Tillman, Wright

RP: Brach, Givens, O'Day, Bleier, Cortes, Araujo, Joely

I think they will let Tillman lose the job. Hopefully he will be kept on a short leash, and who knows, he might be good. Maybe let Wright be the 5th SP, putting Cortes in the bullpen where he is likely to stick. When Cobb comes back, they have a decision to make. One of Wright, Araujo, and Joely has to go. You could get rid of Wright without changing anyone's role.

 

 

57 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

April 4 is when the fifth guy needs to make a start.

I think the performance of the starters to that point could play into the picture too.  If the starters have short outings and the bullpen is forced to soak up too many innings in the first week or two things will need to be moved around even more.  If however the starters are able to go long and the bullpen doesn't have many innings, they could theoretically forego the 5th starter, or at least the need to add someone to the 25 man roster in that role, in favor of a "bullpen game"  

[weams]

 

[weams]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Will the 5th starter actually make a start before Cobb is recalled? If they go with normal rest, I don't think we need the 5th guy until April 7 vs NYY. 5th SP would then be needed next on 4/13 vs Red Sox. If they go with extra rest, that would put Wright/Cortes on 4/3 (vs HOU) and 4/8 (vs NYY) if needed.  If Cobb can be ready by the 13th, I like the first option, so Wright/Cortes only has to make one start.

SP: Gausman, Cashner, Bundy, Tillman, Wright

RP: Brach, Givens, O'Day, Bleier, Cortes, Araujo, Joely

I think they will let Tillman lose the job. Hopefully he will be kept on a short leash, and who knows, he might be good. Maybe let Wright be the 5th SP, putting Cortes in the bullpen where he is likely to stick. When Cobb comes back, they have a decision to make. One of Wright, Araujo, and Joely has to go. You could get rid of Wright without changing anyone's role.

 

I think the fifth starter will actually make two. 

[jamalshw]

I think that Cortes is a virtual lock in the pen at this point. He becomes the lefty long man to come in off a short outing by any starter, offering a different lock. With an all righty rotation, there will be at least 2 (and likely three LHPs). With Cortes in place, that gives us two bullpen slots.

Ultimately--after Cobb joins the team--I want a bullpen with Joely, Areujo and Cortes, but I expect Wright to bump one of them.