Camden Depot: Jon Shepherd on Davis

[NashLumber]

25 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Not as often as we used to...thats for sure!!!!  

And as for ending the love affair with the Orioles...you cant leave.  If you have been here as long as I think you have...you, like me are hooked.  If we could leave we would have left long ago.

I'm braced for it getting a lot worse than it is...but still believe it can get better.  And it will...I promise. 

 

I appreciate that. I didn’t mean me leaving as a fan. O’s, “I can’t quit you.”  But I do think there are some longtime fans who are voting by not showing up at the games and not planning vacations like they used to around The Orioles. I think we see that in the attendance now.  We can’t go to OPACY this year as our family rock trio are touring the UK this Fall. Can’t afford to do both. But I am tuning them out myself for a few days a week now instead of reading every piece of info I can find on them and constantly analyzing this or that. This organization is like a friend who is his own worst enemy and you realize you can’t change them. They have to change themselves. I’ll check in on OH. But more like three or four times a week instead of multiple times every single day of the year. And I’ll listen to Joe Angel more as opposed to TV broadcast while I’m busy doing other things. But planting myself night after night in front of the TV during prime family or creative time and watching this idiotic ownership management style flounder with self-inflicted wounds at the expense of missing out on real life things (hell, I’m overdue in writing a new album, teaching my kids ukulele and guitar) is just something I’m not gonna do till I hear they have made some positive changes either in the front office, ownership or with some smart baseball moves. I need about two out of those three to occur. I’d like all three. 

[weams]

31 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Unfortunately, like Elvis in the state of his discovery...methinks Chris Davis is beyond the help of modern medicine.

 

[sportsfan8703]

37 minutes ago, weams said:

If bypass surgery would fix Chris Davis, I'd insist on in in a heart beat. We are still a few seasons from mechanically augmented cyborg players. But not too far.  They could have  implanted the King  into a different body if only he had lived a half a century later.  My feeling is that Chris would refuse augmentation. Other than that that he embraced pre contract. This is truly Scott Boras at his finest.  Another kind of King.

They are pretty close on Westworld to making a host Chris Davis. 

[weams]

4 minutes ago, NashLumber said:

I appreciate that. I didn’t mean me leaving as a fan. But I do think there are some longtime fans who are voting by not showing up at the games and not planning vacations like they used to around The Orioles. I think we see that in the attendance now.  We can’t go to OPACY this year as our family rock trio are touring the UK this Fall. Can’t afford to do both. But I am tuning them out myself for a few days a week now instead of reading every piece of info I can find on them and constantly analyzing this or that. This organization is like a friend who is his own worst enemey and you realize you can’t change them. They have to change themselves. I’ll check in on OH. But more like three or four times a week instead of multiple times every single day of the year. And I’ll listen to Joe Angel more as opposed to TV broadcast while I’m busy doing other things. But planting myself night after night in front of the TV during prime family or creative time and watching this idiotic ownership management style flounder with self-inflicted wounds at the expense of missing out on real life things (hell, I’m overdue in writing a new album, teaching my kids ukulele and guitar) is just something I’m not gonna do till I hear they have made some positive changes either in the front office, ownership or with some smart baseball moves. I need about two out of those three to occur. I’d like all three. 

Write the new album.

[weams]

44 minutes ago, bobmc said:

But did anyone ever question the King in public as Jim P did CD?  (Holding on to the thread title)

"Now Charley, you gotta' make up your mind son."

[weams]

4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

They are pretty close on Westworld to making a host Chris Davis. 

http://dai.ly/x64im72

[foxfield]

6 minutes ago, NashLumber said:

I appreciate that. I didn’t mean me leaving as a fan. O’s, “I can’t quit you.”  But I do think there are some longtime fans who are voting by not showing up at the games and not planning vacations like they used to around The Orioles. I think we see that in the attendance now.  We can’t go to OPACY this year as our family rock trio are touring the UK this Fall. Can’t afford to do both. But I am tuning them out myself for a few days a week now instead of reading every piece of info I can find on them and constantly analyzing this or that. This organization is like a friend who is his own worst enemey and you realize you can’t change them. They have to change themselves. I’ll check in on OH. But more like three or four times a week instead of multiple times every single day of the year. And I’ll listen to Joe Angel more as opposed to TV broadcast while I’m busy doing other things. But planting myself night after night in front of the TV during prime family or creative time and watching this idiotic ownership management style flounder with self-inflicted wounds at the expense of missing out on real life things (hell, I’m overdue in writing a new album, teaching my kids ukulele and guitar) is just something I’m not gonna do till I hear they have made some positive changes either in the front office, ownership or with some smart baseball moves. I need about two out of those three to occur. I’d like all three. 

Great post.  And yes finish the Album.  I am years away from playing regularly myself and I miss it like I miss the O's being the best run team in sports.  But here is the thing, and we can't get around it...We cant change the Orioles.  But we can change our choices!!!

If you ever pass through the thriving metropolis of Burkeville...lets have a beer and jam.

[LookitsPuck]

I was against a long term deal for Davis. I do think that we were bidding against ourselves.

That said, I was in favour of a 4 year deal in the $12-$14m/year range. 

I was not expecting him to completely fall off the face of a planet to the tune of a 37 OPS+ and an OPS of under .500 in year 3. 

This is quite possibly the biggest fall off a cliff from such a high paid player, well, ever. 

[Moose Milligan]

Well, something has to happen. 

No one will take him, I have to believe.  I mean, even if we paid something ridiculous like 80% of the remaining contract, no one would take him.  Someone MIGHT take him if he was at a 120 OPS+ or something somewhat respectable...but he's not.  In other words, you can't give him away.  You can't pay someone to take him.  

I don't see him retiring.  There's too many years on that contract and too much money just to walk away.  I mean, it'd be cool if he did but I don't think he does.  

IMO, that leaves the option of a buyout as the most realistic and best shot that the Orioles have of getting him off the roster.  If I am Angelos, DD, Brady, whoever, I am talking to his agent about what it would take to get him to retire and move on.  

He is getting paid until 2032 or 2037 or something ridiculous like that.  That's where I start.  Retire now, keep the deferred payments (something like a total of 42 million or so) until the end.  Essentially get paid handsomely until you're well into your 50s to do nothing and walk away.  Maybe move the dollars around little bit, give him slightly more money per year.  Get creative.  Start a conversation.  

To me, I think that's the most realistic thing that can happen.  

[SteveA]

15 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well, something has to happen. 

No one will take him, I have to believe.  I mean, even if we paid something ridiculous like 80% of the remaining contract, no one would take him.  Someone MIGHT take him if he was at a 120 OPS+ or something somewhat respectable...but he's not.  In other words, you can't give him away.  You can't pay someone to take him.  

I don't see him retiring.  There's too many years on that contract and too much money just to walk away.  I mean, it'd be cool if he did but I don't think he does.  

IMO, that leaves the option of a buyout as the most realistic and best shot that the Orioles have of getting him off the roster.  If I am Angelos, DD, Brady, whoever, I am talking to his agent about what it would take to get him to retire and move on.  

He is getting paid until 2032 or 2037 or something ridiculous like that.  That's where I start.  Retire now, keep the deferred payments (something like a total of 42 million or so) until the end.  Essentially get paid handsomely until you're well into your 50s to do nothing and walk away.  Maybe move the dollars around little bit, give him slightly more money per year.  Get creative.  Start a conversation.  

To me, I think that's the most realistic thing that can happen.  

I think the best thing that can happen (not saying it is likely) is:

1) Trumbo continues to hit pretty well

2) We get SOMETHING (a C level prospect) for Trumbo in a deal, even if we have to pay some of his salary for the next year and a half.

3) Davis moves to DHvsRH and bats 7th or 8th the rest of the year.   His OPS stays historically bad.   After the year we do the inevitable and obvious and eat the rest of his contract.

4) Mancini moves to first.

5) We now have room in the outfield to bring up at least 2 of Stewart, Mullins, Hays.   We get rid of dead-weight like Gentry, Alvarez.

At least then we would begin to see some distant light at the end of the tunnel.   Some of the dead weight would be off the roster immediately, then Davis would be gone before next Opening Day.   We would have 4 or 5 recent graduates of our farm system playing and learning at the major league level, at least to give us an idea of what we have.   (Sisco, Hess, Mullins, Stewart, Mancini, maybe Hays, maybe Dosch after a Manny trade, maybe Mountcastle).     Sure, if they suck some fans would sour on them just as they did on Santander by the end of his 45 days.   But at least for a month or so we would have a reason to tune in.  

Seeing Gentry/Susac/Valencia/Rickard/Alvarez/Peterson get 40-50% of our total team at bats is downright depressing, let alone Davis.   We know none of those guys are part of any long term solution, and it's not like they are providing short term value either.   When you have a chance down 1 in the 9th and get a man on and you are sending Gentry to the plate, sending Rickard to the plate, pinch hitting Susac for all that is holy in this world -- my God that is just soul-deadening.   It's made a great fan like Frobby stop watching the games.   Honestly, it  hurts us here on OH more than the casual fans who probably don't realize just how bad these guys are.   The guy who knows three or four players on the team and brings the wife and kids to 5 or 6 games a year might not be as depressed watching as we are because he doesn't realize just how much of this roster is filled with non-major league players that no other team in MLB gave a major league offer to (Tillman, Rasmus, Valencia, Alvarez, Susac, Vielma, Sardinas, Gentry) or would have if they had been available (Wright, Ynoa, Cortes, Rickard etc) this offseason.

And maybe that's why the organization doesn't care.   There are a lot more of those casual fans than of us fanatics who know the players and the minor league system.   Yes, losing will cause a dropoff in attendance from all type of fans, but the # of fans who are savvy enough to say we would rather lose with guys like Mullins and Mountcastle getting a shot, while common on OH, are probably just a tiny, tiny percentage of the million + fans who pay for tickets.   Many of those fans probably say, hey, I know Joey Rickard, nice to see a familiar face, darn, we lost the game.

[foxfield]

2 hours ago, SteveA said:

I think the best thing that can happen (not saying it is likely) is:

1) Trumbo continues to hit pretty well

2) We get SOMETHING (a C level prospect) for Trumbo in a deal, even if we have to pay some of his salary for the next year and a half.

3) Davis moves to DHvsRH and bats 7th or 8th the rest of the year.   His OPS stays historically bad.   After the year we do the inevitable and obvious and eat the rest of his contract.

4) Mancini moves to first.

5) We now have room in the outfield to bring up at least 2 of Stewart, Mullins, Hays.   We get rid of dead-weight like Gentry, Alvarez.

At least then we would begin to see some distant light at the end of the tunnel.   Some of the dead weight would be off the roster immediately, then Davis would be gone before next Opening Day.   We would have 4 or 5 recent graduates of our farm system playing and learning at the major league level, at least to give us an idea of what we have.   (Sisco, Hess, Mullins, Stewart, Mancini, maybe Hays, maybe Dosch after a Manny trade, maybe Mountcastle).     Sure, if they suck some fans would sour on them just as they did on Santander by the end of his 45 days.   But at least for a month or so we would have a reason to tune in.  

Seeing Gentry/Susac/Valencia/Rickard/Alvarez/Peterson get 40-50% of our total team at bats is downright depressing, let alone Davis.   We know none of those guys are part of any long term solution, and it's not like they are providing short term value either.   When you have a chance down 1 in the 9th and get a man on and you are sending Gentry to the plate, sending Rickard to the plate, pinch hitting Susac for all that is holy in this world -- my God that is just soul-deadening.   It's made a great fan like Frobby stop watching the games.   Honestly, it  hurts us here on OH more than the casual fans who probably don't realize just how bad these guys are.   The guy who knows three or four players on the team and brings the wife and kids to 5 or 6 games a year might not be as depressed watching as we are because he doesn't realize just how much of this roster is filled with non-major league players that no other team in MLB gave a major league offer to (Tillman, Rasmus, Valencia, Alvarez, Susac, Vielma, Sardinas, Gentry) or would have if they had been available (Wright, Ynoa, Cortes, Rickard etc) this offseason.

And maybe that's why the organization doesn't care.   There are a lot more of those casual fans than of us fanatics who know the players and the minor league system.   Yes, losing will cause a dropoff in attendance from all type of fans, but the # of fans who are savvy enough to say we would rather lose with guys like Mullins and Mountcastle getting a shot, while common on OH, are probably just a tiny, tiny percentage of the million + fans who pay for tickets.   Many of those fans probably say, hey, I know Joey Rickard, nice to see a familiar face, darn, we lost the game.

Outstanding!!!