Olney and Ravech: O's are hemorrhaging Machado's trade value

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Chavez Ravine said:

I may be just whistling past the graveyard, but I think Manny's trade value was always overblown, particularly in this "we know what we are doing"  environment. Manny has been too big to trade for the last last two or three years. Why trade 2-3 proto Sotos for 2-3 years of prime time Manny if you have convinced yourself that the proto sotos are going to become Sotos in 1-3 years? Plus  what you really need to get you over the hump is a red hot pitcher or two for a month and a half.

 

I do think some folks have had an inflated opinion of what a return would be (including the owner).  During the off-season I think they could have done pretty well.

[tntoriole]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I do think some folks have had an inflated opinion of what a return would be (including the owner).  During the off-season I think they could have done pretty well.

I agree.  I think the return is going to be much less than what most expect.   At this point.   He had an entire range where this could have returned much more starting in the winter after the 2016 season with two full years left to go to this offseason...but that is all water under the bridge.     Now,  all that remains is to see what a deadline deal looks like  (and pray he doesn't get hurt between now and then).

[eddie83]

To me, they need a team that thinks Manny is the difference between winning a division instead of a WC. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, eddie83 said:

To me, they need a team that thinks Manny is the difference between winning a division instead of a WC. 

And that team is going to want him as soon as possible.

[eddie83]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And that team is going to want him as soon as possible.

Peter knows best.  

[Chavez Ravine]

8 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

To me, they need a team that thinks Manny is the difference between winning a division instead of a WC. 

The data/ we are building something special people will say that is nutty. Those people kept the Tigers from signing Chris Davis, so they have cred..even among owners.

[weams]

Quote

• The Dodgers will continue to monitor Manny Machado’s availability, as L.A. still has interest in the star shortstop.  Machado and the Dodgers have been linked in trade rumors ever since Corey Seager was lost for the season, and with Los Angeles getting back into the postseason hunt after an early-season slump, Machado continues to look like a logical trade candidate.

MLBTR

[Chavez Ravine]

5 minutes ago, weams said:

MLBTR

I am spitballing the offer:

A medium-hyped pitching prospect

A flawed position prospect with one or two sterling skills.

A AAAA nugget.

 

[Hallas]

54 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I do think some folks have had an inflated opinion of what a return would be (including the owner).  During the off-season I think they could have done pretty well.

What would you expect back?  While it's a bit of luck in terms of hoping that teams that need Machado in the playoff race have prospects to give, the wins they pay for at the deadline are worth objectively more down the stretch of a pennant run, so I don't think that we would have gotten more in the off-season.  If you don't trust the team to do it right at the deadline, then I don't see how you'd trust them to do it right at any other time.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Hallas said:

What would you expect back?  While it's a bit of luck in terms of hoping that teams that need Machado in the playoff race have prospects to give, the wins they pay for at the deadline are worth objectively more down the stretch of a pennant run, so I don't think that we would have gotten more in the off-season.  If you don't trust the team to do it right at the deadline, then I don't see how you'd trust them to do it right at any other time.

I've tossed out a package in that game Tony set up and assigned values in the offseason.  I don't think the increase in win value in the playoffs offsets both the value of the QO and the fact that the pool of potential suitors would have been much greater in the offseason.

[Brion McClanahan]

On ‎6‎/‎22‎/‎2018 at 3:50 PM, Frobby said:

Meh, I don’t know about Machado’s value hemorrhaging.   On the one hand, clearly 2 months of Machado is worth less than 4 months of Machado.    On the other hand, the trade deadline creates an auction mentality that doesn’t exist in June.   There’s a reason why 75% of mid-season trades occur within a few days of the deadline.

This most reasonable post in this thread. 

[Hallas]

51 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I've tossed out a package in that game Tony set up and assigned values in the offseason.  I don't think the increase in win value in the playoffs offsets both the value of the QO and the fact that the pool of potential suitors would have been much greater in the offseason.

The surplus value of the comp pick for making a QO is something like 12-15 million.  If we can't beat that in trade, either at the deadline or in the offseason, then we have serious problems.  W/R/T offseason trade vs deadline trade, it could honestly go either way depending on your read of the market.  I care more about the execution, which I think we can both agree that between Angelos and Brady meddling, is a serious concern.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Hallas said:

The surplus value of the comp pick for making a QO is something like 12-15 million.  If we can't beat that in trade, either at the deadline or in the offseason, then we have serious problems.  W/R/T offseason trade vs deadline trade, it could honestly go either way depending on your read of the market.  I care more about the execution, which I think we can both agree that between Angelos and Brady meddling, is a serious concern.

I think they can beat the value of the comp pick.  The question is can they beat it by enough to satisfy the owner?  I don't think for a second that simply beating the value of the pick will be enough.

[jgjbanker]

I think at this point a couple of teams get desperate at the trade deadline and start a bidding war. Only sense I can make out of it. 

[atomic]

14 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

And that team is going to want him as soon as possible.

Then they need to make an offer the Orioles can't refuse.  You still hold onto the misguided view the earlier you trade you get more value when that isn't true.