The Case For: Drew Dosch

[Legend_Of_Joey]

This is my next contribution in my "The Case of" series, following Johnny Giavotella, Corban Joseph, and Austin Wynns. All 3 made it to the Orioles MLB team that season.

This one is also the most requested, as Dosch is a perennial fan favorite in the minors.

First, let's break down his numbers!

After missing some time due to a hamstring injury, Dosch has done a great job at hitting AAA pitching.

In 55 games (198 AB's), Dosch has pounded out 60 hits, with 18 of them doubles, 1 triple, and 2 that left the park. This comes out to a .303 average. As a further break down, he has a .362 OBP, .588 SLG, and .827 OPS.

Dosch is a doubles machine, with 113 for his career. He is a gap power hitter, mainly splitting the defense. In the bandbox called "Camden Yards," (and to a lesser extent, Yankees Stadium) a few of those could carry out, potentially giving him 5-7 more home runs a season.

His downside is his free swinging. He has 17 walks in Norfolk this season, which puts him in the middle of the pack there. Not too bad, but he also has 59 strike outs, second most on the team (thank you Garabez Rosa.)

Dosch and his hitting have never been the big issue. Dosch has always had good power to the gaps. His defense has been the issue.

Since Renato Nunez was picked up off the waiver wire heap, Dosch has almost exclusively been DH/1st base. This complicates things as there are several 1st basemen in Baltimore already. However, he came up as a 3rd baseman and is probably still working there behind the scenes, as he needs to cut down on the errors (5 in 33 games there this season, 61 overall in his career in 498 games there.)

That is the single BIGGEST thing holding him in the minors. IF he is working on it and can tighten up his defense, his offensive numbers make him a very, VERY interesting look.

How does he compare to his Baltimore peeps?

4 players have played at 3rd this season. 1 is now in Norfolk, 1 made his MLB debut last week, 1 just came off the 60 day DL, and 1 could be traded.

Danny Valencia: .286 Avg, with 50 hits, 7 doubles, 1 triple, 8 home runs 19 walks and 36 strike outs in 55 games. Valencia has mashed lefties and has been in a few trade discusions (mainly on here, but still...) Any team that needs a right handed bat to go against the lefties will call the Orioles, who should be in "sell mode."

Tim Beckham: .188 Avg, with 18 hits, 5 doubles, 1 home run. 16 walks to 36 strike outs. Beckham just got off the 60 day DL, so there is that. However, after coming over to Baltimore last year and going on a "I'll show you, Tampa Bay!" run, he has become a "thanks for taking him off our hands, Baltimore!" type of player. Questionable as a shortstop, palled as a 3rd baseman. Most likely candidate to take over shortstop though when (well, IF with management...) Machado gets traded, opening that spot.

Pedro Alvarez: Yeah, he is really a DH and is now in Norfolk. I think the Orioles signed him with a clause in his contract "if you even look at a glove, you will be fined." Not an issue here.

Steve Wilkerson: The newest infielder to the Orioles (through the system), Wilkerson is Dosch's biggest wall. 2 Hits, 1 walk, 2 strike outs in only 10 at bats. Wilkerson has a better glove that Dosch and has made several highlight plays already. Wilkerson is also a switch hitter, eliminating most of those "matchup" issues that causes managers to pinch hit for players. However, Wilkerson is thought more of as a "utility infielder," a role that Jace Peterson currently holds. If/When Peterson goes, that spot opens for Wilkerson. Combined with Machado going and Beckham taking over at short, 3rd base suddenly becomes open!

Now, why did I mention Wilkerson being a switch hitter? Well, Dosch is a lefty. While we don't know how long Buck will be here, he does like to platoon players. If Valencia stays, platooning him with Dosch while Beckham takes shortstop provides a true righty/lefty split. The games where Dosch is starting, Wilkerson can come off the bench to shore up the defense later in the game if the Orioles somehow have a lead. Dosch could also pinch hit later on against a right handed reliever and have Wilkerson take the defensive spot, if they are so worried about his defense.

Why should the Orioles choose him over Renato Nunez, the power swinging infielder who bullied Dosch away from the hot corner? Nunez has just almost as many errors at 3rd in less games as Dosch in Norfolk, with more in the MLB and in the PCL before coming over. He came over and swung a hot bat to start, but has since cooled down a bit and come back to earth. Has as many walks as Dosch and has only slightly less strike outs (36) in far fewer games, so the grass isn't greener (or the dirt isn't any...um, dirtier) across the diamond right now.

Will a few things have to work right for Dosch to get a chance? Yes. But, the Orioles have shown that they are willing to play the kids right now (Wilkerson, Wynns, Joseph, Cor., Hess, Rameriez, Meisinger, Fry), this would be a great opporunity to see what they have at 3rd going into the off season. He has certainly used his bat well in the minors to deserve a shot, especially going through this lost season. Not only that, but Dosch has been attracting a lot of attention from the Orioles, drawing a lot of praise on MASN during Orioles games. Coincidence?

I do expect the tweet "Orioles select contract of Drew Dosch from Norfolk" sometime between now and the end of the season. Hopefully you all too.

[amdcpus]

Yeah I'm guessing we'll see him up sometime soon. Looks solid.

[eddie83]

They have to wait until Manny is gone. They need to make a decision on Beckham for the future. 

Wilkerson is a utility player, the Orioles don’t view him as an everyday player. That is why he is here. 

[Lucky_13]

I've been beating the Dosch drum all season. Hope it happens

[TheOtherRipken]

Not totally sure I understand the huge push for Dosch. He cannot hit lefties and hasn’t hit well enough in his career thus far for a corner player.  A lot of strikeouts considering not a ton of power, and the OP already addressed the defense.

I understand the mentality of “lets see what we have” but I struggle to see the projections here.  

[sportsfan8703]

I think he and Renato Nunez get looks once Machado is traded and Beckham slides over to SS. 

[webbrick2010]

Why do the O's have so many players in their system that can't field a position?

[Jammer7]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think he and Renato Nunez get looks once Machado is traded and Beckham slides over to SS. 

I agree. If Nunez could just be average at 3B, he can stick. That dude has crushed in the minors. Dosch has a nice LH bat.

[Tx Oriole]

46 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Why do the O's have so many players in their system that can't field a position?

Kind of sad isn't it? 

[bobmc]

Local boy makes good!  OH strong!

 

 

[Tony-OH]

I appreciate the work and background in the OP, great job.

The problem with Dosch is "what is he at the major league level?"

Let's start with the bat. He's got a little bit of a hit tool against righties, but it comes with well below average power. He can't hit lefties so he's a platoon guy at best,

Defensively he's a below average third baseman and he doesn't have the foot quickness to play second effectively or they would have tried him there by now. 

So what do you have? Basically he's a lot like Howie Clark, but without the ability to play the outfield, so if he's going to get a major league chance he's going to have to hit right away to keep getting chances.

Without power and any plus defensive or speed skills, Dosch is a classic AAA guy who can hit a little against right-handers but doesn't bring enough other aspects to get him a full-time major league job and isn't versatile enough to carry as a utility guy.

With the Orioles already awash in first baseman, and the fact the organization choose to move him to 1B for Renaldo Nunez, tells me he's behind him as well as Wilkerson for any role on the major league squad.

He's a fun guy to root for since he's been in the system awhile, and with as many guys getting chances and trades coming up he could sneak his way onto the team for a look, but ultimately he's a AAA guy.

By the way, I watched a couple Norfolk games and Nunez is not a good defensive 3B either.

[Camden_yardbird]

All I know is that I have seen this guy twice, and both times he looked like the best hitter on the team.  Maybe not the best results, but knew what he was doing at the plate, made good contact, and generally looked like a complete hitter.

The first time I didn't know his name, so i wasn't paying particular attention.  By the end of the game I had seen several good at bats.

I would welcome giving him a chance.  I think if you can give him 150-200 ABs this year that you would find someone who could contribute regularly by the end.

[jamalshw]

So...he's a bad defender at 3B and doesn't have the power to play 1B or DH. With a platoon type bat, the next question is: can he play a corner outfield spot? Has he gotten the chance to play there at all?

[Luke-OH]

11 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

So...he's a bad defender at 3B and doesn't have the power to play 1B or DH. With a platoon type bat, the next question is: can he play a corner outfield spot? Has he gotten the chance to play there at all?

They haven't tried him there for one reason or another, most likely because they've deemed the bat as not good enough to warrant the experiment. Just from his athleticism, maybe he's Mancini in LF with a stronger arm, but likely not as accurate. 

[Legend_Of_Joey]

8 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I appreciate the work and background in the OP, great job.

The problem with Dosch is "what is he at the major league level?"

Let's start with the bat. He's got a little bit of a hit tool against righties, but it comes with well below average power. He can't hit lefties so he's a platoon guy at best,

Defensively he's a below average third baseman and he doesn't have the foot quickness to play second effectively or they would have tried him there by now. 

So what do you have? Basically he's a lot like Howie Clark, but without the ability to play the outfield, so if he's going to get a major league chance he's going to have to hit right away to keep getting chances.

Without power and any plus defensive or speed skills, Dosch is a classic AAA guy who can hit a little against right-handers but doesn't bring enough other aspects to get him a full-time major league job and isn't versatile enough to carry as a utility guy.

With the Orioles already awash in first baseman, and the fact the organization choose to move him to 1B for Renaldo Nunez, tells me he's behind him as well as Wilkerson for any role on the major league squad.

He's a fun guy to root for since he's been in the system awhile, and with as many guys getting chances and trades coming up he could sneak his way onto the team for a look, but ultimately he's a AAA guy.

By the way, I watched a couple Norfolk games and Nunez is not a good defensive 3B either.

Thanks Tony.

His "well below average power" is a bit true, but he seems to find the gaps pretty well. Not expecting him to put up 15 home runs a season, but could rack up a few doubles. I understand his hit production will go down a bit with better outfielders (unless he faces the Orioles with the current group...)

Being platooned to face right handed pitchers wouldn't be an issue, depending who the next manager is. If he makes it up here with Buck, platooning is Buck's middle name.

With defense, yeah, he will have some issues. But...Is he as bad, or worse, than Valencia or Beckham? Wilkerson is out, so there goes his only real competition there.

With regards to Renato Nunez, I feel like they moved Dosch off for Nunez due to Nunes having MLB experience and being more of a power bat. That is the stuff GM's dream of, until is crashes down on them.

Is he going to be a 5 year MLB veteran? Nah. But is he doing enough to atleast get a look, after all the other crap the Orioles have pulled up during the years and atleast see what they have with him? Yes. Depth is good.

Don't worry Tony, I'll write one for Garabez Rosa soon.