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bpilktree67

By bpilktree67
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TonySoprano Hangout Grand Counsel

TonySoprano

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Tony, I think you're missing the point. You're right, the #1 pick isn't usually the best player in the draft, and we ALL recognize that. Some years it's the 3rd pick, and others it's the 17th pick, or 38th pick, that turns out to be the best player, but you keep skipping over what Frobby's post shows: Historically, when comparing the slots, #1 picks are better, by far, than any other.  Are you saying it doesn't matter what slot you have? Do you support the "crap shoot" theory?

He's still wrong, at least going back to 2001.
Look at my list again, yes, #1 was the best slot 3 times, but #7 "wins" 4 times.  In 2003 and 2006, it's not even close, #7 "wins" by a large margin.  So much for "by far."

2014  Aiken 0; Nola 14.2 (7)
2006 Hochevar 3.6; Kershaw 61.9 (7), Longoria 50.3 (3), Scherzer 49.3 (11)
2005 Upton 33.3; Tulowitzki 44.1 (7), Gordon 34.2 (2)
2003 Young 2.4; Markakis 32.2 (7), Hill 23.7 (13), Danks 20.3 (9)

Twice, the best pick was #5
2008 Beckham 4.1; Posey 40.3 (5), Hosmer 15.7 (3)
2011 Cole 14.5; Lindor 20.2 (18)

Even #18 ruled the round
2011 Cole 14.5; Lindor 20.2 (18)

Then there was a certain 25th pick
2009 Strasburg 25.9; Trout 60.7 (25)

#2 beats #1 three times
2013 Appel N/A ; Bryant 21.4 (2)
2005 Upton 33.3; Tulowitzki 44.1 (7), Gordon 34.2 (2)
2004 Bush 2.3; Verlander 60.9 (2), Weaver 34.4 (12)

Call it a crap shoot or call it bad luck.  Unless there's someone so far above the crowd next year, #1 may not end up being the best of the round either

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eddie83 Hangout Grand Counsel

eddie83

Posted
Posted
On 8/27/2018 at 12:08 AM, Greg Pappas said:

The draft standings updated after Sunday's games-- 8/26/18.  
--In the event of a tie at season's end, the Orioles will pick before KC--

1. Orioles 37-94 (.282)

2. Royals 40-91 (.305)  /  3.0 GB 

Forgot to update. 

28.

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eddie83 Hangout Grand Counsel

eddie83

Posted
Posted

So the Orioles have 30 games left and head to head vs KC this weekend. 

If Orioles go/KC gets top pick if 

13-17                 10-21

12-18                  9-22

11-19                 8-23

10-20                7-24 

This weekend will obviously add some clarity.  

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
Posted
On 8/26/2018 at 2:42 PM, TonySoprano said:

Between first and second is one way to look at it.  "Anywhere else?"  That's simply not the case.  Between #1 and the rest of the round is a broader sample size.  From 2001-13, 10 times the player with the highest career WAR picked in the first round, was not the one selected first overall. 

Update - For 2014, currently the WAR leader is Aaron Nola, drafted 7th; Brady Aiken was the first overall pick. 2015's leader is Alex Bregman, selected with the #2 pick;  Dansby Swanson, the top pick, is 3rd in WAR behind Bregman and Benitendi.  For those keeping score, that's 12 of 15 where the top value was found after the first pick.

Yeah, I'll keep beating this drum (because I don't want to work)

 

 

On 8/26/2018 at 4:28 PM, TonySoprano said:

He's still wrong, at least going back to 2001.
Look at my list again, yes, #1 was the best slot 3 times, but #7 "wins" 4 times.  In 2003 and 2006, it's not even close, #7 "wins" by a large margin.  So much for "by far."

2014  Aiken 0; Nola 14.2 (7)
2006 Hochevar 3.6; Kershaw 61.9 (7), Longoria 50.3 (3), Scherzer 49.3 (11)
2005 Upton 33.3; Tulowitzki 44.1 (7), Gordon 34.2 (2)
2003 Young 2.4; Markakis 32.2 (7), Hill 23.7 (13), Danks 20.3 (9)

Twice, the best pick was #5
2008 Beckham 4.1; Posey 40.3 (5), Hosmer 15.7 (3)
2011 Cole 14.5; Lindor 20.2 (18)

Even #18 ruled the round
2011 Cole 14.5; Lindor 20.2 (18)

Then there was a certain 25th pick
2009 Strasburg 25.9; Trout 60.7 (25)

#2 beats #1 three times
2013 Appel N/A ; Bryant 21.4 (2)
2005 Upton 33.3; Tulowitzki 44.1 (7), Gordon 34.2 (2)
2004 Bush 2.3; Verlander 60.9 (2), Weaver 34.4 (12)

Call it a crap shoot or call it bad luck.  Unless there's someone so far above the crowd next year, #1 may not end up being the best of the round either

I don’t think we really disagree on anything.    I’ve never suggested that the no. 1 pick in the draft was likely to turn out to be the best player in the draft — in fact, I’ve noted the opposite many times.    But it’s also true that the no. 1 spot has had the best overall yield of any spot, and I’m confident it would beat any other spot in a head-to-head analysis along the lines of the 1 vs. 2 analysis I did.   So, in summary, I’d rather pick no. 1 than no. 2 or any other spot, but no. 1 doesn’t guarantee anything and you certainly can get great results if you make the right pick somewhere else.     

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:

If you pick #1 and you get it wrong everyone sees it. If you get it right, well, you were supposed to.

What does it mean to be “wrong?”   If you pick a guy who ends up being worth 20 WAR should you be upset?

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atomic Hangout Grand Counsel

atomic

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What does it mean to be “wrong?”   If you pick a guy who ends up being worth 20 WAR should you be upset?

I think the whole coming in last place is overrated though. So you increase your odds of getting a good player?  Not that much excitement. It isn't like in other sports where you see a Lebron James or Alexander Ovechkin available and everyone knows the guy is a future hall of famer in the making. 

 

During a 3 year span the #1 overalls were Brian Bullington, Delmon Young, and Matt Bush. Combined they had less than 5 WAR.   Point is you might get someone great or you might get someone who doesn't even contribute at major league level.  Maybe if you finish in last 3 times it ups your odds.  Looking at how things are going that seems like a good possiblity. 

 

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TonySoprano Hangout Grand Counsel

TonySoprano

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Frobby said:

What does it mean to be “wrong?”   If you pick a guy who ends up being worth 20 WAR should you be upset?

Houston had the top pick 3 years in a row.  It was by design because ownership slashed payroll.  
2012  Carlos Correa 18.8 WAR
2013 Mark Appel - out of baseball, topped out at AAA .  That would be my definition of "wrong." ( https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2757009-why-mark-appel-perhaps-the-biggest-bust-in-mlb-history-is-retiring-at-26 )
2014 Brady Aiken, didn't sign, went back into 2015 draft.  In 2015, the Astros picked Bregman #2 with the comp pick.  But hey, the Astros had 2 picks in the 2015 first round, the other being that household name Kyle Tucker at #5.  

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atomic Hangout Grand Counsel

atomic

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, TonySoprano said:

Houston had the top pick 3 years in a row.  It was by design because ownership slashed payroll.  
 2012  Carlos Correa 18.8 WAR
 2013 Mark Appel - out of baseball, topped out at AAA .  That would be my definition of "wrong." ( https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2757009-why-mark-appel-perhaps-the-biggest-bust-in-mlb-history-is-retiring-at-26 )
2014 Brady Aiken, didn't sign, went back into 2015 draft.  In 2015, the Astros picked Bregman #2 with the comp pick.  But hey, the Astros had 2 picks in the 2015 first round, the other being that household name Kyle Tucker at #5.  

Interestingly the Pirates drafted Appel #8 in 2012.  They didn't sign him got the 9th pick the next year and drafted Austin Meadows who was a key piece in the Archer deal the Pirates just completed.  

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