The Rebuild - Retool Discussion

[Roll Tide]

So the Orioles seem to finally have something working in their favor. There is plenty of competition for Machado (7-8) teams before rumors of rekindled interest by the Yankees and Red Sox.

We keep hearing that this team or that team won't give up this guy or that guy. By rumors no one is available from the Dodgers LOL ..... Guess they want the Orioles to send him over for good will.

Anyway it seems that Britton is get right at the perfect time and their is also interest in Brach & Givens. The other day we heard that a team or two might be interested in Gausman. Not sure if he's going to be made available but considering his up and downs and the time until we can be competitive again he should be! Perhaps Schoop can regain value and be flipped in the off season? 

So what if we could trade Manny, Britton, Brach, Givens, and Jones for solid returns. Would our farm system look like the White Sox in a couple seasons after their rebuild? Could the time between our next competitive team be shortened like the Phillies?

Thoughts??

 

[Hotdiggity]

Too early to tell. This conversation is best had on August 1st. Way too many ways the FO can screw this golden opportunity up. 

[FlipTheBird]

40 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

So the Orioles seem to finally have something working in their favor. There is plenty of competition for Machado (7-8) teams before rumors of rekindled interest by the Yankees and Red Sox.

We keep hearing that this team or that team won't give up this guy or that guy. By rumors no one is available from the Dodgers LOL ..... Guess they want the Orioles to send him over for good will.

Anyway it seems that Britton is get right at the perfect time and their is also interest in Brach & Givens. The other day we heard that a team or two might be interested in Gausman. Not sure if he's going to be made available but considering his up and downs and the time until we can be competitive again he should be! Perhaps Schoop can regain value and be flipped in the off season? 

So what if we could trade Manny, Britton, Brach, Givens, and Jones for solid returns. Would our farm system look like the White Sox in a couple seasons after their rebuild? Could the time between our next competitive team be shortened like the Phillies?

Thoughts??

 

This is always tough to gauge. I think the Dodgers' unwillingness to move someone like Verdugo is probably real... but Lux or May, less so. Thing is, it behooves the Dodgers to have sources "leak" that May and Lux aren't on the table.

Why? Because it keeps other teams from driving prices UP. All part of the crazy game. All we can really do is wait and see what happens and assess in the aftermath.

Things are shaping up nicely right now for the O's (ignoring how they might handle it). Machado is absolutely raking - after tonight, he'll have the 8th highest OPS in baseball, behind only a bevy of other mega-studs. Britton seems to be leveling off. Just have to be patient.

[hoosiers]

The case for a short rebuild (two or three years) involves IMO so many prospects reaching their full potential that the odds would be quite long.

It will not be a short re-build.  I don't think there are any multi-year all-star caliber guys in our system and it doesn't appear we will pick up any in these trades.  I do not believe I have heard any 60 rated prospects heading our way in these deals - yet.  I hope that between MM and ZB that we net four or five guys who are 50+ rated guys.  You can couple those guys with Mullins, McKenna, Hays, Cisco, Mancini, Lowther, Hall and GrayRod and others to have a nice core to a future team, but we will likely be short of higher end talent.  Nothing wrong with that - except in Bmore we have trouble attracting top free agents here.  Our rebuild is also extended above that of normal teams because of the lack of international spending.

I think we are looking at a minimum of three years with top five draft picks.  We can hope several of those picks are top college pitchers who will arrive the same time as DL Hall and GrayRod around 2021-22 to form the core of a young strong rotation that might also include Gausman, Bundy, Harvey, Lowther, etc.

The White Sox farm is strong because of two crazy trades that netted (Eloy Jimenez, Cease, Lopez, Giolito, Dunning and other) plus the Sale trade (Kopech), high draft picks and international spend.  It doesn't appear that we will receive any guys rated at 60 for MM or ZB compared to the guys just mentioned - BA has a 70 grade on Jimenez and 65 on Kopech.  We do not appear to be in line to collect high end talent of that nature with this trade deadline.

 

[25 Nuggets]

I kind of agree, but I hedge my bet on rebuild, not retool.

Look, the Orioles are on pace to lose well over 100 games.  They are in the running for the #1 pick in next year's draft.  There is a long, long way to go to get to be a contender again.

That said, there are some moves that make more immediate sense than others.  The following players should be moved as soon as possible:

1. Manny Machado - duh.
2. Zach Britton - because his ERA is starting to drop as he shakes his rust off, and the Os could even resign him next year at a lower salary than he is making this year.
3. Adam Jones - another rental whose bat can still help a team if they move him off CF for goodness sake.  Consider Cleveland here who just lost Lonnie Chisenhall.
4. Brad Brach - for anything.  He is 32 and no longer cost efficient.
5. Danny Valencia - for something.  He can still be a platoon bat / bench guy for a playoff team.

Those guys are all up at the end of 2018.  There is NO REASON to keep them.  Even if you want them back in 2019!  This is what the Yankees did with Aroldis Chapman.  They sent him to the Cubs for Gleyber freaking Torres (+3!) and still signed him back the following year.  We may not even get a Torres for Machado, but we'll get close to it.

But you can go further than that.  Guys up after 2019:

• Mark Trumbo - 121 OPS+, he's hitting again and his contract isn't that exorbitant.
• Andrew Cashner - team option for 2020... but he's just the kind of middling SP that some playoff contender will overpay for, and presumably his replacement will come from somewhere among the prospects in return.
• Jonathan Schoop - maaaybe the team can get him back.  But really?  I don't think so.  His bat is starting to heat up.

That's a lot of players that can go and will probably not impact the team in 2020 and beyond.  Plus there's still Bundy, Gausman. Cobb and all the young position players.  Some of those guys will pan out.  But the farm system simply has to get stronger overall and there's no other way to do it other than trade and draft.

[Frobby]

This is going to take a while.    We shouldn’t shortcut the process.    Obviously a lot depends on how the prospects develop.     But it’s not all going to go smoothly.    There will be disappointments.

[Tx Oriole]

8 hours ago, Hotdiggity said:

Too early to tell. This conversation is best had on August 1st. Way too many ways the FO can screw this golden opportunity up. 

That's what I'm afraid they'll do. 

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

This is going to take a while.    We shouldn’t shortcut the process.    Obviously a lot depends on how the prospects develop.     But it’s not all going to go smoothly.    There will be disappointments.

Yep, they need a star or a crop of above average players to build around. It would take a lot going right from the current crop for that to happen. There are plenty of guys in the Orioles system who project as solid regulars, but no real big upside impact. 

[foxfield]

I had a dream.....

The Orioles get the deal they want for Manny.  Britton heats up and gets a decent return as well.  Brach and Jones go for potential pieces.  In a surprise move the Orioles move Trumbo.

Orioles hire a GM and announce they will no longer block activity on the foreign markets.

Buck retained, Brady released.

O's in a surprise move....resign AJ to play RF.

Orioles Eat money and move Chris Davis to Yankees.  He of course explodes and brings them another title.

Orioles resign Manny.

WS in 2019.

 

To dream....the impossible dream!!!!!

 

[DirtyBird]

9 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

So what if we could trade Manny, Britton, Brach, Givens, and Jones for solid returns. Would our farm system look like the White Sox in a couple seasons after their rebuild? Could the time between our next competitive team be shortened like the Phillies?

Thoughts??

 

We're not going to stack our farm system by trading rentals. If we are doing a full rebuild, decisions need to be made soon on Schoop and Gausman.

I think we can write off 2019 have a competitive team in 2020. Since Schoop is not under control for 2020, we should be making a decision to either trade or extend him by this trade deadline.

[eddie83]

11 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

We're not going to stack our farm system by trading rentals. If we are doing a full rebuild, decisions need to be made soon on Schoop and Gausman.

I think we can write off 2019 have a competitive team in 2020. Since Schoop is not under control for 2020, we should be making a decision to either trade or extend him by this trade deadline.

I think Schoop and Givens would be an interesting package for the Indians. 

Allen and Miller are FA’s at end of year. Kipnis is a mess. They would have Givens for 3 more years and Schoop for one more while still helping them now. They have some of their high end talent under control for awhile but the depth of their team is lacking. Brantley is a FA at end of year. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, eddie83 said:

I think Schoop and Givens would be an interesting package for the Indians. 

Allen and Miller are FA’s at end of year. Kipnis is a mess. They would have Givens for 3 more years and Schoop for one more while still helping them now. They have some of their high end talent under control for awhile but the depth of their team is lacking. Brantley is a FA at end of year. 

Kipnis is actually doing OK, he's been on a hot streak.

[eddie83]

38 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Yep, they need a star or a crop of above average players to build around. It would take a lot going right from the current crop for that to happen. There are plenty of guys in the Orioles system who project as solid regulars, but no real big upside impact. 

I think they will have to be a well rounded team. Funny thing is the best season we had in 2014, Davis was bad and Manny hurt half the season. There is more than one way to win. 

They will have a ton of money off the books. I know the Davis deal hurts. Looking at the Indians roster it is amazing the number of players they have with team options. They tied a bunch up early on and added team control. The Orioles should follow this model. 

[Hank Scorpio]

1 minute ago, eddie83 said:

I think they will have to be a well rounded team. Funny thing is the best season we had in 2014, Davis was bad and Manny hurt half the season. There is more than one way to win. 

They will have a ton of money off the books. I know the Davis deal hurts. Looking at the Indians roster it is amazing the number of players they have with team options. They tied a bunch up early on and added team control. The Orioles should follow this model. 

Bad and then suspended!

We thought he was bad in 2014 hahahaha.... 

[eddie83]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Kipnis is actually doing OK, he's been on a hot streak.

Didn’t realize. Always liked Kipnis but he struggled last year also. 

Looks like something along the lines of what Schoop is doing lately. 

They would love Givens though.