So, how would you characterize the return on the Manny trade?

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, Hallas said:

So you don't buy Manny's comments that the Orioles never called in the offseason?  That would have been Lozano passing the info on to Manny so I could see that happening.  Lozano isn't exactly the most upstanding human being out there.

I buy it, its completely in character for this team.

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, weams said:

I believe that Manny was never ever signing other than when it appeared that his career was in jeopardy. That. 

I don't, but what do I know, other than there is just so much BS out in the media world, that you have to tread through the chaff to pick out the truth.

[weams]

1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

You think a comp pick is more likely to be a potential star over the FIVE guys the Orioles acquired? Gotta disagree.

A comp pick dreams of becoming Diaz. Or Kremer for that matter - to be at the AA level and on the cusp.  What you can hope for with the comp pick is the financial opportunity to overpay for a generational talent if there is one at 1,2, or 3.

[weams]

1 hour ago, Todd-O said:

You've got five names, some numbers, what league they're in... and possibly you saw Diaz play some in the futures game.  

Then you have the national press weighing in, and those guys have about as much information as us.  PLUS, they have to write some kind of opinion and are frequently way off the mark (despite sounding good in the heat of the moment).

So what are you basing any kind of opinion on?  Right now, all the info is extremely limited.

 

 I see absolutely no reason why one or two of these guys might not become really solid contributors at the ML level.  And we're basically get 4 prospects + a utility for 2.5 months of a rental.

Very nice post. Thanks. 

[Hallas]

1 hour ago, droper said:

Maybe I'm wrong, I just can't see these 5 guys to be anything to be excited about and that feels wrong when you get rid of Manny.

You're right.  But top-5 overall prospects are no longer traded for rentals.  Even rentals as good as Manny.  (I believe that he is the best position player deadline chip to be available in the free-agency era.)   Could the Orioles have squeezed a little harder and gotten May or Lux?  maybe.  Big maybe.  But they risk the Dodgers walking.

 

[droper]

12 minutes ago, Hallas said:

You're right.  But top-5 overall prospects are no longer traded for rentals.  Even rentals as good as Manny.  (I believe that he is the best position player deadline chip to be available in the free-agency era.)   Could the Orioles have squeezed a little harder and gotten May or Lux?  maybe.  Big maybe.  But they risk the Dodgers walking.

 

I guess that's where I'm at with it.  It feels empty losing Manny, like its the end of the 1997 season but we know now the O's will be bad for a long time now.

[sportsfan8703]

I think this was a very good return. Lux over Bannon and this would be “outstanding”. Also I don’t think we would have got more if we had traded him during this past offseason. 

[Luke-OH]

2 hours ago, droper said:

I think if there was any confidence in the amateur scouting keeping Manny and taking the pick would have been my preference.  Once they decided to open the season with him on the roster I'd have made sure to get a guy that looks like a potential star instead of a possible solid role player.  That said, I'd deal AJ, Britton and Brach for whatever I could get because there's no way they are offered  a  contract for next year.

 

Do you think there will be 30 players better than Yusniel Diaz available in the 2019 draft so that one is left for the Orioles comp pick?

[Hallas]

6 minutes ago, droper said:

I guess that's where I'm at with it.  It feels empty losing Manny, like its the end of the 1997 season but we know now the O's will be bad for a long time now.

I think another thing is that prospect evaluation has come a long way.  With all the video footage, metrics data, and statistical analysis available nowadays, there's a lot less uncertainty with prospect evaluations.  I don't believe that there will be another Todd Van Poppel type #1 overall prospect again.  The only thing stopping top prospects from becoming good MLB players is severe injury.

 

[clapdiddy]

4 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Do you think there will be 30 players better than Yusniel Diaz available in the 2019 draft so that one is left for the Orioles comp pick?

No way.  This guy is already polished AND appeared in the Futures Game.  

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

Do you think there will be 30 players better than Yusniel Diaz available in the 2019 draft so that one is left for the Orioles comp pick?

Well, there certainly could be a guy at 31 who turns out better than Diaz.   But the odds of us picking that guy aren’t that great.   

A couple of thoughts here.    As I mentioned a few days ago, the average return on the no. 31-35 picks is about 2.5 rWAR.    But if you look at the typical value of the 31st-best player who debuted in a given year, it’s more like 8-9 WAR.   That means that there are a lot of guys picked later in the draft who end up being better than a lot of guys picked ahead of them.    So, I’d much rather have Diaz, who has already cleared a couple of MiL hurdles with flying colors, than hope that my no. 31 pick turns out better than Diaz.  

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, clapdiddy said:

No way.  This guy is already polished AND appeared in the Futures Game.  

This is the correct answer, he'd be a top 10 pick without a doubt. His tools are similar to Jon India's and he's got a .905 OPS in AA. The SEC is more like Low A quality competion. 

 

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Well, there certainly could be a guy at 31 who turns out better than Diaz.   But the odds of us picking that guy aren’t that great.   

A couple of thoughts here.    As I mentioned a few days ago, the average return on the no. 31-35 picks is about 2.5 rWAR.    But if you look at the typical value of the 31st-best player who debuted in a given year, it’s more like 8-9 WAR.   That means that there are a lot of guys picked later in the draft who end up being better than a lot of guys picked ahead of them.    So, I’d much rather have Diaz, who has already cleared a couple of MiL hurdles with flying colors, than hope that my no. 31 pick turns out better than Diaz.  

Good assessment.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Hallas said:

I think another thing is that prospect evaluation has come a long way.  With all the video footage, metrics data, and statistical analysis available nowadays, there's a lot less uncertainty with prospect evaluations.  I don't believe that there will be another Todd Van Poppel type #1 overall prospect again.  The only thing stopping top prospects from becoming good MLB players is severe injury.

 

Oh, I don’t know.   2016 no. 1 pick Mickey Moniak is posting a .614 OPS in high A after posting a .625 in low A last year.   Granted, he’s young for the league (20), but no younger than Mountcastle was last year when he posted an .885 OPS in high A and got promoted to AA.    I’m not saying Moniak is definitely going to bust, but it’s certainly a possibility.    

[Can_of_corn]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, there certainly could be a guy at 31 who turns out better than Diaz.   But the odds of us picking that guy aren’t that great.   

A couple of thoughts here.    As I mentioned a few days ago, the average return on the no. 31-35 picks is about 2.5 rWAR.    But if you look at the typical value of the 31st-best player who debuted in a given year, it’s more like 8-9 WAR.   That means that there are a lot of guys picked later in the draft who end up being better than a lot of guys picked ahead of them.    So, I’d much rather have Diaz, who has already cleared a couple of MiL hurdles with flying colors, than hope that my no. 31 pick turns out better than Diaz.  

Or international players not subject to the draft.

[Hallas]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Oh, I don’t know.   2016 no. 1 pick Mickey Moniak is posting a .614 OPS in high A after posting a .625 in low A last year.   Granted, he’s young for the league (20), but no younger than Mountcastle was last year when he posted an .885 OPS in high A and got promoted to AA.    I’m not saying Moniak is definitely going to bust, but it’s certainly a possibility.    

I would make a pretty big distinction between prospect evaluation and draftee evaluation.  It's really frickin hard to evaluate high schoolers with metal bats, on uneven fields, against uneven competition.  Probably even harder to evaluate Dominican players.

Once they enter the pro system, I believe that the science of figuring out the top players has become quite good.