TT: Orioles get Haul for Machado

[Luke-OH]

On 6/13/2017 at 5:49 PM, Luke-OH said:

I'm just sad they didn't take my sleeper favorite Rylan Bannon, the dodgers grabbed him two picks later.  

Bannon has long been a favorite of mine. I thought he was a 3rd-4th round talent and he's performed even better than I had expected.

53 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

From listening to Dodgers fans, we can't understate the importance of getting Bannon in this trade - as long as he's used at 2nd base.  They think he has all-star potential there - defensively and offensively.  And it sounds like the O's are promoting him to AA - hopefully at 2nd base.  And getting both Kremer and Pop... great job by the O's.  I'm pleasantly surprised.  We need to keep Duq - my guess is that this was primarily his work.   

There are a wide range of opinions on Bannon, I've seen someone (an experienced scout) recently throw a org player grade on him. I think there are risks in the profile, but I think people are mistakenly discounting his power because of the California League and mistakenly discounting his patience (BB rate/on base potential) because they are discounting his power. He's always hit for power since adopting the swing mechanics he uses now. Plus, his home stadium is actually is below average for HRs over the 2014-2016 range and he has a .308 ISO with 11 HRs there in 47 games this year.

[canonfaz]

The fact that we are even having a discussion about the Bedard vs. Manny haul is crazy. Bedard had 2 years of control, Manny has 3 months. Pretty stelar return IMO.

[Luke-OH]

6 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

It is interesting that DD took what I perceive to be lower ceiling, less risky guys - several of whom should see the majors - instead of a couple of lottery tickets at the lower rungs.  It would be nice if our scouts advised on the right guys and Kremer does become a decent starter.

I think they got a good combination of upside and floor, but I do think they need to try and grab star upside somewhere with other moves, whether than be the centerpiece of a Gausman trade or grabbing low level risk/reward types in the Britton deal.

[Aristotelian]

7 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Bannon has long been a favorite of mine. I thought he was a 3rd-4th round talent and he's performed even better than I had expected.

There are a wide range of opinions on Bannon, I've seen someone (an experienced scout) recently throw a org player grade on him. I think there are risks in the profile, but I think people are mistakenly discounting his power because of the California League and mistakenly discounting his patience (BB rate/on base potential) because they are discounting his power. He's always hit for power since adopting the swing mechanics he uses now. Plus, his home stadium is actually is below average for HRs over the 2014-2016 range and he has a .308 ISO with 11 HRs there in 47 games this year.

How do you know all this stuff?

[Ruzious]

12 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Bannon has long been a favorite of mine. I thought he was a 3rd-4th round talent and he's performed even better than I had expected.

There are a wide range of opinions on Bannon, I've seen someone (an experienced scout) recently throw a org player grade on him. I think there are risks in the profile, but I think people are mistakenly discounting his power because of the California League and mistakenly discounting his patience (BB rate/on base potential) because they are discounting his power. He's always hit for power since adopting the swing mechanics he uses now. Plus, his home stadium is actually is below average for HRs over the 2014-2016 range and he has a .308 ISO with 11 HRs there in 47 games this year.

Maybe the scout's only seen him at 3B.  Apparently, his arm is a bit off-target playing there.  And some old-school scouts probably look at his height and don't realize being short doesn't mean he lacks power.  Could also be that he was a bit of a late bloomer - I think it wasn't till his junior year in college that he really came on.  Edit - Oh, I just saw where you had him as a sleeper pick - well done!

[Just Regular]

11 minutes ago, canonfaz said:

The fact that we are even having a discussion about the Bedard vs. Manny haul is crazy. Bedard had 2 years of control, Manny has 3 months. Pretty stelar return IMO.

I dunno...as bright as Bedard burned for a bit, I do think Manny is at least twice the player he was, and I am onboard with triple.

In 2008-2009, Bedard only produced 3 rWAR total for Seattle, and missed half the season both times, before he went whole hog and missed all of 2010.  3 rWAR is probably a good over/under for what Manny will give the Dodgers this year.

[stockpile]

Dan's comments yesterday were very promising and uncharacteristically revealing.  When left to do his job, I think Dan has proven to be a very effective GM / team builder.  I just listened to "The Rise and Fall of the 1994 Expos" special on SiriusXM yesterday, and Dan spoke of his 3 year plan to build the Expos into the best team in baseball by 1994.  It's a shame that team never got to prove itself in the World Series, because it was a great team.    

If Dan orchestrated the Machado trade and truly has a multi faceted plan, I hope Lou and John give him the keys to the car and let him drive it to the finish line.  That would include deciding on Buck's future, reigning in Brady as a subordinate as opposed to a second or even third faction of leadership within the warehouse (Game of Thrones situation that Tony wrote about is hopefully over).   Dan did an overall great job with this team until the whole Toronto thing opened the door for fractured leadership and the corresponding subsequent decline of the team.  "Give that Dan a contract" and let him do his thing!

[Luke-OH]

33 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

How do you know all this stuff?

The scout posted the grade on twitter, the park factors I got here, I know people are discounting his power from reading scouting reports and watching a bunch of video of him playing, plus BP and a HR derby. The swing mechanics change I picked up on when studying up on the 2017 draft, something I've been doing at some level the past few years, first just as a hobby, and more so this year in order to write about the draft for this site.

[Three Run Homer]

I don't think the haul compares to the Bedard trade, but that's not a fair comparison.  The Bedard trade is one of the most lopsided trades of all time--it's the reason that Bill Bavasi got fired in Seattle and has never worked as an executive since.  

The way I see it, we got a potential All-Star leadoff hitter and plus right fielder, plus three other guys who have potential to contribute at the major league level.  I'm more than satisfied with this trade.  

Who is a comparable player to Yusniel Diaz's ceiling?  Moderate power, high batting average, excellent OBP, average speed...the good version of Shin Soo Choo, maybe?  

[hoosiers]

2 hours ago, stockpile said:

Dan did an overall great job with this team until the whole Toronto thing opened the door for fractured leadership and the corresponding subsequent decline of the team.  "Give that Dan a contract" and let him do his thing!

I don't want to turn a nice thread on a tangent, but IMO DD did not do an overall great job - and I will keep it short with bullet point thoughts:

 - Most everything DD touched in 2012 turned to gold - signing pitchers, signing McClouth, bring up MM at 3B - pure gold

 - I believe if you put what DD inherited into a WAR spreadsheet that you will see the bar to make the playoffs from what DD inherited was quite low.  And IMO, after 2012, DD did little to properly supplement the team with few exceptions - such as the Cruz signing.  DD inherited JJ, Wieters, Hardy, MM, Nick, Schoop, O'Day, Britton, Givens, Jones, Tillman, EdRod, Hader, Davies, BMat, Davis, and more.  A good number of all stars in that inherited group.

 - what players did DD sign that produced 2 or 3 WAR for two or three years?  DD has been here seven years.  Who did he sign or trade for that had a minimally meaningful multi-year impact?   Chen?  Is that it?

 - The FA SP signings were horse####.  And as bad as those guys were or have been, there was little depth behind them.

I understand there were influences and unbearable oversight by ownership and that DD probably didn't do 1% of what was intended internationally (and that our farm system and likely our major league team would be much better off today if DD had been given proper investment in 2012), but there were a number of poor moves that clearly did not involve PA - targeting Travis Snider, signing Wada, signing BMat (instead of releasing him) and then dealing him away with a draft pick a couple months later), etc.

DD made other good moves and bad ones, and he steered the ship to the playoffs (largely with inherited players) which he deserves credit for, but I would hardly characterize his efforts here to date or to the point with the Toronto fiasco as "overall great".

[O's are Legends]

22 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

My thoughts on the five players acquired for Manny Machado including their ceilings, most likely, and floors.

http://www.orioleshangout.com/2018/07/18/machado-traded-to-dodgers-for-five-prospects/

 

Thanks for the write up.

[Tony-OH]

10 hours ago, MachoMachadoMan said:

Tony, I appreciate the optimism here, but when I consider Bedard Haul vs. Machado Haul, the Bedard Haul was significantly better at the time of the trade. In retrospect, we can look back and say Tillman was never a real top of the line starter, but at the time he was considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. Baseball Prospectus had him #16 Overall and the 5th starting pitcher the offseason after the trade. The offseason prior to the trade, he was #44 Overall. 

To be equal to the Bedard Haul, we would've needed to get Diaz and Mays, as many of us were hoping for. 

All of that said, I am happy with this trade and I'm thankful for your analysis and optimism. I hope Kremer  and Pop dominate during the second half and we look back at the Machado Haul as the beginning of brighter days for the organization like the Bedard Haul set in motion. 

The key thing I think people missed in my comment was the word potential. Jones and Tillman were highly rated prospects who I agree are more highly thought of than say Diaz and Kramer. But the depth of the guys who have chance to be good pieces could potentially make this a better haul.

[Tony-OH]

6 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

I don't think the haul compares to the Bedard trade, but that's not a fair comparison.  The Bedard trade is one of the most lopsided trades of all time--it's the reason that Bill Bavasi got fired in Seattle and has never worked as an executive since.  

The way I see it, we got a potential All-Star leadoff hitter and plus right fielder, plus three other guys who have potential to contribute at the major league level.  I'm more than satisfied with this trade.  

Who is a comparable player to Yusniel Diaz's ceiling?  Moderate power, high batting average, excellent OBP, average speed...the good version of Shin Soo Choo, maybe?  

Nick Markakis?

[Yardball85]

Not sure if this has been posted and if it's official, but orioles.com now has the rankings for the new players in our system:

Diaz is 2.  Kremer is 13. Bannon is 17.  Pop is 29. 

[weams]

22 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

They could, but I would keep him at Frederick at first to see how he adjusts away from the California league.

JustD and I will see them all four times next week.