Orioles to be more active in International Free Agent Market

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, ORIOLE33 said:

I’m asking because because I want to know just how highly touted these guys are. 

Acuna wasn't highly touted.  He signed for 100K.

[jsbearr]

1 hour ago, Ohfan67 said:

If you spend 20 million dollars on a prospect who's realistic outcomes include fourth outfielder then you are doing a very poor job of spending your money. You want a prospect who is going to produce 20 million dollars worth of value, not cost 20 million dollars. I would love to see your "evaluation". 

Welcome to the world of prospects. The range of Mesa's worth is from nothing to about 80 million. If Mesa manages his bat to be slightly subpar, he is very valuable.  So you pay in line with a mean outcome in hopes of seeing an outcome above that. Sometimes it works out such as Abreu who had a loud bat and nothing else. Sometimes it doesnt where Tomas put forward a more well rounded profile with a loud bat. Market is as the market does.

There are a lot of interesting deals you should read about from the past 10 to 15 years.

[jsbearr]

2 minutes ago, jsbearr said:

Welcome to the world of prospects. The range of Mesa's worth is from nothing to about 80 million. If Mesa manages his bat to be slightly subpar, he is very valuable.  So you pay in line with a mean outcome in hopes of seeing an outcome above that. Sometimes it works out such as Abreu who had a loud bat and nothing else. Sometimes it doesnt where Tomas put forward a more well rounded profile with a loud bat. Market is as the market does.

There are a lot of interesting deals you should read about from the past 10 to 15 years.

You can find a very simple study I wrote for ESPN, google it.

To get the more refined study, well, you have to join that organization. I do not own that.

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, jsbearr said:

Welcome to the world of prospects. The range of Mesa's worth is from nothing to about 80 million. If Mesa manages his bat to be slightly subpar, he is very valuable.  So you pay in line with a mean outcome in hopes of seeing an outcome above that. Sometimes it works out such as Abreu who had a loud bat and nothing else. Sometimes it doesnt where Tomas put forward a more well rounded profile with a loud bat. Market is as the market does.

There are a lot of interesting deals you should read about from the past 10 to 15 years.

If you think paying 20 million dollars for a prospect is the way to go, then you need to expand your reading. If you pay a real dollar to a  prospect for the dollar of WAR that one earns, then it’s a huge losing proposition. Again, you seem to be extrapolating a Fangraph analysis without incorporating the probability of success or failure and no appreciation of the importance of getting value out of CHEAP young players. If you want to pay a real dollar for every dollar of WAR per a fangraph type of analysis, then sign Adam Jones for what two WAR is worth in those analyses. 

[jsbearr]

9 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

If you think paying 20 million dollars for a prospect is the way to go, then you need to expand your reading. If you pay a real dollar to a  prospect for the dollar of WAR that one earns, then it’s a huge losing proposition. Again, you seem to be extrapolating a Fangraph analysis without incorporating the probability of success or failure and no appreciation of the importance of getting value out of CHEAP young players. If you want to pay a real dollar for every dollar of WAR per a fangraph type of analysis, then sign Adam Jones for what two WAR is worth in those analyses. 

You are not accounting for probability outcomes on a number of variables. A "fangraphs" approach is overly simplistic. So you need to be a bit more nuanced and sophisticated in your approach.

[Ohfan67]

2 hours ago, jsbearr said:

You are not accounting for probability outcomes on a number of variables. A "fangraphs" approach is overly simplistic. So you need to be a bit more nuanced and sophisticated in your approach.

If your “approach” tells you to pay 20 million for the VVM of the world, then it is not sophisticated.  It is economically invalid. As for developing a probabilistic model regarding outcomes, that’s exactly why I’m saying a team would be incredibly dumb to pay prospects 20 million. They would end up losing tons of money when a few years of rolling the dice in the draft doesn’t pay off. A very rich team can afford to throw away the money, but most can not. 

[Redskins Rick]

this sucks

Quote

The Rays appear to be closing in on a deal with Cuban right-hander Sandy Gaston that will pay him a $2.6MM bonus. Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald (Spanish-language link) reports that the sides are already in agreement, though Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times hears (Twitter link) they are still working toward a finalized deal. MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweeted last night that the sides were nearing agreement on a deal.

If the contract hits the books, the 17-year-old Gaston will absorb the bulk of Tampa Bay’s remaining international spending pool, which had stood at $3.5MM. It is not entirely clear to what extent the organization’s proximity to Gaston’s homeland played into the decision, but it surely did not hurt their odds.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/rays-reportedly-nearing-deal-with-sandy-gaston.html

 

[TonySoprano]

Quote

Victor Victor Mesa is receiving $5.25 million from the Marlins and it doesn’t appear that the Orioles were in the same neighborhood, so to speak, though their offer hasn’t been confirmed

Roch - http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2018/10/orioles-continue-to-conduct-business-despite-front-office-vacancies.html

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, TonySoprano said:

Roch - http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2018/10/orioles-continue-to-conduct-business-despite-front-office-vacancies.html

Shocking.

[Redskins Rick]

1 hour ago, TonySoprano said:

Roch - http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2018/10/orioles-continue-to-conduct-business-despite-front-office-vacancies.html

They said back in early Sept. Just because they had 6.5 to spend, meant they were going to spend it all, on one player.

[Frobby]

23 hours ago, TonySoprano said:

Roch - http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2018/10/orioles-continue-to-conduct-business-despite-front-office-vacancies.html

 

22 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Shocking.

This team has no coherent plan.   I’m just praying they are able to hire competent leadership who can come up with one.    

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

This team has no coherent plan.   I’m just praying they are able to hire competent leadership who can come up with one.    

And that the leadership they hire will be given the freedom and resources to compete.

[Can_of_corn]

Just found this piece I was looking for yesterday.

From Roch:

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2018/10/gaston-latest-international-prospect-to-elude-orioles.html

 

Quote

I can confirm that the Orioles made offers for Victor Victor and Gastón, the latter keeping them competitive with the Rays in bidding for the 17-year-old pitcher.

Quote

It’s believed that the gap between offers from the Marlins and Orioles was much bigger.

This goes right back to the Orioles not being willing to spend up to the allotments they traded for. 

If you aren't going to pony up for the #1 guy on the market you aren't really in the market.

It does sound like the agent for the Mesa brothers convinced the Marlins that the O's were bidding higher than they actually were and got some more money out of them.  Which is mildly amusing.

[Tony-OH]

Roch is working overtime trying to spin the Orioles in some good light. tough job right now. Sure, Graham is "minding the store" and I'm sure he is some kind of contact with owenership, but clearly this team did not have a plan on how to ensure they got at least one of those prospects.

As one scout told me, "Gaston was worth the $2.6 million." ff he was, then you make sure Gaston's representative knows they will outspend any reasonable offer. Regardless of how it all went down, the fact that the Orioles could not land one of the remaining three top prospects after having the most money tells you how bad things are with this organization right now.

The fact that the Angelos brothers apparently could care less about keeping the fans or their employees informed is even more troubling for the future in my opinion. Just business as usual under the Angelos ownership.

[UMDTerrapins]

It really is maddening watching other teams going about their business as usual while we flounder about waiting for the Angelos clan to hire a president. We’ll be starting our GM and managerial searches when the other teams are concluding theirs. The Mesas are the least of our troubles. We need more help than any other organization and we have no front office at the moment. The only thing that would excuse this incompetence is if they were on the verge of selling the team and didn’t want to bind the new owners to new front office contracts. But it’s infinitely more likely that it’s just the reemergence of the amateur hour ownership that Buck and Dan managed to hide from view for awhile.