How long will this take?

[spiritof66]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I heard a quote from DD that the rebuild will extend through 2019 and “maybe” into 2020.     But I wonder if it’s realistic for this franchise to rebuild that fast.    If you think about it, the last Orioles rebuild really started when MacPhail traded Bedard and Tejada away in the 2007-08 offseason.    That led to four more seasons of losing and we were selling pieces that entire time.   Factor in that we don’t have any pieces to sell that are as in demand as Bedard was, and few in the Tejada range.    

The other thing is, much depends on how well you do with your high draft picks, and whether you can hit  a home run with any of your lower picks.    We made a great pick in Manny, but I think one reason we fell short of winning a championship is we didn’t really hit any other home runs with our picks.   And, of course, we were severely handicapped by ignoring the source of 25-30% of all players. Even if we get back in that market, it probably takes several years before we start getting our full share of the talent there.    

Realistically, I think we may not see a winning ball club until 2023 or later.   

It depends on what Duquette was trying to say. I equate "rebuilding" with losing. lots of games --  a declining record on the field that's endured in the interest of future success. An oddity of the Orioles' current  situation is that they were already  losing at a  breakneck, near-record pace before the rebuilding even started.  I seriously doubt that Duquette thinks that a rebuilt Orioles team will contend , or even approach .500, in 2020.

But if he means that mediocre (and worse) veterans will occupy only a few roster spots by 2019-20, and by then the rebuilt Orioles team will consist primarily of young players, some of whom will be counted on to mature into key parts of a winning team in a few years, I can buy that as a reasonable if optimistic goal. 

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

I'm surprised the Braves are competing right now. They sold some pieces in 2014 (their 2014 team was almost like our 2017 disappointing team), but acquired Shelby Miller and others (Markakis) for 2015. You could argue maybe they didn't go full bore rebuild until mid 2015. They've obviously been a bit quick, but I wouldn't mind doing it like they did in that they hung on to some pieces: Teheran, Freeman, and Markakis. And this should be the beginning of a window for them. It was 2-4 years. Again, on the quicker side and I'm sure they have had some good fortune. NL East is a weak division as well. 

But, they are contending for a playoff spot and have a stocked farm system 4 years after starting the process and 2.5 to 3 after fulling committing to it. 

[theocean]

32 minutes ago, Sir_Loin said:

The master plan is to be competitive in 2020, but the FO thinks they can really be at the top of the division in 2021...

They think Bobby Witt Jr is going to be that good, huh?

[MikeAD]

Look at how quickly Houston did this.  Now I realize the Houston farm system was not in total shambles like ours has been but you can still do this quickly.  I think this rebuild could lead to a competitive team in 2020 for sure.  I think the 2019 season might even be one where we don't have to turn the TV off for all of August and September like almost every Orioles season over the past 25 years.  Just bring in a multitude of pitching prospects and hope for the best.  If the rebuild goes well and is done competently we will also have extra pieces to trade for a pitcher or another spot of need once everything comes together.  Houston Houston Houston.  

[Redskins Rick]

I dont care how great the master plan is, but unless you have a skilled driver at the wheel.

Then, you are pretty much screwed.

[Redskins Rick]

4 minutes ago, MikeAD said:

Look at how quickly Houston did this.  Now I realize the Houston farm system was not in total shambles like ours has been but you can still do this quickly.  I think this rebuild could lead to a competitive team in 2020 for sure.  I think the 2019 season might even be one where we don't have to turn the TV off for all of August and September like almost every Orioles season over the past 25 years.  Just bring in a multitude of pitching prospects and hope for the best.  If the rebuild goes well and is done competently we will also have extra pieces to trade for a pitcher or another spot of need once everything comes together.  Houston Houston Houston.  

They have had some luck too.

Did anybody see Verlander reemergence as a TOR lights out guy, like he did in the playoffs?

[MikeAD]

Just now, Redskins Rick said:

They have had some luck too.

Did anybody see Verlander reemergence as a TOR lights out guy, like he did in the playoffs?

Tons of luck but what winning clubs dont?  They had the leftover resources to get him.  Verlander was a plus when he was brought in not a necessity.  

[foxfield]

52 minutes ago, Sir_Loin said:

The master plan is to be competitive in 2020, but the FO thinks they can really be at the top of the division in 2021...

Well the FO is going to change....or this is an irrelevant conversation.  Now, in total fairness, it could be reshuffled and possibly work.  But when you say FO, if you mean 3 or 4 guys fighting to control the wheel...well, that just aint gonna work.

[foxfield]

The good news is that in spite of being an organization without a ton of talent in the pipeline, it's still better off than the day when the previous rebuild was begun.  That gives me hope that this can be done and the Orioles can get back to competing in the AL East.  

And yes, Rick there has to be a skilled driver in the seat.  And I still say the quicker the Orioles announce who the driver is, the better off the O's will be.

Tick tock.

[FlipTheBird]

2 hours ago, nadecir said:

I think you are being a bit naive as to what an additional $20+ million per year could do in fixing the fundamental problems this organization has over the next few years.  International spending, analytics, and scouting are just a few places that $20+ million could go to begin to solve big problems with the Orioles.  Heck, you could use money to pay off debt and it would be a better use of money.

An additional $20+ million spent in the right places over the next few years makes the Orioles a winning organization faster.  Wasting money certainly doesn't help. 

And I think you're being overly pessimistic. And I'm a pessimist.

The Orioles are going to organically cut salary the next few years and have plenty of spare cash to invest where they'd like Davis' contract is not a big deal. Him being stuck on the roster and taking a spot someone else could be using stinks, but we're not the Oakland A's or Tampa Bay Rays. There are funds available.

Being able to use money wisely is actually why they won't cut him, at least not for another year or two, as then they'd have to pay him out in one enormous lump sum that would indeed cripple them for a bit.

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, foxfield said:

The good news is that in spite of being an organization without a ton of talent in the pipeline, it's still better off than the day when the previous rebuild was begun.  That gives me hope that this can be done and the Orioles can get back to competing in the AL East.  

And yes, Rick there has to be a skilled driver in the seat.  And I still say the quicker the Orioles announce who the driver is, the better off the O's will be.

Tick tock.

Given Peter's history of ownership and his past GM.

I dont have warm fuzzies, that they will make the right move.

 

[FlipTheBird]

6 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Well the FO is going to change....or this is an irrelevant conversation.  Now, in total fairness, it could be reshuffled and possibly work.  But when you say FO, if you mean 3 or 4 guys fighting to control the wheel...well, that just aint gonna work.

This remains very debatable. Things have been quiet in the Warehouse, and DD is suddenly talking like he's going to be with the franchise for awhile. We just have to wait and see.

[bpilktree67]

2 hours ago, TonySoprano said:

Houston severely tanked 3 years in a row, and they still had to wait another 2 years for the playoffs.

Orioles fans waiting on rebuild 

They also drafted awful in 2 of the four first picks. Appel and Aiken never sniffed anything close to majors.

[FlipTheBird]

46 minutes ago, Grt 2BA FL Gator said:

I'm surprised the Braves are competing right now. They sold some pieces in 2014 (their 2014 team was almost like our 2017 disappointing team), but acquired Shelby Miller and others (Markakis) for 2015. You could argue maybe they didn't go full bore rebuild until mid 2015. They've obviously been a bit quick, but I wouldn't mind doing it like they did in that they hung on to some pieces: Teheran, Freeman, and Markakis. And this should be the beginning of a window for them. It was 2-4 years. Again, on the quicker side and I'm sure they have had some good fortune. NL East is a weak division as well. 

But, they are contending for a playoff spot and have a stocked farm system 4 years after starting the process and 2.5 to 3 after fulling committing to it. 

They also get to play in a "lesser" division, a luxury we won't have unless MLB really does realign whenever it gets around to expanding.

We perennially get the Sox and Yanks. The Jays aren't really short for cash, either, they've just mismanaged it over the past few years - they have a ton of talent in the pipeline, though, including the best prospect in baseball in Vlad Jr.

The Braves are up against another rebuilding franchise and the Nationals and that's it. The Mets are a laughing stock and the Marlins are borderline criminal.

[FlipTheBird]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I heard a quote from DD that the rebuild will extend through 2019 and “maybe” into 2020. But I wonder if it’s realistic for this franchise to rebuild that fast. 

To answer the question at hand... it's hard to say. There's more to a rebuild than just filling the system with prospects and seeing who pans out. They'll be making other acquisitions too, during the process. And part of it will depend on what we call a rebuild. Are they rebuilding until they're competing for a playoff spot again, or are they rebuilding until they've got a core that they think *could* soon compete for a playoff spot?

You finish building your house long before it becomes a home is what I'm saying, I guess.