How long will this take?

[hoosiers]

I think this is a great question with some good answers here.  My thoughts revolve around the following:

1)  Our farm system is not empty.  There are several guys who project as plus players - Hays, Mountcastle, Diaz - all at AA or above - and several who might be average or better major leaguers - Mullins, McKenna, Hall, Greiner.  On the pitching side, Tate, Kremer, Baumann, Akin, Lowther should be 4/5s or maybe better and Hall and GrayRod could be above average ML starters.  There is other talent.  There is no 70 grade on anyone - no Vlad Jr, no Eloy Jimenez, no Walker Buehler or Alex Reyes.  We should have several very high draft picks over the next couple of years that will be our best lottery ticket at premium prospects.

2)  The NYY or BoSox run figures to go for at least another three to five years - especially the NYY.  Toronto should be on the upswing and the Rays have several high quality prospects that are up (Bauers, Adames) or will be up soon.  Our most recent run from 2012-16 was at the expense of some relative weak iterations of the NYY and BoSox.  Those team won't be bad anytime soon.  The division figures to be very tough for some time.

3)  International Scouting and Player Acquisition could start impacting our top 10 - 15 prospects within the next three years, but we probably won't see any major leaguers from the young prospect group for about five years.  

4)  I do have a concern that DD is not going to stand for the losing and will try to supplement the major league team as best he can within reason.  This is really counter to the losing and high draft picks that AM accepted and the Astros accepted.  AM kept running out Steve Traschel types.  DD is unlikely to do that.  We SHOULD have top three draft picks for the next three or four years under a truly rebuilding GM, but I am not sure that happens here.

5)  We are learning this week that top relievers and young, good cost controller relief pitchers have outsized value.  If I am DD, while I am casting a wide net of players and former prospects to be on our major league team next year, I am especially focused on giving opportunities to good young relievers who could return top 10 prospect types at the next couple of trade deadlines.

I think we are looking at 2022-23 when we should have a large number of good players in the majors or in the upper levels of the minors and are ready to compete against weakening teams from Boston and NYY.