Grade the Schoop Deal

[Luke-OH]

The Schoop deal might have been my favorite of all the deals. Schoop is a good player, but he's seen his defensive abilities wane as he's grown into his frame and because of his approach at the plate, he really has to kill the ball to be more than an average regular. He did that in 2017, and he might do that again next year, who knows. 

The return is very solid IMO, Villar has value, his best season is pretty darn close to Schoop's best and he's a better defender. Maybe he's toast, but he's the kind of guy a rebuilding team can give everyday playing time to see if he can bounce back. 

Ortiz is a strong prospect IMO, ahead of Dillon Tate and the 2nd best prospect acquired in all of the Orioles trades.

Carmona is 18, don't look at his stats, he's an 18 year old who likely doesn't speak much English playing in Montana. If you put him in a HS showcase (he's that age), he would have been drafted in the top 50 picks, my comp is Osiris Johnson with a better glove. 

[hoosiers]

The fact is that there are a lot of really good 2B in the majors right now.  For all his talent and this last monstrous month of production in July, Schoop is barely on his way to a 1.5 WAR year for $8.5M in his age 26 season.  Can he do better?  Sure.  Should we wait for his next 5 WAR year?  We didn't.

Ortiz is a pitcher.  FV50 per mlb.com right now; 55 per BA to start the year.  Ortiz has been a productive pitcher at AA; he has just been injury prone.  Ortiz needs to stay in shape, but he can pitch.

Folks wanting that lottery ticket when we traded Manny, Carmona is your lottery ticket.  FV45.

So that a flyer on Villar and a FV50 and FV 45 for Schoop.  Thumbs up.

[OriolesMagic83]

I was disappointed the O's didn't even get one top 100 prospect for Schoop.  I'm not sure what the point was in getting Villar back.  I would just as soon see Vielma (sp?) or Wilkerson play 2b as Villar, for less money.  I'm really underwhelmed by the return.  Maybe the O's get lucky and one of the lottery tickets they got amount to something.  I'm more satisfied with the trade of Gausman to the Braves, because that trade was more about getting rid of O'Day and gaining international money than prospects.

[Luke-OH]

22 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I was disappointed the O's didn't even get one top 100 prospect for Schoop.  I'm not sure what the point was in getting Villar back.  I would just as soon see Vielma (sp?) or Wilkerson play 2b as Villar, for less money.  I'm really underwhelmed by the return.  Maybe the O's get lucky and one of the lottery tickets they got amount to something.  I'm more satisfied with the trade of Gausman to the Braves, because that trade was more about getting rid of O'Day and gaining international money than prospects.

Let's be clear about lottery tickets, that's a term that's thrown around a lot.

Lottery tickets in my definition of the term are borderline fatally flawed toolsy players that if everything clicks might be something. Using O's prospects as an example, Jake Ring would be a lottery ticket, Jomar Reyes and Ofelky Peralta would be decent lottery tickets. Milton Ramos who was acquired by the O's last year was a long shot lottery ticket.

Jean Carmona is not a lottery ticket. He is a risky prospect, because of how young and far away from the majors he is, but he is a legit prospect. If he was drafted in the Draft, he'd likely be a top 50 overall pick and we wouldn't be calling him a lottery ticket.

Ortiz is at least a top 200 guy and would likely be a top 100 type if he hadn't dealt with a hamstring injury, he's two years younger than Dillon Tate and has similar stuff. He's a dude.

Villar has had one good season and it was the one season where he was healthy and played everyday. Let's allow him to do that here, he's cheap (utility priced) and controllable (2 more seasons after this one) so he makes sense as a guy to fill the gap at 2B.

And as far as Wilkerson and Vielma, they aren't everyday players, they along with Valera (last piece in the Machado deal) are utility guys if things go right, depth if not. 

[TonySoprano]

Quote

The Brewers simply liked the player and liked the price, which was significantly lower than the Orioles had requested Friday, sources said. The Orioles’ return — infielder Jonathan Villar, Double A right-hander Luis Ortiz and Single A infielder Jean Carmona — indeed seemed light for Schoop, a 2017 All-Star who is under control through next season.

Naturally, the Orioles saw it differently. Villar, in their view, had the same fWAR as Schoop this season for less than one-third of Schoop’s $8.5 million salary. Ortiz, coming off an appearance in the Futures Game, was the Brewers’ No. 5 prospect according to MLBPipeline.com. Carmona, 18, showed promise as a switch-hitting shortstop with average power and a plus arm.

From the outside, the Brewers seemed intent on trading Ortiz and outfielder Brett Phillips, two prospects whose stock had fallen. They offered both players to the Orioles for Manny Machado; Phillips ultimately went for Moustakas, Ortiz for Schoop. The team discussed more highly valued prospects in other deals, sources said, but evidently was comfortable moving them only for an elite pitcher such as New York Mets right-hander Jacob deGrom, as opposed to a lesser one such as Archer.

Rosenthal - https://theathletic.com/454272/2018/08/01/rosenthal-pirates-defy-the-narrative-by-pulling-off-trade-for-chris-archer/

[MSBird]

I feel like the overall sentiment would have been a lot more positive if the deal was headlined by Barnes instead of Ortiz, but guessing Barnes would have caused the Brewers to not include Carmona. I split on the trade, as I thought Schoop could net at least 1 Top 100 guy, but have others have stated, we probably all overestimated his value compared to the rest of baseball.

That said, I see upside in every player that came back. Ortiz is likely to become a solid middle of the rotation arm, with a bit of upside. Carmona seems like a wild card at this point, but seems to project as a future starter, with above average fielding and power potential. Hard to argue with that as a second piece. Villar was a head scratcher at first, but I'm starting to like him being in the deal. It will be interesting to see where he bats in the lineup, but if he gets his plate discipline in check (something our hitters obviously aren't known for) he could become a solid trade chip. He has proven he can hit for decent power and steal a lot of bases with the right approach at the plate and that combo can net a decent return in a future trade. 

Overall, I'm having an easier time talking myself into the return we got for School then I'm am with Gausman, who's return seemed very underwhelming, especially when trading him to the best farm system in baseball. 

[Chromehill]

Maybe the O's should have waited until the off-season to trade Schoop, possibly they get more.  Considering that the problem with the O's is that they are a team built on hitting homeruns with a bunch of guys that strikeout a lot and do not get on base along with being marginal defensively, I can see why they would decide to not build around Schoop.  He is part of the problem, hits homeruns, strikes out a lot, does not walk (0 in July) and is average defensively. 

[Redskins Rick]

As much as I loved seeing Schoop here playing, I think last year, was a career year for him.

Being slightly slow of foot, and limited defense range is going to be more apparent and he ages.

He does a great double play and has nice hands and arm, but personally, I dont see his skillset working at 3rd or SS. So maybe he ends up at first, if he can keep hitting MLB.

[NATTYBO's]

Schoop is on pace for a second 30hr season and is raising his average to a respectable level.  Higher end prospects than the Gausman deal but I expected a higher end prospect than Diaz.

[jamalshw]

I went with a "C" here. I think that's fair. It was an okay return. Since "C" is average, it seemed appropriate. This is about the return I was expecting, but less than I was hoping we'd get. We weren't getting Hiura or Burnes or Freddy Peralta. I don't mind Ortiz as the top guy in the deal and I like that they went young upside in the No.2 piece (that was my biggest beef with the Manny/Britton deals). I don't know that Villar does anything for us, but if he can have a renaissance back to his 2016 days (or even 75% of that) he could be flipped next deadline for a usable future piece or two especially given his speed and how a key PR steal can impact a postseason (just ask Dave Roberts about that).

[keithstone]

14 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

The Schoop deal might have been my favorite of all the deals. Schoop is a good player, but he's seen his defensive abilities wane as he's grown into his frame and because of his approach at the plate, he really has to kill the ball to be more than an average regular. He did that in 2017, and he might do that again next year, who knows. 

The return is very solid IMO, Villar has value, his best season is pretty darn close to Schoop's best and he's a better defender. Maybe he's toast, but he's the kind of guy a rebuilding team can give everyday playing time to see if he can bounce back. 

Ortiz is a strong prospect IMO, ahead of Dillon Tate and the 2nd best prospect acquired in all of the Orioles trades.

Carmona is 18, don't look at his stats, he's an 18 year old who likely doesn't speak much English playing in Montana. If you put him in a HS showcase (he's that age), he would have been drafted in the top 50 picks, my comp is Osiris Johnson with a better glove. 

I'm going to piggyback off this and correct some incorrect scouting reports that have been noted. 

Villar is a throw-in more than anything. He was about to get expensive and likely didn't have a spot on the roster with us next year. He definitely has talent and is a better defender than given credit, but he is extremely prone to boneheaded mistakes. Getting picked off, making an error on a routine play, going 1st to 3rd and being out by 10 feet. There's definitely a chance he puts it together long enough to be an asset down the road, decent gamble.

Ortiz is probably the most valuable piece on paper. I've seen a number of scouting reports calling his slider a fringe offering and his changeup his best secondary, that's not true at all. Reality is his slider is wicked and either his best pitch or 2nd best pitch behind his fastball. His changeup is ok, an MLB pitch but the other 2 are better offerings. He screws around with a curve sometimes, but he'll be a 3 pitch guy when he gets to the majors. If you guys can keep him motivated and keep the weight off and him healthy, his floor is probably a #4 starter with #2 upside if his change becomes a plus offering. If weight/injury issues persist, his FB/slider combo is MLB ready now out of the bullpen...when he's healthy. He's always reminded me a lot of Bartolo Colon, probably because of the weight thing.

Carmona is very raw, and as noted above, ignore the numbers for now. Carmona has easy plus bat speed and likely ends up between a plus and elite defender at maturity. He just has a long ways to go and a lot of development needed. There is also a chance he gets too big for SS, but he's a good enough athlete he might still stick at SS otherwise would fit well enough at 3B...and if he gets that big he'll probably have easy plus power to go with the batspeed. There's a real chance he's the most valuable player in this trade. He was rated #14 in the Brewers top 30...as a small dollar signing by a small market team that hasn't even his a ball yet. That should speak volumes to the ability that some scouts see in this guy. I've read that his body is comparable to Jean Segura.

I've read that Schoop could potentially play some SS in certain situations, which makes me hate the trade a bit less. I wouldn't mind the trade as much if the "throw-in" wasn't Carmona. If it was Ward or Feliciano or Herrera, I wouldn't be as disappointed. You have to give something to get something and Ortiz + a bit is reasonable for a year+ of Schoop. Carmona really hurts though.

[Hallas]

10 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Let's be clear about lottery tickets, that's a term that's thrown around a lot.

 Lottery tickets in my definition of the term are borderline fatally flawed toolsy players that if everything clicks might be something. Using O's prospects as an example, Jake Ring would be a lottery ticket, Jomar Reyes and Ofelky Peralta would be decent lottery tickets. Milton Ramos who was acquired by the O's last year was a long shot lottery ticket.

 Jean Carmona is not a lottery ticket. He is a risky prospect, because of how young and far away from the majors he is, but he is a legit prospect. If he was drafted in the Draft, he'd likely be a top 50 overall pick and we wouldn't be calling him a lottery ticket.

 Ortiz is at least a top 200 guy and would likely be a top 100 type if he hadn't dealt with a hamstring injury, he's two years younger than Dillon Tate and has similar stuff. He's a dude.

 Villar has had one good season and it was the one season where he was healthy and played everyday. Let's allow him to do that here, he's cheap (utility priced) and controllable (2 more seasons after this one) so he makes sense as a guy to fill the gap at 2B.

 And as far as Wilkerson and Vielma, they aren't everyday players, they along with Valera (last piece in the Machado deal) are utility guys if things go right, depth if not. 

Thanks for your take here.  I would probably argue that any high-ceiling, low-floor prospect that's currently in rookie ball is basically a lottery ticket.  That's a lot of levels to climb before his skillset is at a major-league level.  The fringey guys you mention are less like lottery tickets, because they don't have the ceiling that Carmona does.  They might be serviceable major leaguers if everything clicks.  Maybe they're more like scratch-offs.   Carmona might be an all-star if everything clicks. That sounds more like a real jackpot.

[sportsfan8703]

Just an update...

Middle of a pennant race and Schoop is on the bench for the Brewers. .240 OPS through his first 25 ABs. 

 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

56 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Just an update...

Middle of a pennant race and Schoop is on the bench for the Brewers. .240 OPS through his first 25 ABs. 

 

Kinda had a feeling Schoop would slump at first.  Didn’t think it would be this bad.  

[eddie83]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Just an update...

Middle of a pennant race and Schoop is on the bench for the Brewers. .240 OPS through his first 25 ABs. 

 

Probably pressing. I hope he turns it around.