Grade the Rebuild, Phase I

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, MrOrange82 said:

I might start referring to Frobby as "professor" due to all these graded polls. 

I like them because you can go back years after the fact and get a quick read on what the OH consensus was at the time.    It’s harder, when going back, to sift through the hundreds of posts giving opinions on the subject.  

[El Gordo]

19 minutes ago, Grt 2BA FL Gator said:

Actually 3 in the top 5. Encouraged to see how highly they think of Tate. Fangraphs wasn't as high. Also, this list doesn't seem to have the Braves trade or the Pirates/Archer trade.. 

Encarnacion and Cumberland were in the Braves trade.

[wildbillhiccup]

I love how everyone's poo pooing Gausman's value. Despite his inconsistencies, he has a  career 4.16 era pitching in the most difficult division in baseball. And I wouldn't be surprised if he's the Braves best pitcher for the rest of the season. We did not get enough for him and muddying the waters by trying to dump O'Day's salary on the Braves was not worth sacrificing getting better prospects in return. 

[foxfield]

2 hours ago, Roy Firestone said:

Machado deal was ok. Britton so-so. The Gausman deal was disappointing. The Schoop deal was a fleecing.

I love you and I always think...don't make me cry Roy, when I read your stuff.   But just to be clear.  Erik Bedard to the Mariners was a fleecing.  Schoop for 1.3 years...at worst, was poor.  

2 hours ago, Roy Firestone said:

Robby, we disagree. We got an overweight pitching prospect who has put up mediocre numbers at AA. A mediocre hitting infielder, and a long shot prospect at low A for a player who was still under control for 1.3 seasons ... is one year removed from being an All Star , and was showing his swing was back after an injury. I guarantee Schoop will be a star wherever he goes. And we basically got nothing substantial for him.

It would be enlightening if you could enumerate what the Orioles should have expected for Schoop.  I don't think a year and a few months were getting a Gleyber Torres back for him.  By the way see my link on the Bedard Trade.  AJ was the #51 prospect when ACE  Erik Bedard was moved in 2008.  Tillman was a highly regarded prospect but by no means on anyones TOP lists.

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm giving it an A.

"Moose, you're so negative, are you delusional?"

Maybe.  Maybe your mother.

In the span of 3 weeks they've acquired 15 new players.  There might not be an absolute stud in there, but that's what this team gets for holding onto players for too long and trading them off as rentals.

The top 10 of our franchise prospect list has transformed.  There are some other guys that could step up and make noise.  I am particularly interested in Bannon.

DD announced that they were going to make efforts in the international scouting and signing arena, to which some of us rolled our eyes.  But he's horded a lot of money and it looks like we're going to make a big push for VVM and some others.  If you heard DD on the broadcast last night, he said he loves scouting in South America.  If we can land VVM we are looking really good.  If not, I feel confident that the trades that were made these few weeks will still get us moving in the right direction.

I'm all in, you pikers.  I am excited for this rebuild and I'm happy it's well underway.  

THIS IS JUST AS SPECULATIVE.  But so much more enjoyable.

Come on in boys the water is fine!!!!

58 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

Of the top 20 prospects traded this deadline the O's got 8, 3 in the top 10. https://www.mlb.com/news/top-prospects-dealt-at-trade-deadline/c-288215938

Yo...Roy...

49 minutes ago, Cy Bundy said:

We need to beat Boston and the NYY, I don’t think we got anyone who will ever be a player who would make either teams 25 man. 

The RP arms we got back are lesser arms and older than Jesus Liranzo who we gave away. We got our rule 5 guys in trades, ok.

What do we do with international money when the prospects have been signed and we have no infrastructure down there? I have heard on mlb talk shows that the Yanks want to sign VVM, they didn’t trade to sign a bunch of guys everyone missed out on. They traded a relief arm who was expendable, they are great now and can’t get ABs for all of their young bats or innings for all of their incredible arms. That’s a true lottery ticket, a shot at VVM. I think people are overselling the prospects we got, the international money, and the value of dumping O’day. 

Schoop and Gausman are 26 and 27, Pop is 25? What rebuild takes so long that a 26 year old couldn’t be signed to be a part of it? Schoop will be a good mlb player in 5 years, so will KG, those are the only guarantees and Kremer, Tate, Diaz are guys we got for the rentals. They appear to be 3 of the 4 most likely to contribute to an appearance in the playoffs down the line.

The value of O’day being dumped is only seen by the Angelos family. That doesn’t help us do anything. 

We were the favorites to sign VVM, hopefully we are still the favorites. The best prospects we will get as a result of these trades will be in the draft if we are ever going to compete again, by 2030 wildfires will be consuming the whole of the planet.

 

 

Cy...this is very well thought out and you could be entirely right.  The thing is prospects like draft choices don't always do anything.  So, if we are going young (and while Pop is in fact 25 it is a bit deceiving to use him as he is one of the older pieces that came back) then there is at least room to make the argument that the more shots we take the better chance of hitting.

 

Here is the list of top prospects when we made the Bedard Trade. http://www.projectprospect.com/article/2007/01/03/project-prospects-2007-top-100-prospect-list

Notice names like Felix Pie at 41.  And some guy named Kershaw at 34. Some Oriole prospect named Billy Rowell was 52...Adam Jones was 51.

 

I'm going with an A.  I don't know if any of these guys helps us beat the Yankees.  Maybe they all suck.  But you cannot look at the list from 2007 and not be excited that one or two of these guys don't pop.  Sorry, color me Orange.

Whoo Hoo!

 

[weams]

 

[weams]

Just now, Cy Bundy said:

I hope we have 9 of the top 10 players dealt that’s a flawed metric if ever there was one. No one approached forfeiting over what Baltimore did. Archer brought back two guys who are better than any we got per every source. 

 

These places all updated their system rankings midseason, nobody is basing their opinion on old reports. 

I would rather everyone be excited about the same guy, a consensus is a positive, not a negative. Those are tough arguments to bring to a debate, but they sound good in tweets. 

 

The Pirates guys are no longer prospects. Their clock started. 

[TonySoprano]

Quote

1. Orioles

No team overhauled its system more than the Orioles did. Baltimore added a total of 10 new names to their Top 30 prospects list, along with a handful of other non-ranked Minor Leaguers. It was definitely more quantity than quality, with Diaz the only Top 100 player to come (via the Manny Machado deal), and he is now the top prospect in the organization. But given how thin this system was, volume is important. Keep in mind, also, that the team was in last place before making these trades. Perhaps people feel they should have gotten more for the big leaguers the O's dealt, but to change over one-third of the Top 30 is nothing to sneeze at.

 

 

[Chromehill]

2 hours ago, CheeryO said:

True, but DD did not have to trade Gausman and Schoop.  He could have waited until the offseason or even into next season.  But I like the energy with which he is working, and it could be that some of the prospects received for the two of them are far more interesting than people are giving credit for.

No doubt they could have waited to trade Gausman and Schoop.  Maybe the thinking was:

1.  They do not believe the offers will be significantly better in the off-season than what they were offered

2.  There is always the injury factor

3.  It allowed the acquisition of the international slot money (which they must have a plan to use)

4.  It dumped $12 million of O'Day's contract

5.  Maybe they decided to get the bloodletting done all at once was the best path forwards. 

6.  Decimating the team all but assures they have the first pick in the draft next year.

[Malike]

3 hours ago, Finisher said:

Whatever reason may be pitching coach that doesn't actually help anyone. Buck's TTP obsession. Facing Red Sox and Yankees. Awful defense behind him. Camden Yards.

Wade Miley has a 1.53 ERA this year. Gonna be fun if Gausman turns into Arrieta 2.0.

 

Miley has pitched 29 innings and is about 1:1 in SO to Walk ratio. Lets see how does after a bigger sample.

[foxfield]

20 minutes ago, Cy Bundy said:

I hope we have 9 of the top 10 players dealt that’s a flawed metric if ever there was one. No one approached forfeiting over what Baltimore did. Archer brought back two guys who are better than any we got per every source. 

 

These places all updated their system rankings midseason, nobody is basing their opinion on old reports. 

I would rather everyone be excited about the same guy, a consensus is a positive, not a negative. Those are tough arguments to bring to a debate, but they sound good in tweets. 

 

Um....no.  This is not true.  Archer brought back two guys who are older and already MLB players.  Please tell me this is not what you actually think.  That these two guys are better than any person we got out of 15.

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

26 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Um....no.  This is not true.  Archer brought back two guys who are older and already MLB players.  Please tell me this is not what you actually think.  That these two guys are better than any person we got out of 15.

Here's a question. How was Austin Meadows so highly thought of? Consensus top 10 prospect at one point. His minor league numbers look pretty average to me. I guess he had good half seasons when he was graduated in 2015/2016? And the pedigree of the 9th overall pick? But such SSS. 

Must be a toolsy, eye test guy. Obviously that's key with minor leaguers. And could still turn out to be a decent player. Was just underwhelmed by the minor league resume. 

[weams]

28 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Um....no.  This is not true.  Archer brought back two guys who are older and already MLB players.  Please tell me this is not what you actually think.  That these two guys are better than any person we got out of 15.

Thank you. You said it better than I did. 

[weams]

2 minutes ago, Grt 2BA FL Gator said:

Here's a question. How was Austin Meadows so highly thought of? Consensus top 10 prospect at one point. His minor league numbers look pretty average to me. I guess he had good half seasons when he was graduated in 2015/2016? And the pedigree of the 9th overall pick? But such SSS. 

Must be a toolsy, eye test guy. Obviously that's key with minor leaguers. And could still turn out to be a decent player. Was just underwhelmed by the minor league resume. 

Poor defense. Some power. Just a name. Someone they used to dream on. 

[NCRaven]

What is Phase II?  I would guess the signing of international amateurs during the current signing period?  

Phase III?  Deciding on a General Manager and Field Manager for 2019 and beyond?  And allowing the GM to build out the staff (amateur scouts, pro scouts, international scouts, instructional staff, sabermetric staff, etc.)?

 

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, weams said:

Poor defense. Some power. Just a name. Someone they used to dream on. 

Sounds like past guys in our own system.