Grade the Rebuild, Phase I

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

Referred to the guys we got as up and down players.  

 

Scouts take on our new players Masn

 Not surprisingly you didnt talk about Tate, Roger's, and Ortiz who they all have as 4 or 5 starters.

This "scouting report" was a guy's thoughts,  and did not include players like Pop, Carroll and Bannon.

The fact that Diaz was rated a top 100 prospect was not discussed as well. 

Any scout that thinks all we got are up and down guys in this haul should immediately not be taken seriously. Are their up and down guys in this trade, sure, but to suggest that's all we got is ridiculous.

[o'sfansince1970]

A few stipulations:

If I simply grade the trades without considering that they should have been made 2 years ago, I'd say C-C+. All things considered I would say D-D+.

[nate22]

I think we did very well. If only we started this "rebuild" philosophy in the offseason  I believe we would have done much better. All the red flags were there (that a rebuild was inevitable) after our finish last year. Overall this new philosophy is refreshing.

[weams]

On 8/1/2018 at 7:57 PM, Luke-OH said:

I would be if the tools didn't match the performance. It's not like they are grabbing guys getting by with smoke and mirrors. There is no Alex Wells in these deals, Evan Phillips (Phillips has a little more stuff than Meisinger but less deception, seems like he'll need above average command to be a decent relief arm) and Cumberland (I think his hit tool flaws are hidden by him playing at levels that are too low for him) are the two that I worry their performances are fluky, but I haven't watched enough game video yet to come to a conclusion.

No Alex Wells. 

[OriolesMagic83]

Overall I like the O's rebuild stage 1.  The main thing is that there finally seems to be a plan.  I am a big fan of the Machado and Britton trades.  I especially liked the return on Britton because I was worried he would either stink or get hurt before the O's traded him.  I think the Gausman trade was fair value because a large part of the return was the international money and getting rid of O'Day's contract.  If the international money and the money saved from the O'Day contract is spent well and invested in the farm system, it looks like a good trade.  The return for Schoop seemed very poor.  I think the O's should have gotten 1 top prospect (top 100) or waited until the offseason to trade him.  I felt I had low expectations for the trade return on Gausman and Schoop, but I was even underwhelmed when I had low expectations.  I remember that some posters were expecting 3 top 100 prospects for Gausman.  I would give this part of the rebuild a B/B+.  That was not a choice in the poll, so I voted B/B-.

[Thato'sfan]

To the people hating the returns on trades, specifically the Gausman and Schoop deals:

These were good trades. We weren't going to get a can't miss prospect. Please don't point to the Chapman deal from two years ago because team behaviors have changed since that crazy 2016 deadline. Teams are holding on to their upper-level can't miss guys more than ever before, we weren't getting one of those guys.

We might've in a Manny trade, but it seems as if no team was willing to really give that sort of talent away. The Manny deal also gave us much needed depth in the upper minors, with everyone having a chance to see time in Baltimore. In addition, everyone except for Valera has the upside of becoming important pieces for the next contending team. 

The Britton deal was likely the best of them all. We got outstanding value for a guy who was out half the season. We got pitching in the upper minors, something which the system lacked. Not only that, we got a couple of pitchers with upside.

The Schoop deal aimed for upside. We got that. The system lacked prospects with high ceilings, this trade helped out.

The Gausman deal could be great or it could be terrible. We got some depth and upside, dumped salary, and got int'l money. The player return seemed a bit light, but the int'l money could be huge.

The Brach deal was solid as well. We needed the int'l cash and got a bit from it.

My thoughts on each player:

Yusniel Diaz is a potential future all-star. If he taps into his power, he could hit 20+ hrs with plus defense, arm. He has a good eye and hits for average. He doesn't strike out much and he walks a lot. IMO, his middle of the road outcome is an everyday player with 10+ hrs, same defense, and gets on base without striking out(some welcome traits to the Orioles).

Dean Kremer has the ceiling of a number 3 starter. He has a fastball at 91-95 with good movement, along with a sweeping curve which misses bats. Guys can't hit his stuff. He also a slider which flashes average and shows some feel for a changeup. Given that he didn't start pitching until a few years ago, I feel pretty confident saying that one of those third pitches will develop. Command will determine his outcome, but he looks like a high-leverage reliever at the worst due to the movement on his pitches and his ability to miss bats. He has an athletic delivery, making me think that he will remain a starter as he will find enough command of his pitches.

Zach Pop could be the biggest sleeper candidate in all of these trades. He has a 95-97 sinker that can touch 99. That is incredibly rare. It has really good life and his delivery has plenty of deception. He has a slider which can flash a 55 grade and two plane movement. Like Kremer, his future will come down to command. He has shown closer stuff and can miss bats. Even with his worst command, he looks like a middle relief pitcher.

Breyvic Valera is a controllable, cheaper Jace Peterson. He has solid speed and can play the middle infield well. He has a good eye and decent bat speed. He is a solid depth piece to have and a useful 25th man on an MLB roster. Nice throw-in.

Rylan Bannon has everyday starter potential. He has good bat speed and can draw walks. However, he does sell out for power and strikes out a lot. He is an above average defender at third and second, giving him ectra value and raising his floor. He has a solid arm and speed, though he is not more than 55 grade at best in either. He might develop into 25 hr, solid defense, decent OBP third/second baseman. At worst, I see him as a Flaherty sort of bat with better speed and hit tool.

Dillon Tate is a personal favorite of mine. At his best, he could become a #2 starter. He flashes three 60 grade pitches. He has a fastball that sits 94-98 with decent movement. He has a slider with good late break and a plus changeup(his best pitch) which he can use against lefties and righties. However, his command is inconsistent. He has an athletic delivery which is hope for improvement with command, but he might have to move to the bullpen. He might be 24, but don't write him off. He could be a late bloomer. I think he will likely become a #3/#4 starter, but he has the stuff to be a high-leverage reliever flirting with 100 mph heater.

Cody Carroll is a great pickup. His fastball sits at 97 and has touched 101 mph. It has decent life and his delivery has deception. He also throws a slider which can flash plus but is currently a 50/55 grade pitch. He is big-league ready and has a safe future as a high-leverage reliever. His ceiling is to become a closer.

Josh Rogers is solid depth. He might become a #5 starter but that is afar from a sure thing. He is a crafty lefty with three 50 grade pitches and above average command. He sits 88-91 with his fastball and I'd need to watch more of him to know what his best pitch is. The hope is that of all the crafty lefties in the system(Rogers, Wells, Lowther, Gonzalez, Means, Zimmerman), one will become a solid backend starter(IMO, Lowther is the safest bet).

Jean Carmona is extremely raw. There is no point in projecting his future outcome at this point. He has limitless ceiling as raw players are somewhat of a crap shoot in their development. He has all the tools you like to see in a player his age(18). He has bat speed, raw power, speed, arm, and fielding instincts. He could become a perennial all star or he might never face major league pitching. We needed players with this sort of upside in the system and we could only get guys with this sort of upside if they are very raw. Great pickup

Luis Ortiz is another guy with #2 starter upside. He has a plus fastball siting in the mid 90s and touching 97. He also has a wipeout slider, along with the feel for a changeup. MLB.com says he has a 45 curveball but I haven't seen it, I assume it is a get-me-over pitch. This kid was a top 100 caliber arm and he still has huge upside. He is 22 and in Norfolk. His command is decent and has a clean delivery. His problem is his conditioning; at his best, he flashes that front half of the rotation potential, other days he just looks mediocre. He has a future as a starter, but his end product all lies on his health/nutrition/conditioning.

Jonathan Villar is two years removed from a 4 war season. He has plus speed, is an above average second baseman, and is a switch hitter. He has 15 hr power and has looked good in his first two games with the O's. If a change of scenery gets him back to 2016 form, he could be the steal of the trade. Some viewed him as a throw in, but he wasn't. He has two more years of control. He is 27 and isn't likely to factor in the next contending team. IF he gets back to form, he will bring back a big return at next year's deadline. 

Jean Carlos Encarnacion is another one of my favorites. He is raw like Carmona and they have similar ceiling/floor. He could become a stud or a bust. He has plus raw power and a nice hit tool. He has a good arm and won't hurt you at third.He is 20 and in delmarva, but he is a guy who has been breaking out. He strikes out a lot and doesn't walk much. I saw that he made mechanical adjustments and has been great since may. Since the all star break he has been selling out for power somewhat, decreasing his average/OBP but his hr number has increased. His OBP abilities are better than they seem and remember that he is raw. Look at the tools, not just the statline(which is actually pretty good), Mountcastle had similar stats in A-ball and no one is complaining about how he has developed. As I said, he is raw. Give him time and he might be something special. I've talked to some Braves fans who think the kid will be special.

Brett Cumberland is a backup catcher at the worst. IMO, that is his outcome. I think his hit tool will continue getting exposed as he progresses in the minors. He is 23 and just promoted to AA. He has a small chance of becoming an everyday starter aty catcher as he has a good eye and some raw power, but it all comes down to his hit tool and defense. Oh yeah, he has defensive questions but most seem to think he will stick behind the plate. He has good mechanics but has fringy arm strength. I see him as a C/1B/LF bench player(he'd need to learn the latter positions but I think he is athletic enough to do  it). He will find his way to the majors due to position, batting eye, and pop. Solid pickup considering the lack of catching depth throughout the minors. 

Evan Phillips is at the worst a Norfolk-shuttle guy(these guys are more valuable than some may think). At hist best, like we saw yesterday, he can be a solid middle reliever. He sits 93-95 and has decent life on the fastball(it seems to ride up in the zone, IMO). He has good command and has two average secondaries in a changeup/slider combo. Athletic delivery and seems to tunnel his pitches really well. Not much deception, but he has some upside. He is only 23 and could be a decent bullpen arm.

Bruce Zimmerman is a sleeper pick for me. He is another crafty lefty sitting at 88-91. However, he has deception, misses bats, and flashes two average secondaries(changeup/slider). IMO, this guy could be a solid bullpen arm as his sinker is his best pitch. It has nice sink and it plays up even more due to deception. It is a 55-ish pitch. He has missed bats and has had success as a starter. He is 23 in AA. I let him start for the duration of this season but move him to the bullpen next year. A bump in velo in short stints, along with his deception and secondaries, give him a profile not dissimalr to our very own Richard Bleier. I think his ceiling is a Swiss army knife out of the bullpen. His floor is org player, but I think he has the best shot of finding big league success as  big league bullpen arm out of all of the soft tossing lefties(he has the best fastball, might be on par with Lowther's running fastball).

Also, the 2.5 million might guarantee that we get potential stud in VVM and also might allow us to acquire a a few of the high ceiling talents remaining on the int'l market like Sandy Gaston. I'll assume that 2.5 will net us three to four high ceiling int'l targets.

Oh and the salary dumped from O'day's contract gives us money to start investing in scouting/analytics/etc.

Overall, the Gausman deal has similar value to the Gray deal and is actually more beneficial to the future of the organization than the Gray package would have been.

These trades gave us:

Financial flexibility

Depth

High ceiling raw talent

Int'l talent

Many solid future big leaguers

 

 

 

 

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

 Not surprisingly you didnt talk about Tate, Roger's, and Ortiz who they all have as 4 or 5 starters.

This "scouting report" was a guy's thoughts,  and did not include players like Pop, Carroll and Bannon.

The fact that Diaz was rated a top 100 prospect was not discussed as well. 

Any scout that thinks all we got are up and down guys in this haul should immediately not be taken seriously. Are their up and down guys in this trade, sure, but to suggest that's all we got is ridiculous.

To be fair, he was only commenting on certain players, not everyone we got.    

[weams]

 

[ThomasTomasz]

On 8/1/2018 at 10:50 AM, weams said:

Adam, Trumbo and Givens should have been traded. But that is a work in progress

Curious to see how you think Trumbo has any value right now?  I just don't see it- his type of benefit (power) is being provided all around the league in spades, subpar defensively and the contract is horrible.  Even if we eat most of it, I can only see a middling prospect in return for him.  

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, ThomasTomasz said:

Curious to see how you think Trumbo has any value right now?  I just don't see it- his type of benefit (power) is being provided all around the league in spades, subpar defensively and the contract is horrible.  Even if we eat most of it, I can only see a middling prospect in return for him.  

I'll take it!

[ThomasTomasz]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'll take it!

Thats the thing......I'd rather wait a year and see if he can rebound without being hurt at the start of the season, and his contract is a whole different story at the deadline next year.  

[weams]

http://www.latimes.com/sports/mlb/la-sp-mlb-shaikin-20180804-story.html

Quote

Ned Colletti was at the World Series, but not as the Dodgers’ general manager. This was two years ago, and two years after the Dodgers’ ownership had replaced him.

The Cleveland Indians had advanced to the World Series, a promised land to which Colletti had failed to lead the Dodgers. The Indians’ best hitter ran into Colletti and looked him straight in the eye.

     “Are you sorry?” Carlos Santana asked.

There is a long answer and a short answer. We’ll get to the long answer. The short answer is no.

 

 

This is the time of year when prospects are in the news, when the trade deadline prompts well-meaning fans to scrutinize prospect rankings and wonder if their team is giving up too many good young talents, mortgaging the future, surrendering too many years of too many players for too few months of one.

We have reached the point where it is not just the prospects that are overhyped. The hype itself is overhyped.

You will never hear of most of these so-called prospects again.

The Dodgers last month traded 10 minor leaguers — five alone for infielder Manny Machado, two for infielder Brian Dozier, two for reliever Dylan Floro, one for reliever John Axford. If more than one or two of those 10 develops into anything beyond a bit player in the major leagues, the Dodgers screwed up.

In his eight years as the Dodgers’ general manager, Colletti made 44 trades, sending 71 players out of town -- not all of them minor leaguers, to be sure.

But, out of the dozens of minor leaguers Colletti traded, how many came back to burn the Dodgers?

One.

 

[atomic]

7 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

 Not surprisingly you didnt talk about Tate, Roger's, and Ortiz who they all have as 4 or 5 starters.

This "scouting report" was a guy's thoughts,  and did not include players like Pop, Carroll and Bannon.

The fact that Diaz was rated a top 100 prospect was not discussed as well. 

Any scout that thinks all we got are up and down guys in this haul should immediately not be taken seriously. Are their up and down guys in this trade, sure, but to suggest that's all we got is ridiculous.

We shall see.   I didn't talk about anything I didn't write the article.   

[now]

44 minutes ago, weams said:

http://www.latimes.com/sports/mlb/la-sp-mlb-shaikin-20180804-story.html

 

Yikes. There must be some counter examples, but reading this, I guess we can settle down and resign ourselves to the outcome of Fire Sale 2000 redux.

[atomic]

26 minutes ago, now said:

Yikes. There must be some counter examples, but reading this, I guess we can settle down and resign ourselves to the outcome of Fire Sale 2000 redux.

My favorite quote is:

 

“Some publications rank the top 30. You don’t really have 30,” Colletti said. “Some of those guys are there to play catch with the guys that are going to end up playing in the show.”