Speed

[Camden_yardbird]

It had a big impact for the Royals last year. I refuse to believe it's dead, and I think as we see more and more pitchers just be horrible at holding runners you will see successful teams "stealing" wins.

The other side of this is of course, [throws hands in air], why are the Orioles so worried about TTP is steals matter less and less. [With as much hyperbole as possible] This organizational philosophy has singlehandedly destroyed every orioles pitching prospect and was the real reason Arrieta never got on track here. An idea implemented before Duq got here, I wonder if this the source of tension between he and Showalter.

[DrungoHazewood]

It had a big impact for the Royals last year. I refuse to believe it's dead, and I think as we see more and more pitchers just be horrible at holding runners you will see successful teams "stealing" wins.

The other side of this is of course, [throws hands in air], why are the Orioles so worried about TTP is steals matter less and less. [With as much hyperbole as possible] This organizational philosophy has singlehandedly destroyed every orioles pitching prospect and was the real reason Arrieta never got on track here. An idea implemented before Duq got here, I wonder if this the source of tension between he and Showalter.

I think the fact that pitchers almost all use slide steps and short, compact stretch positions now is one of the reasons steals aren't up much despite the lower run environment. In 1990 Dave Johnson was notable for having this real simple, quick delivery from the stretch and nobody ever stole against him. I think that's now more like the norm. Minimizing TTP is just what pitchers do now.

[Camden_yardbird]

I think the fact that pitchers almost all use slide steps and short, compact stretch positions now is one of the reasons steals aren't up much despite the lower run environment. In 1990 Dave Johnson was notable for having this real simple, quick delivery from the stretch and nobody ever stole against him. I think that's now more like the norm. Minimizing TTP is just what pitchers do now.

I agree there is just a stronger emphasis on TTP. You would think though that in the lower run environment that stealing a base would be more important. I actually wonder if going from first to third on a base hit is worth more runs over a season than stealing a base.

[OsEatAlEast]

I know this can't really be answered. But I wonder if there are just less fast guys being drafted as opposed to it being strategic planning. I really can't remember the last guy the O's drafted because he could fly. I remember hearing things like that in the late 80's and early 90's. But now you will almost never read that in a scouting report.

[Can_of_corn]

I know this can't really be answered. But I wonder if there are just less fast guys being drafted as opposed to it being strategic planning. I really can't remember the last guy the O's drafted because he could fly. I remember hearing things like that in the late 80's and early 90's. But now you will almost never read that in a scouting report.

Matt Angle?

[DrungoHazewood]

I know this can't really be answered. But I wonder if there are just less fast guys being drafted as opposed to it being strategic planning. I really can't remember the last guy the O's drafted because he could fly. I remember hearing things like that in the late 80's and early 90's. But now you will almost never read that in a scouting report.

I think it's probably true that there were more guys who couldn't really play baseball but could fly back before they realized that didn't work. Outside of Billy Hamilton there aren't any of those guys. But I suppose it's an open question as to whether that's because they don't get drafted/developed or because conditions aren't conducive to them doing that any more. Hamilton might be the fastest player ever but he doesn't steal nearly as often or quite as successfully as the top guys from 30-40 years ago.

[Ohfan67]

I agree there is just a stronger emphasis on TTP. You would think though that in the lower run environment that stealing a base would be more important. I actually wonder if going from first to third on a base hit is worth more runs over a season than stealing a base.

Flip side of the coin: in an environment with fewer baserunners every baserunner is more valuable. A caught stealing may be more costly in this environment.

[OsEatAlEast]

I think it's probably true that there were more guys who couldn't really play baseball but could fly back before they realized that didn't work. Outside of Billy Hamilton there aren't any of those guys. But I suppose it's an open question as to whether that's because they don't get drafted/developed or because conditions aren't conducive to them doing that any more. Hamilton might be the fastest player ever but he doesn't steal nearly as often or quite as successfully as the top guys from 30-40 years ago.

Remember Junior Felix? Didn't the Blue Jays sign him as an amateur FA after seeing him at a track meet in the Dominican? I don't even think they knew whether or not he could actually play baseball.

I've always secretly wished the O's would get a team back in the Appy league. Then go to track meets and pro softball leagues and sign the fastest runners along with those big guys that can launch the ball a mile. That's how I'd do it if I were to look for toolsy guys. Then draft guys who were good ballplayers already even if you think the ceiling is lower for said player.

[DrungoHazewood]

Flip side of the coin: in an environment with fewer baserunners every baserunner is more valuable. A caught stealing may be more costly in this environment.

The break-even point on stolen bases is roughly correlated to run environment. If teams were scoring two runs a game that point would probably be near 50%, compared to about 70% today. In the Pecos League, an Indy League that scores seven runs a game, the break-even point has to be about 80%, so pretty much nobody should ever try to steal.

[DrungoHazewood]

Remember Junior Felix? Didn't the Blue Jays sign him as an amateur FA after seeing him at a track meet in the Dominican? I don't even think they knew whether or not he could actually play baseball.

I've always secretly wished the O's would get a team back in the Appy league. Then go to track meets and pro softball leagues and sign the fastest runners along with those big guys that can launch the ball a mile. That's how I'd do it if I were to look for toolsy guys. Then draft guys who were good ballplayers already even if you think the ceiling is lower for said player.

The Royals kind of had that idea back in the 70s with their baseball academy. It did work occasionally, I'm pretty sure Frank White came out of that. He ended up being about as good as you can be with a D- on-base percentage.

[Ohfan67]

The break-even point on stolen bases is roughly correlated to run environment. If teams were scoring two runs a game that point would probably be near 50%, compared to about 70% today. In the Pecos League, an Indy League that scores seven runs a game, the break-even point has to be about 80%, so pretty much nobody should ever try to steal.

Good info. Thanks.

[Enjoy Terror]

Matt Angle?

I was going to say Kyle Hudson

[scOtt]

Dead. Just like Rock 'n' Roll.

[video=youtube;GqzzAyGl3zA]

[Natty]

We are dead last in the majors with 12 steals. I couldn't help but notice when we played San Diego that Upton has more steals than our entire team.

I know it would be bad to have someone thrown out trying to steal when someone else hits a home run in the inning. But dead last. Lets run on catchers that cant throw runners out. And Rickard should steal everytime he gets on against a catcher with bad numbers at throwing runners out. He may be the fastest player in the American League. Lets see what he can do. And we have other fast guys also, Lets add some excitement to the game but not be reckless.

Base stealing...its an offensive tool to be used. What say you all?

[Can_of_corn]

We are dead last in the majors with 12 steals. I couldn't help but notice when we played San Diego that Upton has more steals than our entire team.

I know it would be bad to have someone thrown out trying to steal when someone else hits a home run in the inning. But dead last. Lets run on catchers that cant throw runners out. And Rickard should steal everytime he gets on. He may be the fastest player in the American League. Lets see what he can do. And we have other fast guys also, Lets add some excitement to the game but not be reckless.

Base stealing...its an offensive tool to be used. What say you all?

Honestly?

That you need to understand how math works.

The O's, as currently configured, would not have a high enough success rate to lead to an increase in runs scored.

A team's most precious commodity is outs. Instead of a clock you have outs. Outs should be treasured, not given away.