Predict the 25-Man Roster for Opening Day (2019)

[MurphDogg]

13 hours ago, El Gordo said:

Why quibble over 1M? And what FA C are you getting better for less than 1.5M?

Caleb is a replacement level catcher entering his age 33 season. Any number of fringe 40-man roster catchers are likely to be just as good as Caleb, with higher upside. The bottom line is, Caleb isn't likely to be a contributor on this team the next time they will be any good, why not see if there is someone else out there being overlooked? What is the downside?

[OriolesMagic83]

On 9/8/2018 at 7:18 PM, OriolesMagic83 said:

SP1 - Bundy
SP2 - Cobb
SP3 - Cashner
SP4 - Hess
SP5 - Means

RP - Tyler Clippard
RP - Araujo
RP - Castro
RP - Fry
RP - Scott
RP - Bleier
CL - Givens

1B - Davis
2B - Villar
SS - Beckham
3B - Wilkerson
CA - Joseph
LF - Mancini
CF - Mullins
RF - Rickard
DH - Trumbo

Bench - Gentry
Bench - Wynns
Bench - Flaherty
Bench - Matt Joyce

The O's big free agent signings will be Flaherty, Joyce, and Clippard.  The O's have Flaherty on speed dial the moment the season ends.  I believe that the O's will sign some mediocre RP free agent.  Someone who will sign for around 1 yr/$3 mill.  I picked Clippard at random, I'm not sure if he would sign for that amount.

Based on how much Beckham would get in arbitration, I predict the O's will trade (there's all that international money if they don't sign Victor Mesa) or release him.   I think Iglesias would be a good pickup and would make the O's infield defense above average by keeping Villar at 2b and putting Wilkerson at 3b.  The O's don't have a SS prospect anywhere near the majors, so signing Iglesias to a 2 year deal w/ an option or even a 3 year deal doesn't sound bad.  I also replaced Davis w/ Mancini at 1b.  I don't think Davis will be released in the offseason, but I think he might get limited at bats unless he has a great spring training.  I believe that Stewart deserves a shot at LF and is definitely a better outfielder than Mancini.

SP1 - Bundy
SP2 - Cobb
SP3 - Cashner
SP4 - Hess
SP5 - Means

RP - Tyler Clippard
RP - Araujo
RP - Castro
RP - Fry
RP - Scott
RP - Bleier
CL - Givens

1B - Mancini
2B - Villar
SS - Iglesias
3B - Wilkerson
CA - Joseph
LF - Stewart
CF - Mullins
RF - Rickard
DH - Trumbo

Bench - Gentry
Bench - Wynns
Bench - Flaherty
Bench - Davis

[wildcard]

I don't know about opening day but here is who I think opens ST as at the favorite for each position

SP1 - Cobb, though he could be traded over the off season
SP2 - Bundy,   his trade value is low.  The O's hold on to him
SP3 - Cashner,   No one wants that one year contract until be proves he can have a better year
SP4 - Hess,   he earned a rotation spot to start the season
SP5 - Pick em - Ramirez, Ortiz, Rogers, Means, Yacabonis.  A good spring could have any one of them in the rotation.  They all have options so the Norfolk shuttle will probably be in full swing.

RP - Ramirez, if he does not make the rotation.  Pitched better as a reliever.
RP - Gilmartin
RP - Araujo for 17 days
RP - Castro
RP - Fry
RP - Bleier
CL -Givens, if not traded.  Someone makes a good offer and he is gone.

1B - Mancini and Davis have a competition in ST.   If Davis does not hit better he will find himself as a defensive reserve.
2B - Pick em - Valera, Wilkerson, (Corban Joseph invited to camp on a AAA contract).  
SS -  Villar
3B - Nunez
CA - Wynns
LF -  Stewart with Mancini spelling him went Davis plays 1B.
CF - Mullins
RF - Rickard  until Hays, Diaz or maybe Mesa are ready to push him out.
DH - Trumbo

Bench - Davis
Bench - Valera, Wilkerson,  Corban Joseph  or a Rule 5 draftee
Bench -  Caleb Joseph resigned to a minor league contract that pays 1M if he makes the Opening Day roster.    He is planned as a backup catcher so Sisco and Cervenka can start the season at AAA.  Remember Caleb has options.
Bench - Yaz,  4th OF until Hays, Diaz or Mesa push Rickard out of RF and Rickard  become the 4th OFer.

[wildcard]

13 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Based on how much Beckham would get in arbitration, I predict the O's will trade (there's all that international money if they don't sign Victor Mesa) or release him.   I think Iglesias would be a good pickup and would make the O's infield defense above average by keeping Villar at 2b and putting Wilkerson at 3b.  The O's don't have a SS prospect anywhere near the majors, so signing Iglesias to a 2 year deal w/ an option or even a 3 year deal doesn't sound bad.  I also replaced Davis w/ Mancini at 1b.  I don't think Davis will be released in the offseason, but I think he might get limited at bats unless he has a great spring training.  I believe that Stewart deserves a shot at LF and is definitely a better outfielder than Mancini.

SP1 - Bundy
SP2 - Cobb
SP3 - Cashner
SP4 - Hess
SP5 - Means

RP - Tyler Clippard
RP - Araujo
RP - Castro
RP - Fry
RP - Scott
RP - Bleier
CL - Givens

1B - Mancini
2B - Villar
SS - Iglesias
3B - Wilkerson
CA - Joseph
LF - Stewart
CF - Mullins
RF - Rickard
DH - Trumbo

Bench - Gentry
Bench - Wynns
Bench - Flaherty
Bench - Davis

My bet is that the O's do not spend on FA.   Maybe they bring back Caleb for 1M.

[El Gordo]

4 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

Caleb is a replacement level catcher entering his age 33 season. Any number of fringe 40-man roster catchers are likely to be just as good as Caleb, with higher upside. The bottom line is, Caleb isn't likely to be a contributor on this team the next time they will be any good, why not see if there is someone else out there being overlooked? What is the downside?

You are not getting anyone who contributes to a future wining O's team for less than 1.5 M. Why not keep Caleb and draft Adley Rutschman?

[MurphDogg]

39 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

You are not getting anyone who contributes to a future wining O's team for less than 1.5 M. Why not keep Caleb and draft Adley Rutschman?

Yan Gomes was traded from the Blue Jays to the Indians as a throw-in to the Esmil Rogers - Mike Aviles trade,  due to a 40-man roster crunch. The Indians were coming off of a 68-win season and Gomes had never come close to cracking the Blue Jays top 30 prospects. Gomes has since made an All-Star team, won a Silver Slugger, and made the playoffs four times.

I know what Caleb's ceiling is, I have to imagine there is someone with a future available for a pittance. Why not take a shot at one? If this hypothetical player costs the Orioles a win next year that Caleb would have provided, who cares?

[El Gordo]

5 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Yan Gomes was traded from the Blue Jays to the Indians as a throw-in to the Esmil Rogers - Mike Aviles trade,  due to a 40-man roster crunch. The Indians were coming off of a 68-win season and Gomes had never come close to cracking the Blue Jays top 30 prospects. Gomes has since made an All-Star team, won a Silver Slugger, and made the playoffs four times.

I know what Caleb's ceiling is, I have to imagine there is someone with a future available for a pittance. Why not take a shot at one? If this hypothetical player costs the Orioles a win next year that Caleb would have provided, who cares?

Right there are Gomes growing on trees. Who's your Gomes today?

[MurphDogg]

1 hour ago, El Gordo said:

Right there are Gomes growing on trees. Who's your Gomes today?

Not Caleb. I have no idea, but I would rather try someone who hasn't had an opportunity yet and has a 1 percent chance of being Gomes, vs. Caleb who has a zero percent chance. Just roll the dice on a minor league catcher that the team thinks has upside. There is no reason for the Orioles to carry a position player who is already declining. You can make an argument that there is value in a losing team carrying innings eater starting pitchers with no ceiling, to protect the other starters and the bullpen but it doesn't make sense for a position player.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

Not Caleb. I have no idea, but I would rather try someone who hasn't had an opportunity yet and has a 1 percent chance of being Gomes, vs. Caleb who has a zero percent chance. Just roll the dice on a minor league catcher that the team thinks has upside. There is no reason for the Orioles to carry a position player who is already declining. You can make an argument that there is value in a losing team carrying innings eater starting pitchers with no ceiling, to protect the other starters and the bullpen but it doesn't make sense for a position player.

The O's have Wynns, Ssico and Cervenka.  All inexperienced.   I think the O's need to give Wynns a chance to be the starting catcher.  And his backup should be someone with experience. Someone cheap.  I am ok with Caleb but its does not have to him if there is another cheap experienced backup catcher that is better than Caleb that will sign with the O's.

[eddie83]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

The O's have Wynns, Ssico and Cervenka.  All inexperienced.   I think the O's need to give Wynns a chance to be the starting catcher.  And his backup should be someone with experience. Someone cheap.  I am ok with Caleb but its does not have to him if there is another cheap experienced backup catcher that is better than Caleb that will sign with the O's.

Is Wynns capable of being an everyday C? 

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, eddie83 said:

Is Wynns capable of being an everyday C? 

I think we will be asking that about a lot of players next year.   And the only way to find out is to give them a chance.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Is Wynns capable of being an everyday C? 

Replacement level?

Sure.

[eddie83]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Replacement level?

Sure.

 

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I think we will be asking that about a lot of players next year.   And the only way to find out is to give them a chance.

I am referring more to the workload. Some players are not capable of playing 110-120 games at that position.  

[wildcard]

Just now, eddie83 said:

 

I am referring more to the workload. Some players are not capable of playing 110-120 games at that position.  

Wynn could be the starting catcher and only start 90 games as long as he has a decent backup.   Wynns started 110 games in 2017 between Bowie and the winter league.

[eddie83]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Wynn could be the starting catcher and only start 90 games as long as he has a decent backup.   Wynns started 110 games in 2017 between Bowie and the winter league.

Perhaps. I think some veteran will be here. Who that is I do not know. I hope Sisco turns it around but I admit I do not have much confidence.  Maybe a new coaching staff can help.