Mesa Brothers Declared Free Agents By MLB

[wildcard]

Where would you place VVM in the O's Top 30 Prospect? If the O's sign him.

[Finisher]

1 hour ago, Malike said:

Wait, you think Moncada is a bust? LOL.

No, I called Olivera a bust. I stated Moncada has a .695 OPS. Obviously he's young and talented, not writing him off but he's had a rough year with the bat going .226/.306 OBP/.698 OPS with 200+ strikeouts.

Rusney Castillo, Hector Olivera, Alex Guerrero, Moncada generally had much better offensive stats at same ages and level as VVM. Moncada is 23 and obviously has plenty of time but the majority of these recent Cubans have been flops.

What is the equivalent of the CNS? High A ball? Not quite AA?

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Finisher said:

No, I called Olivera a bust. I stated Moncada has a .695 OPS. Obviously he's young and talented, not writing him off but he's had a rough year with the bat going .226/.306 OBP/.698 OPS with 200+ strikeouts.

Rusney Castillo, Hector Olivera, Alex Guerrero, Moncada generally had much better offensive stats at same ages and level as VVM. Moncada is 23 and obviously has plenty of time but the majority of these recent Cubans have been flops.

What is the equivalent of the CNS? High A ball? Not quite AA?

I’ve heard plenty of debate about that, and it seems that it’s really a wide range of talent in the league. One AB you could be facing MLB quality talent, the next a high school age player who wouldn’t get drafted. So it’s not really like any specific level, which makes it hard to scout the stat line with any accuracy. 

[atomic]

21 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

So you think teams were willing to pay a pitcher 4.3 WAR value, when that pitcher had negative WAR the previous three years. Teams pay players based on internal projections, not exactly publically available WAR measures but along the same lines with much more available Trackman data included. They pay a player on what is expected going forward, a true talent 3.5 WAR player in their prime would get close to 30M per.

That's why the age of a player when they reach free agency is so important. If a guy who has been 3.5 WAR for the first 6 years of his career hits free agency at 30yo, assuming a 6 year deal, would get paid for 3 WAR, 2.5 WAR, 2 WAR, 1.5 WAR, 1 WAR, .5 WAR per a standard aging curve (teams probably have more exact aging curves they apply based on position, speed, and other variables). That's 10.5 WAR over 6 years, so about 6/90m, which is an emminently reasonable salary for that type of player and might be light.

  

You are cherry picking stats.  You state Arrieta based on the one previous year. Completely ignoring his 8 WAR season and then you say but., but but we can't ignore Cashner's previous seasons.  The fact is no one is going to pay a guy who is part time player who can't hit left handers who's best years was Gentry's best year 30 million a year it is ridiculous. 

[atomic]

19 hours ago, sevastras said:

I’m sure some of us feel as though we can’t believe we have to argue against you. 

A-his ceiling isn’t Gentry, I have not seen anyone say that prior to today. 

2-Gentry got roughly $7mm over the last 6 years. I’d give a $4mm signing bonus to anyone that would produce Gentry’s career(if it was guaranteed they produced that)

finally-you would probably call the team cheap if this was pre-cba for the current system. Crying he is the top guy, why won’t they cough up the $15+ million some other team was willing to?  

I mean really, you have a chance at one of the top int prospects for 3-7 million(bottom to absolute max) why are you so hung up on one person asking about his ceiling being Gentry when it has never been said before and probably isn’t his ceiling? If I told you his ceiling in my view was Starling Marte, would you be having these same reservations?  I would hope it is his trajectory but there is too little info and competition to make that a definitive opinion. 

 

I can't believe this post.  Are you arguing that his potential is Gentry or not?  I mean pick a side.  I never said his potential was Gentry. I was under the impression he was the best international prospect available this year. 

And No I would not expect the team to cough up 15 million signing bonus for anyone.  I am responding to someone's comment.  If you have a problem with a comment reply to them not me.  

I said if he is worth a 4 million signing bonus he is worth a 6 million dollar signing bonus.  I don't know anything about the guy than what has been posted on the Internet.  I haven't seen him play.  But if he is the top International prospect he is worth 6 million.

If his upside is the next Gentry I would not sign him for 4 million.  Save the money for next year.  Sign a bunch of 16 year olds and hope down the road one become a major league regular.  Teams are trending towards 3 man benches.  A guy who can't hit right-handed pitching and plays the outfield is not someone who will exist in the major leagues going forward. 

[Luke-OH]

8 minutes ago, atomic said:

You are cherry picking stats.  You state Arrieta based on the one previous year. Completely ignoring his 8 WAR season and then you say but., but but we can't ignore Cashner's previous seasons.  The fact is no one is going to pay a guy who is part time player who can't hit left handers who's best years was Gentry's best year 30 million a year it is ridiculous. 

Fair enough, I'm trying to give examples as are you, here is real data analysis from 2014 (obviously there will be some inflation between then and now, but similar results). The number is very similar to COC's 8.5m #.

https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/methodology-and-calculations-of-dollars-per-war/

 

 

[Malike]

2 hours ago, Finisher said:

No, I called Olivera a bust. I stated Moncada has a .695 OPS. Obviously he's young and talented, not writing him off but he's had a rough year with the bat going .226/.306 OBP/.698 OPS with 200+ strikeouts.

Rusney Castillo, Hector Olivera, Alex Guerrero, Moncada generally had much better offensive stats at same ages and level as VVM. Moncada is 23 and obviously has plenty of time but the majority of these recent Cubans have been flops.

What is the equivalent of the CNS? High A ball? Not quite AA?

Okay I'm not arguing that plenty of recent international players have busted. You put Moncada's name in there for some reason. His OPS is .704 in his first full season at 23 years old. He's hitting for power and playing decent defense and been worth 1.5 WAR. At the same age, Schoop put up a 1.4 WAR and I never heard anyone mention him when talking about busts. I just found it curious that his name was put in there at all.

[atomic]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

 Fair enough, I'm trying to give examples as are you, here is real data analysis from 2014 (obviously there will be some inflation between then and now, but similar results). The number is very similar to COC's 8.5m #.

 https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/methodology-and-calculations-of-dollars-per-war/

 

 

Also I think people get too stuck on WAR sometimes.  Gentry's 3.5 WAR as a part time outfielder is not as valuable as the 3.5 WAR from a starting pitcher who can pitch 200 innings.  You obviously can't have a team full of players who only play half the games.   Also he had listed as 2.3 offensive WAR that year but only scored 38 runs and had 22 RBIS. WAR is not a perfect stat and people seem to believe in it unquestionably 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

3 minutes ago, atomic said:

Also I think people get too stuck on WAR sometimes.  Gentry's 3.5 WAR as a part time outfielder is not as valuable as the 3.5 WAR from a starting pitcher who can pitch 200 innings.  You obviously can't have a team full of players who only play half the games.   Also he had listed as 2.3 offensive WAR that year but only scored 38 runs and had 22 RBIS. WAR is not a perfect stat and people seem to believe in it unquestionably 

Gentry had value in 2012-13, but I’m not going to go crazy for a part time player who put up OPS+ of 102 and 109.

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, atomic said:

Also I think people get too stuck on WAR sometimes.  Gentry's 3.5 WAR as a part time outfielder is not as valuable as the 3.5 WAR from a starting pitcher who can pitch 200 innings.  You obviously can't have a team full of players who only play half the games.   Also he had listed as 2.3 offensive WAR that year but only scored 38 runs and had 22 RBIS. WAR is not a perfect stat and people seem to believe in it unquestionably 

Would you rather have 6+ years of the position player or 2+ years of the pitcher?

[Moose Milligan]

Have you guys seen any speculation anywhere about when they'll sign?

Gotta imagine the teams had enough time to get their offers lined up so they could be ready to go when they got the green light.  

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Have you guys seen any speculation anywhere about when they'll sign?

Gotta imagine the teams had enough time to get their offers lined up so they could be ready to go when they got the green light.  

I think the only hold up left is a showcase, probably more to give the appearance that negotiations haven't already been underway and to give teams a chance to scout the younger brother more than anything VVM related. 

[Moose Milligan]

9 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I think the only hold up left is a showcase, probably more to give the appearance that negotiations haven't already been underway and to give teams a chance to scout the younger brother more than anything VVM related. 

Gotcha, forgot about the showcase.

[sevastras]

4 hours ago, atomic said:

I can't believe this post.  Are you arguing that his potential is Gentry or not?  I mean pick a side.  I never said his potential was Gentry. I was under the impression he was the best international prospect available this year. 

And No I would not expect the team to cough up 15 million signing bonus for anyone.  I am responding to someone's comment.  If you have a problem with a comment reply to them not me.  

I said if he is worth a 4 million signing bonus he is worth a 6 million dollar signing bonus.  I don't know anything about the guy than what has been posted on the Internet.  I haven't seen him play.  But if he is the top International prospect he is worth 6 million.

If his upside is the next Gentry I would not sign him for 4 million.  Save the money for next year.  Sign a bunch of 16 year olds and hope down the road one become a major league regular.  Teams are trending towards 3 man benches.  A guy who can't hit right-handed pitching and plays the outfield is not someone who will exist in the major leagues going forward. 

What can’t you believe?  You said that you wouldn’t give someone of Gentry’s career level $4mm signing bonus, I said I would all day every day if you guaranteed Gentry level production over the course of his career. 

VVM has been said to be the top prospect for this year. Again, as I have said 50 times, this year is a decent year stacked between two exceptional quality years. Last year and next are supposedly top years. That said, I can see VVM as an everyday player and potential all star as a ceiling. With limited information, I think Jr may be better but further out which means he has more time to hurt himself or not pan out. 

I would have given Ohtani, Darvish, Puig and several others $15mm in a heart beat. Probably given Ohtani $30mm if he would be happy to pitch only. 

If he is worth $4 than he is worth $6. I agree, then you say if his upside is Gentry then pass. I argued that Gentry level production is worth $4-$6. 

Then you said save the money for next year if that is the case. You can’t carry over money between IFA years, which I will give you the credit of already knowing(not being a dbag, I know you are reading enough to know that on here). I would argue that saving money from one year to the next is not something that teams actually do. 

“Let’s save $4m in spending this year and we will invest that on another player next year.”  That is my assumption of your statement.  My thinking is, “should we spend and can we move things around to make this make sense. “ 

Your thinking is a way of thinking that there is a finite amount of money to spend. I argue that there is not, otherwise you probably shouldn’t have been approved to own a professional team. 

Finally, I agree. If you have a top notch team, Gentry is a 4th OF. Defensive replacement, speed on the bases, great piece for a NL team.  My whole arguement is that Gentry level production is still worth that #. 

If you can’t believe any of this post, I really don’t know what else I can do for you.  

[Luke-OH]

6 minutes ago, sevastras said:

What can’t you believe?  You said that you wouldn’t give someone of Gentry’s career level $4mm signing bonus, I said I would all day every day if you guaranteed Gentry level production over the course of his career. 

VVM has been said to be the top prospect for this year. Again, as I have said 50 times, this year is a decent year stacked between two exceptional quality years. Last year and next are supposedly top years. That said, I can see VVM as an everyday player and potential all star as a ceiling. With limited information, I think Jr may be better but further out which means he has more time to hurt himself or not pan out. 

I would have given Ohtani, Darvish, Puig and several others $15mm in a heart beat. Probably given Ohtani $30mm if he would be happy to pitch only. 

If he is worth $4 than he is worth $6. I agree, then you say if his upside is Gentry then pass. I argued that Gentry level production is worth $4-$6. 

Then you said save the money for next year if that is the case. You can’t carry over money between IFA years, which I will give you the credit of already knowing(not being a dbag, I know you are reading enough to know that on here). I would argue that saving money from one year to the next is not something that teams actually do. 

“Let’s save $4m in spending this year and we will invest that on another player next year.”  That is my assumption of your statement.  My thinking is, “should we spend and can we move things around to make this make sense. “ 

Your thinking is a way of thinking that there is a finite amount of money to spend. I argue that there is not, otherwise you probably shouldn’t have been approved to own a professional team. 

Finally, I agree. If you have a top notch team, Gentry is a 4th OF. Defensive replacement, speed on the bases, great piece for a NL team.  My whole arguement is that Gentry level production is still worth that #. 

If you can’t believe any of this post, I really don’t know what else I can do for you.  

It's beginning to look like Ohtani would have been worth 30mm+ to hit only.