Who to "thank" for our 1st pick in 2019

[FanSince88]

We are currently 9 games "ahead" of the Royals for the worst record in baseball.  

Chris Davis's WAR is -2.6.  Furthermore, Davis's presence on the roster at first base forces Mancini and Trumbo to the outfield.  Mancini has a -2.1 dWAR and Trumbo has a -1.3 dWAR.  Thus, it can reasonably be argued -- assuming either Trumbo or Mancini could have provided roughly replacement-level defense at 1B -- that Davis has cost us six wins below replacement this season.

Elsewhere, Tillman has a -1.1 WAR.  Evan Philips has a -0.7 WAR.  Santander has a -0.4 WAR.  

Summing all these negative values up, it comes to about -8.1 WAR, and rounding up to the next integer gives us our 9 games.

So, "thanks" to Davis, Tillman, Philips, and Santander, we are in position for the 1st draft pick next year.  

[Redskins Rick]

4 minutes ago, FanSince88 said:

We are currently 9 games "ahead" of the Royals for the worst record in baseball.  

Chris Davis's WAR is -2.6.  Furthermore, Davis's presence on the roster at first base forces Mancini and Trumbo to the outfield.  Mancini has a -2.1 dWAR and Trumbo has a -1.3 dWAR.  Thus, it can reasonably be argued -- assuming either Trumbo or Mancini could have provided roughly replacement-level defense at 1B -- that Davis has cost us six wins below replacement this season.

Elsewhere, Tillman has a -1.1 WAR.  Evan Philips has a -0.7 WAR.  Santander has a -0.4 WAR.  

Summing all these negative values up, it comes to about -8.1 WAR, and rounding up to the next integer gives us our 9 games.

So, "thanks" to Davis, Tillman, Philips, and Santander, we are in position for the 1st draft pick next year.  

My thanks go to Peter. Success and failure starts at the top.

 

[Cumberbundy]

Dan, hold on to him and we could be picking first for a long time. There is a decent chance that the best of the 2028 draft class will be in Baltimore. 

[Tx Oriole]

2 hours ago, FanSince88 said:

We are currently 9 games "ahead" of the Royals for the worst record in baseball.  

Chris Davis's WAR is -2.6.  Furthermore, Davis's presence on the roster at first base forces Mancini and Trumbo to the outfield.  Mancini has a -2.1 dWAR and Trumbo has a -1.3 dWAR.  Thus, it can reasonably be argued -- assuming either Trumbo or Mancini could have provided roughly replacement-level defense at 1B -- that Davis has cost us six wins below replacement this season.

Elsewhere, Tillman has a -1.1 WAR.  Evan Philips has a -0.7 WAR.  Santander has a -0.4 WAR.  

Summing all these negative values up, it comes to about -8.1 WAR, and rounding up to the next integer gives us our 9 games.

So, "thanks" to Davis, Tillman, Philips, and Santander, we are in position for the 1st draft pick next year.  

Thank the Three Stooges. DD, Brady and Buck. And ownership. Hopefully the Three Stooges will be gone from Baltimore. 

[wildbillhiccup]

2 hours ago, FanSince88 said:

We are currently 9 games "ahead" of the Royals for the worst record in baseball.  

Chris Davis's WAR is -2.6.  Furthermore, Davis's presence on the roster at first base forces Mancini and Trumbo to the outfield.  Mancini has a -2.1 dWAR and Trumbo has a -1.3 dWAR.  Thus, it can reasonably be argued -- assuming either Trumbo or Mancini could have provided roughly replacement-level defense at 1B -- that Davis has cost us six wins below replacement this season.

Elsewhere, Tillman has a -1.1 WAR.  Evan Philips has a -0.7 WAR.  Santander has a -0.4 WAR.  

Summing all these negative values up, it comes to about -8.1 WAR, and rounding up to the next integer gives us our 9 games.

So, "thanks" to Davis, Tillman, Philips, and Santander, we are in position for the 1st draft pick next year.  

You need to think bigger picture. And all of these men need to not be with the team next season. 

Dan - Despite his new found interest in being part of the rebuild he's basically been phoning it in since the whole Blue Jays debacle. 

Buck - His insistence to play and/or sign "his guys" even though they have no business being on a MLB roster.

Brady - The unsung hero because he quietly pulls strings and manipulates behind the scenes far from the reach of criticism. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

It was a team effort.  

[Cumberbundy]

4 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

It was a team effort.  

You can’t get this bad, unintentionally, without multiple entities failing miserably. 

[eddie83]

7 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

You need to think bigger picture. And all of these men need to not be with the team next season. 

Dan - Despite his new found interest in being part of the rebuild he's basically been phoning it in since the whole Blue Jays debacle. 

Buck - His insistence to play and/or sign "his guys" even though they have no business being on a MLB roster.

Brady - The unsung hero because he quietly pulls strings and manipulates behind the scenes far from the reach of criticism. 

So Dan has been phoning it in for 4 years and the rest of the franchise let him get away with it? 

More power to him for making good money for doing nothing for 4 years.   

[theocean]

3 hours ago, FanSince88 said:

We are currently 9 games "ahead" of the Royals for the worst record in baseball.  

Chris Davis's WAR is -2.6.  Furthermore, Davis's presence on the roster at first base forces Mancini and Trumbo to the outfield.  Mancini has a -2.1 dWAR and Trumbo has a -1.3 dWAR.  Thus, it can reasonably be argued -- assuming either Trumbo or Mancini could have provided roughly replacement-level defense at 1B -- that Davis has cost us six wins below replacement this season.

Elsewhere, Tillman has a -1.1 WAR.  Evan Philips has a -0.7 WAR.  Santander has a -0.4 WAR.  

Summing all these negative values up, it comes to about -8.1 WAR, and rounding up to the next integer gives us our 9 games.

So, "thanks" to Davis, Tillman, Philips, and Santander, we are in position for the 1st draft pick next year.  

Davis is the MVP because he's terrible and his existence forces Mancini out of position. Also, his attitude and big-contract-but-doesn't-care vibe seems toxic to any clubhouse trying to establish a winning culture.

I know the O's won't cut him, but I think getting rid of Davis would speed up the rebuild so much.

[weams]

 

[Chromehill]

Peter G Angelos.  Basically this has been a dysfunctional organization since he bought the team.  You can't expect your experts to do a good job when you constantly undermine them or take key decisions out of their hands which essentially ruins their plans and direction for the team.  I am not saying that Buck and Dan could not have done a better job, plenty of blame to go around, Pete is the main culprit in this fiasco. 

[Aglets]

Really cool article, thanks weams!

Gives us just a slight glimmer of hope that the worst team in modern baseball history could go from 43 wins to the World Series in 3 years.    Not that that should be our expectation.

[spiritof66]

18 minutes ago, Chromehill said:

Peter G Angelos.  Basically this has been a dysfunctional organization since he bought the team.  You can't expect your experts to do a good job when you constantly undermine them or take key decisions out of their hands which essentially ruins their plans and direction for the team.  I am not saying that Buck and Dan could not have done a better job, plenty of blame to go around, Pete is the main culprit in this fiasco. 

Of course Duquette deserves a chunk of the blame for creating this mess. But it's impossible to know how much is on him because we don't know what bad strategies and poor decisions were his. As I've said many times, I think Peter Angelos's desperate desire to get a team to the World Series in the short term, his opposition or disinterest in building a successful franchise for the future, and his holding on to that objective long after the team's priorities should have been shifted were responsible for a lot of the bad moves that the Orioles made.

That's my belief, supported by what I've observed, what I've read in the media and on these pages, and what little I know about the people involved. But I know very few of the underlying facts. Maybe we'll learn more about them someday.

One fact I do know is that a hallmark of the Angelos regime has been, and continues to be, a consistent refusal to communicate with the fan base (and potential fans) about the team. That may be fine if you're the Red Sox or Cardinals, with an enormous and loyal fanbase grown through many generations, and you're consistently putting a successful team on the field. It's really stupid when you're in a smaller market, trying to retain and add fans in competition with a star-filled team in Washington that has a new ballpark, and presenting to those fans an historically crappy product. As a number of posts of mentioned, the owner and his sons don't "owe" Orioles fans a damn thing. But if they want to maintain over the next few years what's left of the team's fan support, they ought to communicate with us and commit to some changes. 

We're left with waiting for ownership to demonstrate that it has a real commitment to doing -- and spending -- what it takes to get this ship turned around and moving in the right direction. So far, all we have seen is that the Orioles know how to get rid of some of the guys it signed to expensive salaries. Reducing the ML payroll is a good start, but only a start. I've seen no commitment to additional investment in the areas that Duquette -- though not the Angeloses -- have identified as needing more financial support. 

 

[weams]

2 hours ago, Aglets said:

Really cool article, thanks weams!

Gives us just a slight glimmer of hope that the worst team in modern baseball history could go from 43 wins to the World Series in 3 years.    Not that that should be our expectation.

Thanks. It sure is something to think about.. 

[pastorfan]

6 hours ago, FanSince88 said:

We are currently 9 games "ahead" of the Royals for the worst record in baseball.  

Chris Davis's WAR is -2.6.  Furthermore, Davis's presence on the roster at first base forces Mancini and Trumbo to the outfield.  Mancini has a -2.1 dWAR and Trumbo has a -1.3 dWAR.  Thus, it can reasonably be argued -- assuming either Trumbo or Mancini could have provided roughly replacement-level defense at 1B -- that Davis has cost us six wins below replacement this season.

Elsewhere, Tillman has a -1.1 WAR.  Evan Philips has a -0.7 WAR.  Santander has a -0.4 WAR.  

Summing all these negative values up, it comes to about -8.1 WAR, and rounding up to the next integer gives us our 9 games.

So, "thanks" to Davis, Tillman, Philips, and Santander, we are in position for the 1st draft pick next year.  

Problem is: Who is going to make the pick? Do they know what they are doing? Unfortunately, there is no Griffey, Jr., ARod, or Harper type of obvious first pick at this point.