Buck and Dan's home run strategy did not help the O's

[weams]

We all make mistakes.

 

 

[DrungoHazewood]

On 10/6/2018 at 7:58 AM, weams said:

Luck. Sheer luck. 

No, no, no.  Whomever wins the Series did it by careful planning and brilliant strategy.  They've figured out the game, and are ushering in a grand new era of enlightenment just like they had in France, and not a moment too soon.

I haven't really kept up with the World Champion Royals lately, how has the enlightenment been going the last few years?

[weams]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

No, no, no.  Whomever wins the Series did it by careful planning and brilliant strategy.  They've figured out the game, and are ushering in a grand new era of enlightenment just like they had in France, and not a moment too soon.

I haven't really kept up with the World Champion Royals lately, how has the enlightenment been going the last few years?

They were fast and distance runners those two seasons.  It's not a systematic approach. It was very good fortune. It all started with a six run comeback anyway. 

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

No, no, no.  Whomever wins the Series did it by careful planning and brilliant strategy.  They've figured out the game, and are ushering in a grand new era of enlightenment just like they had in France, and not a moment too soon.

I haven't really kept up with the World Champion Royals lately, how has the enlightenment been going the last few years?

The Royals are back to 100+ back to back losing seasons after losing all their stars to Free Agency.

Their minor league system in in shambles, and they cant even post a top 100 prospect.

Quote

Ultimately, this is the aftermath of mid-market success. It is a flash in the night—it is quick, bright and fleeting. The window of success is tight for teams outside of a large market to field a dominant team and even tighter for those teams to win a World Series title. Once the contracts expire and the requested salaries increase, that window is gone.

 

[weams]

 

[Redskins Rick]

9 minutes ago, weams said:

 

Correct, at the end of the day, you still have to perform.

The best season team, doesn't always win the WS.

Its whoever is playing the best ball at the time of the playoffs.

[esmd]

I guess 2012 through 2016 didn't happen?  Most wins in the AL over that stretch didn't occur????

Look, was it perfect?  No.  I would've preferred to see them mix in more high-.OBP players to be on base for when guys like Manny, Schoop, Jones, Trumbo, and Davis went yard, which would equal more runs, especially when things were obviously slipping in 2017 before the wheels fell off this year.

But to say that it didn't work just ignores the success the team had for 5 years, to include 3 playoff berths and an ALCS appearance.

[wildbillhiccup]

11 minutes ago, esmd said:

I guess 2012 through 2016 didn't happen?  Most wins in the AL over that stretch didn't occur????

Look, was it perfect?  No.  I would've preferred to see them mix in more high-.OBP players to be on base for when guys like Manny, Schoop, Jones, Trumbo, and Davis went yard, which would equal more runs, especially when things were obviously slipping in 2017 before the wheels fell off this year.

But to say that it didn't work just ignores the success the team had for 5 years, to include 3 playoff berths and an ALCS appearance.

Yes, it worked, but it's not an approach that lends itself to sustained success. The rebuild should focus on pitching, defense, speed and on base percentage. That way, the Orioles don't put themselves in a position (again) where they feel the need to waste  inordinate amount of money on a one dimensional home run hitter. 

[esmd]

Just now, wildbillhiccup said:

Yes, it worked, but it's not an approach that lends itself to sustained success. The rebuild should focus on pitching, defense, speed and on base percentage. That way, the Orioles don't put themselves in a position (again) where they feel the need to waste  inordinate amount of money on a one dimensional home run hitter. 

I don't disagree.  I think you can have a couple of those types in the lineup, maybe 3 or 4 (at most), but you needs guys that hit for average and have a high OBP as well.  Ya know, balance.   Good defense helps too.  It worked for a while, but it can all go south quickly, as we've seen first hand. 

[wildbillhiccup]

3 minutes ago, esmd said:

I don't disagree.  I think you can have a couple of those types in the lineup, maybe 3 or 4 (at most), but you needs guys that hit for average and have a high OBP as well.  Ya know, balance.   Good defense helps too.  It worked for a while, but it can all go south quickly, as we've seen first hand. 

I think it's a better strategy for teams that have deeper pockets. For teams that can just take on someone like Stanton or Martinez's salaries without blinking. . I think the Orioles would be better off following the business model of a small market teams. Build from within and focus on the things that are easier to control/predict. Just my two cents. 

[wildcard]

5 hours ago, esmd said:

I guess 2012 through 2016 didn't happen?  Most wins in the AL over that stretch didn't occur????

Look, was it perfect?  No.  I would've preferred to see them mix in more high-.OBP players to be on base for when guys like Manny, Schoop, Jones, Trumbo, and Davis went yard, which would equal more runs, especially when things were obviously slipping in 2017 before the wheels fell off this year.

But to say that it didn't work just ignores the success the team had for 5 years, to include 3 playoff berths and an ALCS appearance.

The O's won with a very good pen and good defense from 2012-2016.    The offense was middle of the road in spite of often leading the league in homers.    They would have been better with a blend of power and OBP but never achieved it.   The starters were good in 2016.  But the addition of Jimenez and Gallardo plus the fall of Tillman caught up to the team.

The fact the both Buck and Dan loved the homer in Camden Yard made them over emphasize power. That was made clear when other teams outscore them year after year.

[maybenxtyr]

Power has become cheaper over the years. I'm not discounting what they were able to accomplish, but just pointing out that they were utilizing the strategy that they were able to afford.

Pitching and OBP is going to be strengths that will have to be developed more in house rather than bought on the open market.

[Redskins Rick]

39 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

Power has become cheaper over the years. I'm not discounting what they were able to accomplish, but just pointing out that they were utilizing the strategy that they were able to afford.

Pitching and OBP is going to be strengths that will have to be developed more in house rather than bought on the open market.

They tried that, drafts have been pitcher heavy and it creates a void of position players to available to move up.

[Camden_yardbird]

I think their lack of adjustment to the decreasing price of power didn't work.  They were progenitors of taking undervalued power and making it work (Davis, Reynolds, Hardy, Trumbo, Jones to a lesser extent)  But then signed guys (Hardy, Davis, Trumbo) to market value (or above) deals for their power when they were in a group of depreciating assets across the league.

Now they are left with overpriced contracts that will hamper their development.  But to say that the love for the home run didn't help, was not paying attention to what they were able to accomplish.  I live in the Northeast, and I face enough Yankee and Sox fans who this season were ready to write a revisionist history and downplay the "long beleaguered dumpster fire Orioles" and forget that they were the best regular season team in the AL for many years.  We as Orioles fans dont need to perpetuate that line of thinking.

[LookitsPuck]

The problem with the all or nothing approach of homers and low OBP (because the two of them together is cheaply available) is that it doesn't age well and finding players that are strong *and* good defensively for cheap is very difficult. What happens if you go too far down that rabbit hole is you have a logjam of players that are essentially a bunch of DHs clogging up the roster flexibility and killing you defensively. And killing a team defensively that used to pride itself on defense in the early years means the starting pitching is going to take a hit.

And therein lies the rub. Duquette's strategy was cheap homers, defense be damned, no team speed and an above average/elite bullpen with average or below average starting pitching. That's a very delicate balance to maintain because if you're playing in ballparks not conducive to homers...your team just isn't dynamic enough to overcome the deficiency. Especially if the starting pitching sucks. You're not going to win many games where your team can barely eek out 1 or 2 solo homers if your starting pitching is giving up 3-5 runs day in and day out.