2014 Astros article tells what is going to happen with the O's and why

[weams]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Would you rather he be under contract or not right now?

I would love not to have him. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, weams said:

I would love not to have him. 

I would have loved the chance to draft Grenier in the second round.

[wildcard]

Under Luhnow and Elias Only (4) draft choice, (1) Latin signing,  (4 )free agents,  (10) player acquire by trade, (3) waiver claims

(3) players acquired before Luhnow and Elias

Draft choices under Luhnow and Elias 

Correa - 2012,  round 1, first selection

McCullers - 2012, round 1, 41st selection

Fisher - 2014, round 1, 37th selection

Bergman - 2015,  round 1, second selection

 

Latin players signed under Luhnow and Elias

Yurriel - 2016, signed out of Cuba at age 32

 

Free agents signed by Luhnow and Elias

Gregerson - December 12, 2014: Signed as a Free Agent with the Houston Astros.

Morton - November 16, 2016: Signed as a Free Agent with the Houston Astros.

Reddick - November 23, 2016: Signed as a Free Agent with the Houston Astros

Beltran -.December 5, 2016: Signed as a Free Agent with the Houston Astros.

 

Trades under Luhnow and Elias

Marwin Gonzalez -December 8, 2011: Traded by the Boston Red Sox to the Houston Astros for Marco Duarte (Luhnow first trade before Elias was hired)

 Musgrove - July 20, 2012: Traded by the Toronto Blue Jays with a player to be named later, Francisco Cordero, Ben Francisco, Carlos Perez, David Rollins and Asher Wojciechowski to the Houston Astros for David Carpenter, J.A. Happand Brandon Lyon. The Toronto Blue Jays sent Kevin Comer (minors) (August 16, 2012) to the Houston Astros to complete the trade.

Devenski - August 3, 2012: the Chicago White Sox sent Chris Devenski to the Houston Astros to complete an earlier deal made on July 21, 2012. July 21, 2012: The Chicago White Sox sent a player to be named later, Matt Heidenreich(minors) and Blair Walters (minors) to the Houston Astros for Brett Myers and cash.

Peacock - February 4, 2013: Traded by the Oakland Athletics with Chris Carter and Max Stassi to the Houston Astros for Jed Lowrie and Fernando Rodriguez Jr..

Marisnick - July 31, 2014: Traded by the Miami Marlins with Francis Martes, Colin Moran and 2015 competitive balance round A pick to the Houston Astros for Austin Wates (minors), Jarred Cosart and Enrique Hernandez.

Gattis - January 14, 2015: Traded by the Atlanta Braves with James Hoyt to the Houston Astros for Andrew Thurman (minors), Mike Foltynewicz and Rio Ruiz.

Fiers - July 30, 2015: Traded by the Milwaukee Brewers with Carlos Gomez and cash to the Houston Astros for Josh Hader, Adrian Houser, Brett Phillips and Domingo Santana.

Giles - December 12, 2015: Traded by the Philadelphia Phillies with Jonathan Arauz (minors) to the Houston Astros for Mark Appel (minors), Harold Arauz (minors), Tom Eshelman (minors), Brett Oberholtzer and Vince Velasquez.

McCann- November 17, 2016: Traded by the New York Yankees with cash to the Houston Astros for Albert Abreu (minors) and Jorge Guzman (minors)

Verlander - August 31, 2017: Traded by the Detroit Tigers with a player to be named later and cash to the Houston Astros for Daz Cameron (minors), Franklin Perez (minors) and Jake Rogers (minors). The Detroit Tigers sent Juan Ramirez(minors) (October 13, 2017) to the Houston Astros to complete the trade

 

Waiver Claims under Luhnow and Elias

McHugh - December 18, 2013: Selected off waivers by the Houston Astros from the Colorado Rockies.

Harris - November 3, 2014: Selected off waivers by the Houston Astros from the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Aoki - November 3, 2016: Selected off waivers by the Houston Astros from the Seattle Mariners.

..................................................................................................................................................................

Draft choices selected before Luhnow and Elias

Keuchel -  2009, round 7

Springer -  2011,  round 1 eleventh selection

 

Latin players signed before Luhnow and Elias

Altuve - 2007, Signed out of Venezuela 

 

[Moose Milligan]

Looks like they were good at creating their own luck.

[Diehard_O's_Fan]

Here is a good question. Whose minor league system was better when Mike first took over? The Orioles or Astros. Mike is inheriting some good players. The Orioles minor league system is far from terrible.

[PaulFolk]

32 minutes ago, Diehard_O's_Fan said:

Here is a good question. Whose minor league system was better when Mike first took over? The Orioles or Astros. Mike is inheriting some good players. The Orioles minor league system is far from terrible.

I attempted to tackle that question in a story for Baltimore Baseball a few weeks ago comparing the Astros and Orioles rebuilds under Elias: https://www.baltimorebaseball.com/2018/11/27/orioles-news-mike-elias-face-tougher-rebuilding-task-orioles-astros/

This was my assessment of the minor league systems.

Quote

It’s hard to remember now, with the Astros having produced many talented, homegrown players in recent years, but their farm system was in shambles when Elias first arrived in Houston. After the 2011 season, FanGraphs ranked Houston’s system as the fourth-worst in baseball. Just two Astros’ prospects made FanGraph’s top 100 list: first baseman Jonathan Singleton at No. 58 and outfielder George Springer at No. 70.

The Astros’ minor league depth improved almost immediately under the new regime. With the first overall pick of the 2012 amateur draft, they selected 17-year-old shortstop Carlos Correa — largely on the suggestion of Elias, who had scouted him in Puerto Rico. Correa, of course, developed into a star, and kicked off a renaissance for Houston’s farm. By the start of 2015, the Astros’ system was rated sixth-best in MLB by FanGraphs, and by 2016, it was second.

Elias will have similar heavy lifting to do with the Orioles. Despite the club’s flurry of sell-off trades in 2018 under previous executive vice president Dan Duquette, which landed the club 15 new players, the Orioles’ minor league system is still considered one of the weaker groups in baseball. FanGraphs rated them No. 28, ahead of only the Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners.

Although the Orioles have a few promising prospects — headlined by outfielder Yusniel Diaz (ranked No. 52 among MLB Pipeline’s top 100) and third baseman Ryan Mountcastle (No. 63) — their system is lacking in frontline talent. Few pundits anticipate the Orioles’ top prospects to emerge as future stars, but rather as solid regulars or complementary players.

The Orioles, like the Astros years before, have a chance to provide a huge jolt to their farm system next summer, when they hold the No. 1 pick in the 2019 draft. Time will tell whether Elias can strike gold again as he did with Correa.

Advantage: Orioles

 

[Frobby]

The Marwin Gonzalez transaction was Luhnow’s first, before Elias was hired.  

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The Marwin Gonzalez transaction was Luhnow’s first, before Elias was hired.  

Thanks

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Diehard_O's_Fan said:

Here is a good question. Whose minor league system was better when Mike first took over? The Orioles or Astros. Mike is inheriting some good players. The Orioles minor league system is far from terrible.

The Astro have in the minors in 2011 Springer, and Kuechel.    SP Foltynewicz who was traded to the Braves for Gattis, Dodgers CF Enrique Hernandez who was traded for Marisnick, and RF Domingo Santana who was traded for Fiers had a good 2017 for the Brewers and was just traded to the Mariners.

The O's have six standout minor leaguer right now in DL Hall, Grayson Rodriguez, Yusniel Diaz, Austin Hays, Dean Kremer and Ryan Mountcastle.   

I would say the 2011 Astros farm system and the 2018 O's farm system are pretty equal.

[Diehard_O's_Fan]

Thanks for the insight guys. I really appreciate it. I feel like the Orioles minor league system is underrated. Hopefully the Orioles top minor league prospects will prove me right.

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, wildcard said:

The Astro have in the minors in 2011 Springer, and Kuechel.    SP Foltynewicz who was traded to the Braves for Gattis, Dodgers CF Enrique Hernandez who was traded for Marisnick, and RF Domingo Santana who was traded for Fiers had a good 2017 for the Brewers and was just traded to the Mariners.

The O's have six standout minor leaguer right now in DL Hall, Grayson Rodriguez, Yusniel Diaz, Austin Hays, Dean Kremer and Ryan Mountcastle.   

I would say the 2011 Astros farm system and the 2018 O's farm system are pretty equal.

It’s really hard to know.    Springer and Keuchel are outstanding players — Keuchel was not in the Astros’ top 10 prospects on a lot of lists as of the end of 2011.     The guy considered their top prospect at the time, Jonathan Singer, turned out to be nothing significant.   

The Astros did have some other guys in their system you didn’t mention, like Jonathan Villar and Jared Cosart.

And, as you noted, they already had Altuve, who debuted in 2011.   He was not in their MiL system but was a key piece of their future.   I can’t say I see his equivalent on our major league roster today.  

[Aglets]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

It’s really hard to know.    Springer and Keuchel are outstanding players — Keuchel was not in the Astros’ top 10 prospects on a lot of lists as of the end of 2011.     The guy considered their top prospect at the time, Jonathan Singer, turned out to be nothing significant.   

The Astros did have some other guys in their system you didn’t mention, like Jonathan Villar and Jared Cosart.

And, as you noted, they already had Altuve, who debuted in 2011.   He was not in their MiL system but was a key piece of their future.   I can’t say I see his equivalent on our major league roster today.  

Well, Elias did say that Trey Mancini was part of our core moving forward...................... ;).  And I think he mentioned Mullins as well?

[Moose Milligan]

10 hours ago, Diehard_O's_Fan said:

The Orioles minor league system is far from terrible.

No it's not.  It's actually pretty terrible, has been for quite some time.  

Let me know when they start producing players that weren't a top 5 pick.  

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

No it's not.  It's actually pretty terrible, has been for quite some time.  

Let me know when they start producing players that weren't a top 5 pick.  

I don’t think our system is terrible right now.    The depth is actually pretty decent, it just lacks star power close to the majors.    

I think the most underrated potential value of the Elias/Mejdal hires will be changes in how we develop the players already in our system.    It will be interesting to see whether some players who aren’t that highly regarded today make significant progress under the new regime.   We’ll see.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think our system is terrible right now.    The depth is actually pretty decent, it just lacks star power close to the majors.    

I think the most underrated potential value of the Elias/Mejdal hires will be changes in how we develop the players already in our system.    It will be interesting to see whether some players who aren’t that highly regarded today make significant progress under the new regime.   We’ll see.

I understand where you're coming from, inclined to agree.  However when it comes to the O's system I've been conditioned to expect the worst.  

The beatings will continue until morale improves, etc.