New Rankings with Rule 5 guys

[Can_of_corn]

5 hours ago, Rene88 said:

We all know how you feel on the subject:)

Hey now, someone may have joined in the last couple of weeks.

[Luke-OH]

Here is my updated top 50 with the Rule 5 picks, separated by tiers. With the new twins, I'm not fully fleshing it out into a big article this year, my thoughts on most of the players are already known here, but feel free to ask any questions about it in this thread. I'll do a brief write-up on some of the more unknown guys if requested. 

 

1. Ryan Mountcastle 55

2. Yusniel Diaz 55

3. DL Hall 55

4. Grayson Rodriguez 55

 

5. Austin Hays 50

6. Dean Kremer 50

7. Ryan McKenna 50

8. Keegan Akin 50

9. Luis Ortiz 50

10. Brenan Hanifee 50

11. Zac Lowther 50

12. Dillon Tate 50

13. Jean Carlos Encarnacion 50

 

14. Hunter Harvey 45

15. Rylan Bannon 45

16. DJ Stewart 45

17. Zach Pop 45

18. Blaine Knight 45

19. Jean Carmona 45

20. Adam Hall 45

21. Brett Cumberland 45

 

22. Richie Martin 40

23. Cadyn Grenier 40

24. Drew Jackson 40

24. Cody Carroll 40

25. Drew Rom 40

26. Branden Kline 40

27. Alex Wells 40

28. Michael Baumann 40

29. Bruce Zimmermann 40

30. Matthias Dietz 40

31. Lamar Sparks 40

32. Cameron Bishop 40

33. Trevor Craport 40

34. John Means 40

35. Josh Rogers 40

36. Evan Phillips 40

37. JC Escarra 40

38. Jomar Reyes 40

39. Zach Muckenhirn 40

40. Cody Sedlock 40

41. Robert Neustrom 40

42. Breyvic Valera 40

43. Luis Gonzalez 40

44. Ryan Conroy 40

45. Steve Wilkerson 40

 

46. Jake Zebron 35

47. Mason McCoy 35

48. Martin Cervenka 35

49.  Nick Vespi 35

50. Seamus Curran 35

 

Other 35s considered: Gray Fenter, Yeancarlos Lleras, Lucas Long, Brian Gonzalez, Zach Jarrett, Luis Perez, Leonardo Rodriguez, Diogenes Almengo, Branden Becker, TJ Nichting, Jake Ring, Cody Roberts, Nick Horvath, Doran Turchin, Brandon Bonilla, JJ Montgomery, Yelin Rodriguez, Kevin Magee, Chris Lee, Christian Alvarado, Ofelky Peralta, Ademar Rifaela, Preston Palmeiro, Chris Clare

 

Graduates:

 

Cedric Mullins

Austin Wynns

Anthony Santander

Pedro Araujo

David Hess

Chance Sisco

Paul Fry

Jimmy Yacabonis

Yefry Ramirez 

 

[now]

Awesome, thanks for sharing that. You're right, it's quite different from MLB Pipeline after the top 5. 

Kremer, for instance, glad to see him up there.

I'm pulling for Harvey (14) to make the biggest jump (or most impactful). Also, wondering about forgotten man Sedlock (39)... damaged goods?

[Luke-OH]

13 minutes ago, now said:

Awesome, thanks for sharing that. You're right, it's quite different from MLB Pipeline after the top 5. 

 Kremer, for instance, glad to see him up there.

I'm pulling for Harvey (14) to make the biggest jump (or most impactful). Also, wondering about forgotten man Sedlock (39)... damaged goods?

Sedlock's stuff has been mostly 88-91 FB with below average command since the beginning of 2017. The breaking balls (curve and slider) still flash but are inconsistent. The fastball gets hammered and I'd put a 40 on it in it's current state. There is a chance the stuff could come back, that's basically why he's still on the list at all. 

Harvey if healthy is much higher, but I think the amount of time he's missed has ticketed him for a bullpen role, so that limits the upside, plus there is the risk he never gets healthy. 

[now]

9 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Sedlock's stuff has been mostly 88-91 FB with below average command since the beginning of 2017. The breaking balls (curve and slider) still flash but are inconsistent. The fastball gets hammered and I'd put a 40 on it in it's current state. There is a chance the stuff could come back, that's basically why he's still on the list at all. 

Harvey if healthy is much higher, but I think the amount of time he's missed has ticketed him for a bullpen role, so that limits the upside, plus there is the risk he never gets healthy. 

Thx for the update. Sorry to hear all that. The perils of picking pitchers #1! At least we have other options to turn to. Deep depth! 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

1. Ryan Mountcastle 55 (1,3)

2. Yusniel Diaz 55 (2,5)

3. DL Hall 55 (3,1)

4. Grayson Rodriguez 55 (7,2)

 

5. Austin Hays 50 (4,6)

6. Dean Kremer 50 (13,4)

7. Ryan McKenna 50 (8,13)

8. Keegan Akin 50 (10,11)

9. Luis Ortiz 50 (5,12)

10. Brenan Hanifee 50 (12,10)

11. Zac Lowther 50 (14,8)

12. Dillon Tate 50 (9,17)

13. Jean Carlos Encarnacion 50 (11,22)

 

14. Hunter Harvey 45 (6,7)

15. Rylan Bannon 45 (19,18)

16. DJ Stewart 45 (15,24)

17. Zach Pop 45 (28,16)

18. Blaine Knight 45 (17,9)

19. Jean Carmona 45 (16,25)

20. Adam Hall 45 (20,19)

21. Brett Cumberland 45 (21,27)

 

22. Richie Martin 40

23. Cadyn Grenier 40 (23,23)

24. Drew Jackson 40

24. Cody Carroll 40 (18, 26)

25. Drew Rom 40 (42,15)

26. Branden Kline 40 (32,14)

27. Alex Wells 40 (26,21)

28. Bruce Zimmermann 40 (25,—)

29. Matthias Dietz 40 (24,30)

30. Lamar Sparks 40 (29,—)

31. Cameron Bishop 40 (27,29)

32. Trevor Craport 40 (40,—)

33. John Means 40 (36,28)

34. Josh Rogers 40 (37,—)

35. Evan Phillips 40 (34,—)

36. JC Escarra 40 (—,—)

37. Jomar Reyes 40 (33,—)

38. Zach Muckenhirn 40 (31,—)

39. Cody Sedlock 40 (30,—)

40. Robert Neustrom 40 (—,—)

41. Breyvic Valera 40 (38,—)

42. Luis Gonzalez 40 (44,—)

43. Ryan Conroy 40 (—,—)

44. Steve Wilkerson 40 (—,—)

 

45. Jake Zebron 35 (—,—)

46. Mason McCoy 35 (—,—)

47. Martin Cervenka 35 (—,—)

48. Nick Vespi 35 (36,—)

49. Seamus Curran 35 (40,—)

50. Yeancarlos Lleras 35 (45,—)

 

Other 35s considered, Lucas Long, Brian Gonzalez, Zach Jarrett, Luis Perez, Leonardo Rodriguez, Diogenes Almengo, Branden Becker, TJ Nichting, Jake Ring, Cody Roberts, Nick Horvath, Doran Turchin, Brandon Bonilla, JJ Montgomery, Yelin Rodriguez, Kevin Magee, Chris Lee, Christian Alvarado, Ofelky Peralta, Ademar Rifaela, Preston Palmeiro, Chris Clare

 

Graduates:

 

Cedric Mullins

Austin Wynns

Anthony Santander

Pedro Araujo

David Hess

Chance Sisco

Paul Fry

Jimmy Yacabonis

 

So, for fun I’ve added in parentheses (1) your mid-season rating (adjusted for the players who graduated, so e.g. Ortiz who was no. 6 on your midseason list gets moved to 5 because Mullins graduated), and (2) the official OH list, which as I understand it is really Tony’s list after considering your opinions along with others in the organization as well as his own views.   

I think your list above accidentally omits Baumann (who was 22nd on your midseason list as adjusted and 20th on the OH list).    Also, your list of graduates omits Yefri Ramirez, who was 35th on your midseason list.

I have some questions about some of the players who were moved significantly from where they were on your midseason list, and I’d be curious to hear a little about the guys towards the bottom who are new to the list and hence you didn’t write them up before (though in some cases you have posted about them in various threads).    I’ll make another post later picking out the players about whom I have questions, though it’s pretty obvious who they are.   

[Rene88]

Lots of good info in this thread, thanks. What in the world happened to Sedlock? I guess I missed what happened with him to fall from grace.

[Luke-OH]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

So, for fun I’ve added in parentheses (1) your mid-season rating (adjusted for the players who graduated, so e.g. Ortiz who was no. 6 on your midseason list gets moved to 5 because Mullins graduated), and (2) the official OH list, which as I understand it is really Tony’s list after considering your opinions along with others in the organization as well as his own views.   

I think your list above accidentally omits Baumann (who was 22nd on your midseason list as adjusted and 20th on the OH list).    Also, your list of graduates omits Yefri Ramirez, who was 35th on your midseason list.

I have some questions about some of the players who were moved significantly from where they were on your midseason list, and I’d be curious to hear a little about the guys towards the bottom who are new to the list and hence you didn’t write them up before (though in some cases you have posted about them in various threads).    I’ll make another post later picking out the players about whom I have questions, though it’s pretty obvious who they are.   

Oops on Ramirez and Baumann. I actually was moving Baumann down after watching a couple of his starts yesterday, so I deleted his name with the intention of adding it later but apparently I never got around to it. I just edited it to correct the mistakes, I appreciate you noticing that. I also forgot to include Gray Fenter in others considered. 

I'll tackle the movers first. In bold are the players who I changed their grade. 

Dropped

Nick Vespi - a personal favorite and he has a good repertoire of pitches, but the importance of velocity is really increasing in today's game and his velocity hasn't ticked up at all with his move to the bullpen. He's 88-91 with cut in relief.  I think the pitch mix will play, but realistically it's a prove it all the way up kind of deal.

Cody Sedlock - really no explanation needed here, velocity and overall stuff is down, can't stay healthy, will still show a good breaking ball from time to time, but the fastball is ridiculously hittable.

Zach Muckenhirn - struggled in AA, command wavered, still an interesting LH relief prospect.

Cameron Bishop - Just calibrated down in response to increased importance of velocity

Cody Carroll - failed his initial MLB trial, slider quality and command backed up, was throwing his changeup more than in the minors and it's not a good pitch.

Matthias Dietz - just his poor end to the season

Jean Carmona - haven't seen much quality game video and was influenced by what I heard from Tony.

Michael Baumann - Hasn't improved, just don't see a starter and it's unknown what the velocity will look like in the pen, but if it's not plus, the profile doesn't look particularly interesting.

Hunter Harvey - Just giving up the ghost of him being a starter, as a starter he was a potential 55 or 60 and the injury risk brought it down to a 50, as a reliever he's a potential 50, so with risk considered, I dropped him to a 45.

Luis Ortiz - just him getting another lower body injury, increases the chances of him ending up in the pen. 

Dillon Tate - more that I moved others up than moved him down, the Orioles were clearly doing something with him developmental after the trade so I'm not going to knock him for that yet. 

Rose

Grayson Rodriguez - Curveball was a grade better in instructs video than in pre-draft video.

Zac Lowther - felt better about the ability of his stuff to play at a higher level after additional thought and review

Dean Kremer - saw enough with the changeup to lower the relief risk significantly, FB/CB combo very good.

Zach Pop - The stuff is really good and it was immediately effective against AA bats.

Branden Kline - influenced by Tony's thoughts

Trevor Craport - felt more comfortable with his defense after further video review, also considered the hitting environment in Delmarva.

Drew Rom - hadn't seen anything but pre-draft video, but given more confidence by what Tony had to say about him.

 

 

 

 

 

[Luke-OH]

17 minutes ago, Rene88 said:

Lots of good info in this thread, thanks. What in the world happened to Sedlock? I guess I missed what happened with him to fall from grace.

Missed a bunch of time with elbow and shoulder issues, arm speed and velocity took a major step back. Has been that way for two full seasons now. 

[Frobby]

Thanks for the explanations, Luke. You pretty much answered any questions I would have had.   And, your reasons all make sense to me.   

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Thanks for the explanations, Luke. You pretty much answered any questions I would have had.   And, your reasons all make sense to me.   

Here are little blurbs on some of the new guys on the list.

Richie Martin and Drew Jackson - see my Rule 5 Preference List

JC Escarra - athletic 1B, above average defense there, probably could handle the COF positions as well. Very old for the level in 2018, but shows an efficient, leveraged swing and good feel for the barrel with above average power. Will have to see how he handles advanced pitching and there isn't much margin for error for 1B without huge power.

Robert Neustrom - COF, chance to be an average defender, plus LH raw power, will need to tighten up the swing to hit advanced pitching and get to the power in-game.

Ryan Conroy - Was 90-92 as a starter at Elon, not sure what his velocity is in relief, but it plays, misses bats on the plate. Live arm, athletic guy, some projection left in the body. Slider is the best pitch, it flashes, could be plus eventually. 

Jake Zebron - HS guy, up to 95-96 with the FB, projectable frame, also throws a curveball and throws strikes. Not sure the quality of the CB or if there are other offspeed pitches, but there's enough for a speculative 35.

Mason McCoy - The more I watch him, the defense stands out, he's not a toolsy defender, doesn't make the spectacular play, but can make the tough play consistently at 2B and SS. The bat is pretty light, but I could see a Steve Wilkerson who can handle SS eventually and that would be a useful player.

Martin Cervenka - has been slow to develop, the Indians gave up on him, but didn't have much competition as an amateur so it makes sense that he'd develop late. Shed the org player label in 2018. The old player development regime really liked him. He adjusted his swing and approach this year and started getting to his above average raw power in game by pulling the ball more and getting it into the air. The big question is whether the hit tool is capable of making the jump to MLB, or if it's just a AAA bat. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Missed a bunch of time with elbow and shoulder issues, arm speed and velocity took a major step back. Has been that way for two full seasons now. 

As to the risers, you didn’t mention Zach Pop, who jumped from 28th (40 grade) to 17th (45).   Anything in particular cause the jump?   Obviously he performed well after the trade.  

[Luke-OH]

56 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As to the risers, you didn’t mention Zach Pop, who jumped from 28th (40 grade) to 17th (45).   Anything in particular cause the jump?   Obviously he performed well after the trade.  

Thanks, I really like Pop.

He's 96-98 regularly with a two seam FB with plus armside run from a deceptive low slot. The slider flashes plus. He's near impossible to barrel up, he'd likely be able to hold his own in a MLB bullpen now and has late inning upside if he can tighten up the command. 

Edit: the big thing is that his stuff immediately played against AA bats. He's not polished, he could sequence better and improve his command. But it didn't matter, while the K to BB wasn't anything stellar, the batted ball profile was as good as anyone in the minors. 

[weams]

11 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Hey now, someone may have joined in the last couple of weeks.

Several folks did. And they weren't Russian this time. 

[Moose Milligan]

3 hours ago, Rene88 said:

Lots of good info in this thread, thanks. What in the world happened to Sedlock? I guess I missed what happened with him to fall from grace.

I don't think Sedlock ever fell from anywhere.  He's been at the bottom since he laced em up.  I understand the draft is a huge crap shoot out of the first few picks and Sedlock was picked later in the first round but I don't think that dude is ever gonna see the bigs.