Rank the #1 Draft Disappointments

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

What’s depressing about this thread is there’s 10 choices out of the last 16 no. 1 picks, and you could have gone back even further.     Then look at the six that weren’t included:

2003 Markakis

2005 Brandon Snyder - could have been included

2010 Machado

2015 Stewart - too soon to tell

2017 Hall - too soon to tell

2018 Rodriguez - too soon to tell.

Basically, you’ve got two guys who fully met expectations and a few others where we don’t know yet how they’ll turn out.

 

 

 

 

I don't think it is too soon to tell on Stewart, expectations were low and he's made the majors.  That in itself is exceeding some folks' expectations.

 

[Palmoripken]

Always felt bad Snyder didn’t pan out. We’re the same age and his Dad ran the Northern Virginia baseball academy I attended as a kid in Chantilly. This year will be interesting since through my youngest brother a senior in HS I know some of the Western Loudoun prospects but I think those guys are going to take the college scholarships.

[TonySoprano]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Billy Rowell for me. Tim Linecum was available and I had written up a report on him and provided it to my Area Scout when I was out in Hawaii. I said he was the best amateur pitcher I had ever seen personally and only Josh Beckett was better in my minor league scouting.

I respect the hell out of Joe Jordan, but missing on Lincecum for Rowell was painful.

One slot below Lincecum (and two below Rowell) is some guy named Scherzer, who has a career WAR nearly 3X that of Lincecum, and one more Cy Young on his résumé.  The real question is had the Orioles drafted either of them, would they have developed through the Orioles system to be who they are today?

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think it is too soon to tell on Stewart, expectations were low and he's made the majors.  That in itself is exceeding some folks' expectations.

 

Well, he’s exceeded webbrick2010’s.       I didn’t have huge expectations, but I did expect him to reach the majors and stick for a while.  We’ll see if he does the latter.   

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, AnythingO's said:

Don't forget TTTP.

Hey, saving 40 stolen bases is almost as good as hitting a few homers.

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Palmoripken said:

Always felt bad Snyder didn’t pan out. We’re the same age and his Dad ran the Northern Virginia baseball academy I attended as a kid in Chantilly. This year will be interesting since through my youngest brother a senior in HS I know some of the Western Loudoun prospects but I think those guys are going to take the college scholarships.

I took lessons from Brian Snyder in the late 90s.  Great guy, was happy that his kid got picked in the first round.  

[Palmoripken]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I took lessons from Brian Snyder in the late 90s.  Great guy, was happy that his kid got picked in the first round.  

Yeah I didn’t immediately make the connection at first but Brian was a great instructor. The Academy was a neat thing. Brandon went to Westfield HS. Always killed us at Herndon except for basketball since we had Scottie Reynolds. In baseball we did have Brandon Guyer who was a year ahead of me and has had a nice little career with first Tampa and then Cleveland. 

[now]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

What’s depressing about this thread is there’s 10 choices out of the last 16 no. 1 picks, and you could have gone back even further.     Then look at the six that weren’t included:

2003 Markakis

2005 Brandon Snyder - could have been included

2010 Machado

2015 Stewart - too soon to tell

2017 Hall - too soon to tell

2018 Rodriguez - too soon to tell.

Basically, you’ve got two guys who fully met expectations and a few others where we don’t know yet how they’ll turn out.

 

 

 

 

True, Snyder could have been included. As for going back further, I'm glad the poll limit was 10, because to get into 1999 territory would have been really depressing. Also, I did include Gausman but he got no votes for disappointing. Would you add him to the "two guys who fully met expectations"?

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, now said:

True, Snyder could have been included. As for going back further, I'm glad the poll limit was 10, because to get into 1999 territory would have been really depressing. Also, I did include Gausman but he got no votes for disappointing. Would you add him to the "two guys who fully met expectations"?

I consider Gausman a minor disappointment, but he’s the least disappointing person on the list and may prove over time that he’s not a disappointment at all.   Truth is, he already ranks 15th in WAR among all no. 4 picks.   So objectively, he’s not really a disappointment.    Subjectively, I’m always hoping for a no. 4 pick to be a TOR pitcher, and he’s not that, which is why I say he’s a minor disappointment.   

Wieters, by the way, ranks 9th among all no. 5 picks in WAR.   Because he was more hyped than Gausman (even on draft day, though much of Wieters’ hype came later),  I’d still say he’s more disappointing than Gausman, who has more prime years remaining to move up the ladder.    But neither is really a major disappointment.  

[Moose Milligan]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I consider Gausman a minor disappointment, but he’s the least disappointing person on the list and may prove over time that he’s not a disappointment at all.   Truth is, he already ranks 15th in WAR among all no. 4 picks.   So objectively, he’s not really a disappointment.    Subjectively, I’m always hoping for a no. 4 pick to be a TOR pitcher, and he’s not that, which is why I say he’s a minor disappointment.   

Wieters, by the way, ranks 9th among all no. 5 picks in WAR.   Because he was more hyped than Gausman (even on draft day, though much of Wieters’ hype came later),  I’d still say he’s more disappointing than Gausman, who has more prime years remaining to move up the ladder.    But neither is really a major disappointment.  

Sorry Frobby, I gotta disagree.  I wouldn't call Gausman a bust but he was way more disappointing than Wieters.  You're right, there was more hype around Wieters but still.  I'd much rather take a Wieters career over Gausman's.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Sorry Frobby, I gotta disagree.  I wouldn't call Gausman a bust but he was way more disappointing than Wieters.  You're right, there was more hype around Wieters but still.  I'd much rather take a Wieters career over Gausman's.

Except no QO.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Sorry Frobby, I gotta disagree.  I wouldn't call Gausman a bust but he was way more disappointing than Wieters.  You're right, there was more hype around Wieters but still.  I'd much rather take a Wieters career over Gausman's.

I could see it either way.   I’m factoring in that Gausman is five years younger than Wieters and has more time left to accomplish things, though it won’t be for the Orioles.   

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Frobby said:

I could see it either way.   I’m factoring in that Gausman is five years younger than Wieters and has more time left to accomplish things, though it won’t be for the Orioles.   

Well I don't think he'd have accomplished anything here.  Of course if we're talking about who we'd rather have today, I'd take Gausman.  Wouldn't be thrilled about it, but it's the logical choice.  

But if we could draft a guy who's career would mirror either one, I'm taking the Wieters clone all day.

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Except no QO.

In hindsight, I don’t regret the QO to Wieters.     We made the playoffs that year and might not have without Wieters.

[BarclaySouthway]

Bundy is sort of disappointing compared to some of the talent on the board that year.  Rendon, Lindor, Baez, Springer, Jose Fernandez.   You couldn't swing a dead cat without hitting an all-star in that draft.   I realize in the history of #4 picks, he's about average, but he's not going to catch up to many of his peers.