Analytics question...

[weams]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think any data existed that predicted his precipitous offensive decline.

And I'd still rather have his contract than Davis'.

I think his defense is/was overvalued by some algorithms.

[Bmorebirds24]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think any data existed that predicted his precipitous offensive decline.

And I'd still rather have his contract than Davis'.

That has to be the worst contract in the history of Baltimore sports. I still get angry when I watch him play and think about the deal he got. 

 

Btw posting from my phone and isn’t bad at all. You guys will be hearing from me much more. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, weams said:

I think his defense is/was overvalued by some algorithms.

OK.

His defense hasn't been the problem.

 

 

[weams]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

OK.

His defense hasn't been the problem.

 

 

No. He's been fine in the field. I think it did not bring as much value to the brands of WAR that were used to offset the plate issues. 

[weams]

7 minutes ago, Bmorebirds24 said:

That has to be the worst contract in the history of Baltimore sports. I still get angry when I watch him play and think about the deal he got. 

 

Btw posting from my phone and isn’t bad at all. You guys will be hearing from me much more. 

Glad you like it. Tony and staff did a real good job with that in the last board rebuild. 

[foxfield]

16 minutes ago, weams said:

And not getting tricked by the packaging of multiple statistics (including  evolving variable defensive numbers) into a macro number. Like the Cubs did with Heyward.

I think it is more a case of reading data instead of trying to make the data tell you something you want to hear.  This is really where mistakes are frequently made.  

15 minutes ago, Bmorebirds24 said:

I was hoping he'd do us and himself a favor and retire.  He is brutal to watch.  I must say the new hires have me excited and while there is bound to be growing pains I am excited to watch this team come together in the coming years.  I know I am reaching but I think this team can win 60 games and be better than the team we watched last year.

I love this post.  It's brutally honest and completely catches the essence of the Orioles as the first season of the climb begins.  The two most important reaches for us as fans is that if ONLY Chris could retire and if we can only lose 100 games.  It's not sexy, but its spot on.
Rep to you sir!

[weams]

2 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I think it is more a case of reading data instead of trying to make the data tell you something you want to hear.  This is really where mistakes are frequently made.  

I love this post.  It's brutally honest and completely catches the essence of the Orioles as the first season of the climb begins.  The two most important reaches for us as fans is that if ONLY Chris could retire and if we can only lose 100 games.  It's not sexy, but its spot on.
Rep to you sir!

I liked it as well!

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, weams said:

No. He's been fine in the field. I think it did not bring as much value to the brands of WAR that were used to offset the plate issues. 

I think that if he was putting up an 112 OPS+ as a Cub no one would be talking about his contract.

[Bmorebirds24]

10 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I think it is more a case of reading data instead of trying to make the data tell you something you want to hear.  This is really where mistakes are frequently made.  

I love this post.  It's brutally honest and completely catches the essence of the Orioles as the first season of the climb begins.  The two most important reaches for us as fans is that if ONLY Chris could retire and if we can only lose 100 games.  It's not sexy, but its spot on.
Rep to you sir!

In the past it was hard to get excited (prior to the recent years of winning) because we never knew the teams direction or plan or if they even ever had one? 

Mike Elias seems like he gets it and wants it done his way and he has a vision. Listening to him talk makes me ready to cheer for this team even harder than I’ve done. Another thing that is exciting is that everyone seems to be on board with the plan. I really like where this ship is going. 

[scOtt]

2 hours ago, weams said:

Chris Davis can't be fixed by analytics andy more than Steve Sax could be fixed by staring at goats. If he does not seing it is a strik. If he does swing it is one the wrong plain and not quick enough.

Think of him as a guess hitter who had a neural path interruption. It's not coming back. What he could do is swings and lifts so much that he bleeds and breaks down  Because that is the only thing that got him where he is in the first place.

Well... if Sig could find some data that a better swing plane could fix? Launch angle these days. Could let him know more about what pitchers are trying to do when they're in an extreme shift.

Those things seem like honing a cylinder bore in an engine though, when it's already thrown a rod thru the block, thru the fender and hit the car next to it. Unfixable.

[Luke-OH]

3 hours ago, Bmorebirds24 said:

Frequent reader but don't post much... 

So I have heard that it will take the Orioles awhile to catch up in the analytics department.  I have some questions about that because I do not fully understand things about the whole analytics part.  What is it exactly?  My understanding is it's just numbers and data on players that can help put players in a better position to succeed?  Is it that hard to get all the data or is there more to it that I don't see yet?  Hopefully this makes sense.

 

Here's an example.  Chris Davis is obviously a mess at the plate.  ME has said that he is going to follow Davis this off season and see what he can do to help Davis out.  How would analytics help him at all?  To me what would help is him actually working all off season to fix his swing and whatever seems to be going on in his head.  Maybe I am just negative about Davis because I don't believe he can be fixed but just trying to learn more about the analytics part of the game now.

First, the Davis thing I think is just something he has to say. I don’t think there is a magic bullet, the bat speed is just decreasing along with overall athleticism, aging poorly.

But back to the initial question, being a modern Front Office that uses analytics means a lot of different things. Every team does things a little different but here are some types of data analysis that teams use. 

1. Creating a forward looking player projection system, basically a home cooked WAR recipe with aging curves to project out multiple years. The data that goes into this model likely varies from team to team, but I’d guess it’s similar to fWAR with proprietary defensive calculations and more intensive batted ball data for hitters with expected production based on exit velocity and other variables. For pitchers, spin rate, velocity, and exit velocity allowed are likely baked in.

2. A model for assessing amateur players, the stats carry less weight for college players and little to no weight for HS players. So the inputs include data from human scouts, velocity, spin rate, exit velocity, height, weight, and probably a couple other metrics teams have cooked up.

3. Data reports in an easily digestible format to help with in game strategy. Pitcher/Hitter tendencies to help optimize defensive positioning, pitch selection, batter strategy, baserunning, etc.

4. A data-driven player development strategy and easily digestible suite of data for minor league coaches and players. 

 

[Catch 8]

There is so much innovation to be made and work to be done in the field of analytics in general, not just as it pertains to baseball.  

Hire all the minds.  (Hire me)

[Luke-OH]

13 minutes ago, Catch 8 said:

There is so much innovation to be made and work to be done in the field of analytics in general, not just as it pertains to baseball.  

Hire all the minds.  (Hire me)

Do research, write it up, and publish it. If it's good enough, teams will be interested. 

[Cumberbundy]

On 12/28/2018 at 7:52 PM, Bmorebirds24 said:

Frequent reader but don't post much... 

So I have heard that it will take the Orioles awhile to catch up in the analytics department.  I have some questions about that because I do not fully understand things about the whole analytics part.  What is it exactly?  My understanding is it's just numbers and data on players that can help put players in a better position to succeed?  Is it that hard to get all the data or is there more to it that I don't see yet?  Hopefully this makes sense.

 

Here's an example.  Chris Davis is obviously a mess at the plate.  ME has said that he is going to follow Davis this off season and see what he can do to help Davis out.  How would analytics help him at all?  To me what would help is him actually working all off season to fix his swing and whatever seems to be going on in his head.  Maybe I am just negative about Davis because I don't believe he can be fixed but just trying to learn more about the analytics part of the game now.

Analytics attempt to tell you why things happen - when you accurately diagnose causation, you can begin to work on targeted solutions rather than taking a macro approach.

 

[weams]

Big Ol' Bear Fight