Elias' rebuild is going to be centered around high draft picks and player development

[DrungoHazewood]

36 minutes ago, Es4M11 said:

No argument here. What I was getting at is that I believe there is still a more knowledgeable segment of the fan base that has not come all the way back yet, for various reasons. I think once the club starts getting out of it's own way and making the right baseball moves on a consistent basis and puts a more exciting, better balanced product on the field then we will start to see those fans come back on a more nightly basis. I'm one of those fans, and I have quite a few friends in my friend group who feel the same way. The last two years I went to two games total. I normally would go to 15 or so a year.

I like the direction things are heading, and I am planning on being back at the Yard much more this coming year.

Holy crap, you just made me realize that I didn't go to a single professional sporting event in 2018.  I have access to the occasional free O's box seat, but didn't use it because who wants to drive two hours each way to see a 47-win team.  I used to have DC United season tickets, but dropped those and didn't make a single game at the new Audi field.  I haven't been to a Virginia Tech game in years.  Didn't make it to a Blue Crabs game, either, I don't think.

I think that's the first time I can say that since 1978.

[Frobby]

38 minutes ago, Es4M11 said:

Thanks! I intentionally left that it there. I did so because being the first year for the Nats, in my estimation they had not yet poached many Orioles season ticket holders.

OK, fair enough.   Attendance dropped by almost 500,000 the next season, but I don’t think that was due to the Nats, whose attendance also dropped significantly.   It was more due to disillusionment with the O’s falling apart in the last two months of 2005 and the sting of Raffygate and its fallout.    

[TonySoprano]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

OK, fair enough.   Attendance dropped by almost 500,000 the next season, but I don’t think that was due to the Nats, whose attendance also dropped significantly.   It was more due to disillusionment with the O’s falling apart in the last two months of 2005 and the sting of Raffygate and its fallout.    

One way to know it wasn't the Nats was to look at their attendance in year 2, a drop of 578,000 (-21%).  Those missing O's fans didn't switch to the Nats.

[Redskins Rick]

6 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

One way to know it wasn't the Nats was to look at their attendance in year 2, a drop of 578,000 (-21%).  Those missing O's fans didn't switch to the Nats.

Most teams in the MLB suffered a reduction in paid attendance, including some with winning records, and its not just MLB, but other sports as well, the entertainment market is getting saturated.

[atomic]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think they need to be very careful about doing things with the roster to keep fans engaged that aren't going to have a positive impact on wins beyond 80.  I think a large part of the reason that the 1998-2011 Orioles took so long to dig themselves out of their hole was that they devoted $20-40M a year in resources to payroll for wins 60-75, instead of pouring that into development and infrastucture.  We traded prospects and minor league facilities and international development for Jay Payton and Kevin Millar.  And that enabled the Nats to draft #1, while the O's ended up at five or eight or 10.

And after all that Kevin Millar kept 32 extra fans engaged with the Orioles.

I disagree totally.  I watched through 66 win seasons.  I didnt watch many games last season and only went to one game.  You yourself you didnt go to any games last season for the first time in decades.  At least with guys like Millar and Mora you had some guys to root for as individuals. Hopefully some guys on the team next year can break through and have big years or it will be pretty hard to get anyone in the stands.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

I disagree totally.  I watched through 66 win seasons.  I didnt watch many games last season and only went to one game.  You yourself you didnt go to any games last season for the first time in decades.  At least with guys like Millar and Mora you had some guys to root for as individuals. Hopefully some guys on the team next year can break through and have big years or it will be pretty hard to get anyone in the stands.

I will watch many more games that involve kids trying to establish themselves in the majors than ones where the kids are on the bench or in the minors and 2019's Kevin Millar is in the lineup.  Kevin Millar was/is a funny guy, but basically nobody pays to watch Kevin Millar play for a 68-win team.  They're paying $4M a year for nothing.  They might as well set the money on fire.

[TonySoprano]

3 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

Most teams in the MLB suffered a reduction in paid attendance, including some with winning records, and its not just MLB, but other sports as well, the entertainment market is getting saturated.

For the specific years being discussed, 2005-2006, attendance across MLB increased a modest 1.5%, with 20 of the 30 teams on the positive side.   The biggest increases were the White Sox, Tigers, and Mets.  On the opposite side, the three biggest drops in attendance were, in order, the Marlins, Nats, and Orioles for a combined decrease of -1.7M.
FWIW

CWS    614,578
DET    571,452
NYM    549,604
TOR    287,225
MIN    250,775
TBR    218,170
HOU    218,003
CIN    191,565
COL    189,973
LAD    154,899
NYY    153,088
MIL    124,620
BOS    119,620
PIT    44,304
PHI    36,511
ARI    33,471
ATL    29,357
CHC    23,223
LAA    2,104
KCR    1,457
CLE    -15,768
SFG    -51,238
STL    -131,874
OAK    -132,493
TEX    -136,464
SDP    -210,033
SEA    -244,174
BAL    -471,601
WSN    -578,935
FLA    -688,474

[Cumberbundy]

On 12/31/2018 at 2:09 PM, GoldGlove21 said:

I hear people talking about the on field product this year and I am not sure that Elias cares this season or the next. I think the man is taking his time putting personnel in place instead of signing quality free agents because one or two quality free agents do nothing for a winning season in Baltimore over the next 2-3 years. At the more pitiful we are the better players we get the opportunity to select to help us down the road. I look forward to the Orioles signing young players out of option everywhere else. Keep the operating cost low, keep the expectation low and when the times comes tag some shots at the real prize. To be somewhere in-between is just a foolish goal and a waste of resources IMO.  

Duq ensured the first part of that equation would be fruitful.

[SteveA]

On 12/31/2018 at 3:34 PM, atomic said:

You also lose fans permanently when you are worst team in league 3 years in a row.  If they are worst team in league in 2020 I think that would be a mistake.  And if there is new ownership by that time Elias might be gone.  Realize the Astros blew 2 of their #1 overall  picks and so did the Ray's.  

 

I don't necessarily know that to be true.

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, SteveA said:

I don't necessarily know that to be true.

I think being unbearably bad for 3-4 years in a row probably loses fewer fans than bring just regular bad for 14 straight seasons.   At least we know there’s a plan and process in place.

[atomic]

5 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I will watch many more games that involve kids trying to establish themselves in the majors than ones where the kids are on the bench or in the minors and 2019's Kevin Millar is in the lineup.  Kevin Millar was/is a funny guy, but basically nobody pays to watch Kevin Millar play for a 68-win team.  They're paying $4M a year for nothing.  They might as well set the money on fire.

If you are talking about the 2008 team they had a pretty decent group of position players it was the pitching that was terrible.  I would take watching 2008 team over last years any day.  

Millar vs Chris Davis which one would you rather watch? 

 

[weams]

10 hours ago, Es4M11 said:

I acknowledge that the Houston area is larger in size and population, and that Houston itself is a more populous city. The city of Houston (627 Sq mi) is huge, and comparable in size to Baltimore City and County combined (679 sq mi) -- Baltimore City and County population combined as of 2016 census estimate was 1,445,690. I don't think it is as simple as pointing to the city populations themselves as evidence to why the Orioles can't reach parity with the Atros in stadium attendance.

Just for reference: The greater Baltimore area -- not including any of the DC suburbs, PA, Eastern Shore/Delaware,  Western MD -- had a 2016 census population estimate of 2,798,886 and an area of 2601 sq mi. The greater Houston area had a 2017 census population estimate of 6,892,427 and an area of 8,858.25 sq mi. The Washington DC/NoVa/SoMD metro area had a 2016 census population estimate of 6,131,977 and an area of 5,564 sq mi -- the SoMD counties themselves account for 2,448,459 of the total population and 2,305 sq mi.

Now obviously Baltimore has lost a significant portion of the SoMD/DC/NOVA market to the Nationals, but it still draws some from those areas - - I have no idea how to quantify it, but that is still a large market area that the Orioles have a significant presence in. I'd be real interested to see how many households tune into MASN to watch the Orioles from SoMD/DC/NOVA. Also factor in the Eastern Shore/Delaware, Western MD, and Southern PA component and the population difference between the cities of Houston and Baltimore becomes less of a factor, IMO.

I went back over the years and looked at the Orioles attendance numbers since 1992. I decided to break it down into 4 different periods of time...

1992-2001 (Camden Yards opens, end of the Ripken era)
Average annual attendance: 3,381,296
Average nightly attendance: 43,573
Average record: 82-80 (over 162 -- factoring in strike shortened seasons)
Playoff appearances: 2

2002-2005 (Post Ripken, Pre Nationals)
Avg annual: 2,626,445
Avg nightly: 32,425
Avg record: 72-90

2006-2011 (Post Nats, Dark Ages)
Avg annual: 1,948,481
Avg nightly: 24,055
Avg record: 68-94

2012-2017 (Buckle Up)
Avg annual: 2,244,378
Avg nightly: 27,765
Avg record: 86-76
Playoffs: 3

In order to get to 3 million annual attendance the Orioles would need to average 37,037 per night -- that's roughly 89% of nightly fan attendance during the 90's. A sustained run of success without ownership meddling could get us there, I think.

The Orioles could never get close to 3 million again. That's over. 

[weams]

Just now, weams said:

The Orioles could never get close to 3 million again. That's over. 

They would be lucky to ever get back to Buckle up. 

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, weams said:

They would be lucky to ever get back to Buckle up. 

Ridiculous.   Put a good team on the field several years in a row and test that theory.  

[weams]

13 hours ago, SteveA said:

I don't necessarily know that to be true.

Indeed, I think with a plan, that is not the case.