1989 - 30th Anniversary: Why Not?

[DrungoHazewood]

15 hours ago, The Goob said:

This was my favorite Orioles season every.  They came out of no where and Memorial Stadium was electric in the middle of the summer.  I was in middle school.  My cousin and I used to take the bus from Loch Raven Blvd to 33rd Street for games.  Amazing memories of that season:

• Cal homered and we beat Roger Clemens and the Red Sox on opening day
• Caught a ball in batting practice that I got signed by Randy Milligan that now sits on a shelf in my son's room
• Cal and Billy up the middle all year.  It seemed like no ground ball every got by them
• Tettleton playing out of his mind all year.  He had an autograph signing at Greeting and Readings on Taylor Avenue and was signing Fruit Loops boxes all day
• Devereaux making crazy catches in CF
• Gregg Olson struck out Dave Parker, Dave Henderson and Mark McGwire in the 9th inning of a game in April with the best curve balls I have ever seen before or since and I thought he was a god
• Jeff Ballard somehow won 18 games
• I was at the last home game that season and remember it was the "Shirt off our backs" promotion where a fan drawn at random would get the jersey of a player.  I remember an overweight fan got one from Jim Taber and my cousin and I thought it was the funniest thing ever
• Bradley homered in the first at bat in the deciding series in Toronto
• The radio stations in town playing the Why Not songs on repeat
• Pete Harnish stepped on a nail and could not pitch in that series somehow, still think we could have won it if he had
• We used to stand by the player's entrance trying to get autographs before games and one day a strange looking guy walks by and into the entrance and none of us knew who he was until he got to the entrance to the stadium and turn around and called to us and took off a hat and fake mustache and large coat and waved.  It was Billy Ripken.

I don't know short of winning a World Series if there will ever be a season I love more than the 1989 Orioles.  It wasn't about stats or launch angles or spin rate or prospects or if they were a fluke or not.  For me it was as pure as a kid who loved baseball watching his team shock the world.

1989 is my favorite, too.  Although 2012 came close, and sometimes I think it was '89s equal.  Hangout night with the Manny "don't throw it away don't throw it at all" play followed by McLouth's winning hit off the wall is right up there with Devereaux's game.  

[atomic]

This is why I don't understand the be the worst team in baseball for 3 years plan. The Orioles in 1989 were competitive.  I don't go along with Elias plan to do nothing.  They should be trying to improve the team for this year.  I don't mean sign major free agents but more than just getting guys off the waiver wire.  

Duquette's first year here he went out and got a lot of low price guys and made the team better.  I am not on board with the being the worst. Drafting first overall guarantees nothing in baseball.  And Elias should know that from his organizations complete whiffs on 2 of their 3 overall #1 picks. 

Look at the Red Sox Benintendi was drafted #7 overall.  Mookie Betts in the 5th round and Boagerts was an international signing. Bradley was the #40 pick.  They have one big free agent signing in JD and he is being paid less than Chris Davis.  That team scored 250 more runs than last years Orioles.  

 

[DrungoHazewood]

19 minutes ago, atomic said:

This is why I don't understand the be the worst team in baseball for 3 years plan. The Orioles in 1989 were competitive.

Remember how everyone was up in arms and ready to fire the world and march on the Warehouse with pitchforks when the O's finished six games under .500 in 2017?  The 2018 Orioles were seven wins behind the 0-21 1988 Orioles.  

The '89 Orioles are so fondly remembered because it was so bloody unlikely that they even approach competitiveness.  I'd prefer the Orioles do what they can to rebuild correctly rather than expending resources focusing on 1-in-100 shots.  And who did the 1989 Orioles acquire to try to immediately win more games?  I think the only player who remotely resembles that is Phil Bradley, and they gave up Ken Howell (who went 12-12 with a 3.44 for the Phils and would have been their best pitcher) to get him.

Also, I don't think anyone in the organization has ever stated that they're trying to be the worst team in baseball for even one year.  You're assuming that.

[atomic]

7 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Remember how everyone was up in arms and ready to fire the world and march on the Warehouse with pitchforks when the O's finished six games under .500 in 2017?  The 2018 Orioles were seven wins behind the 0-21 1988 Orioles.  

The '89 Orioles are so fondly remembered because it was so bloody unlikely that they even approach competitiveness.  I'd prefer the Orioles do what they can to rebuild correctly rather than expending resources focusing on 1-in-100 shots.  And who did the 1989 Orioles acquire to try to immediately win more games?  I think the only player who remotely resembles that is Phil Bradley, and they gave up Ken Howell (who went 12-12 with a 3.44 for the Phils and would have been their best pitcher) to get him.

 Also, I don't think anyone in the organization has ever stated that they're trying to be the worst team in baseball for even one year.  You're assuming that.

That is the general consensus on here.  That we will be the worst team in baseball the next 2 seasons.   

[Moose Milligan]

8 minutes ago, atomic said:

That is the general consensus on here.  That we will be the worst team in baseball the next 2 seasons.   

I don't think you understand the concept of what Elias et al did in Houston and how that relates to the current situation.  

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, atomic said:

That is the general consensus on here.  That we will be the worst team in baseball the next 2 seasons.   

I expect we will be very bad.    Maybe not the worst.    There are several other really bad teams.    I do not expect the Orioles to “try to be bad” per se, but they won’t be making moves that might improve the team by a few wins this season but don’t help long-term.   

‘89 was fun, but it was a fluky blip. We won 76 and 67 the next two years.  Then the team turned the corner and had a winning record for 5 of the next 6 years after that.  

[atomic]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I expect we will be very bad.    Maybe not the worst.    There are several other really bad teams.    I do not expect the Orioles to “try to be bad” per se, but they won’t be making moves that might improve the team by a few wins this season but don’t help long-term.   

‘89 was fun, but it was a fluky blip. We won 76 and 67 the next two years.  Then the team turned the corner and had a winning record for 5 of the next 6 years after that.  

Yeah but that 1990 season success did not hurt them at all on their rebuild.  As with the #20 pick in the draft they picked Mike Mussina.  Who I will go out on a limb and say had a better career than Ben McDonald who they picked #1 overall.  And 76 and 67  wins are a lot better than 47 wins we had last season.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, atomic said:

Yeah but that 1990 season success did not hurt them at all on their rebuild.  As with the #20 pick in the draft they picked Mike Mussina.  Who I will go out on a limb and say had a better career than Ben McDonald who they picked #1 overall.  And 76 and 67  wins are a lot better than 47 wins we had last season.

Yes.    Mussina was a brilliant pick, no doubt about it.   As you pointed out in a prior post, many great players weren’t picked at the top of the draft.    But, it’s also clear that the odds are better at the top.    It also helps to be picking at the top of every round.    I think we’re all hoping that Elias & Co. make some great picks throughout the draft, no matter where they pick.    

I think what will interest me the most this season is whether many of the players we already have make improvements this year under the new regime.    The front office surely will be trying to do that, rather than trying to have a bad team.  

[bobmc]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes.    Mussina was a brilliant pick, no doubt about it.   As you pointed out in a prior post, many great players weren’t picked at the top of the draft.    But, it’s also clear that the odds are better at the top.    It also helps to be picking at the top of every round.    I think we’re all hoping that Elias & Co. make some great picks throughout the draft, no matter where they pick.    

I think what will interest me the most this season is whether many of the players we already have make improvements this year under the new regime.    The front office surely will be trying to do that, rather than trying to have a bad team.  

And for me - to see if any of @Luke-OH 's "hot takes" on our little known prospects actually make break throughs (Escarra, Bannon, the OF from Iowa, etc.) using the anal y tics.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

That is the general consensus on here.  That we will be the worst team in baseball the next 2 seasons.   

I think it's pretty safe to say that a 47-win team trying to catch up on a number of fronts like analytics and infrastructure and international investment isn't likey to surge forward over the next year or two no matter what.

[DrungoHazewood]

54 minutes ago, Frobby said:

But, it’s also clear that the odds are better at the top.    It also helps to be picking at the top of every round.  

[atomic]

39 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Hmm doesn't look like much difference between picking at say 38 and 60.  This chart can't be right though. No way the 18th pick in the draft has averaged negative WAR.  

[DrungoHazewood]

20 minutes ago, atomic said:

Hmm doesn't look like much difference between picking at say 38 and 60.  This chart can't be right though. No way the 18th pick in the draft has averaged negative WAR.  

1. It's net value, so it's something like (WAR*$8M) - (cost of first six years).  
2. It's from 2014, so doesn't include Corey Saeger or Sonny Grey.
3. It's pre-free agency
4. I don't know the time frame of the data, but since 1980 R.A. Dickey is by far the best player taken #18, followed by Seager, Glenn Wilson, Gray, and Joe Magrane.
5. Since 1964 only eight #18s have accumulated 10+ WAR, while 24 never got to the majors.

The Orioles have only had one #18 pick, in 1999, Richard Stahl.

[atomic]

I don't think the knew them before they were fancy gets you much.  Just makes you seem old.   I was in some store not that long ago and a young girl was behind the register wearing a Minutemen t-shirt.  I thought about telling her I saw them but thought probably not going to impress anyone that you saw a band that died 15 years before they were born. Not that they were ever anyway famous.