Can Mullins have a bad spring .....

[Il BuonO]

15 hours ago, scOtt said:

I hope not. I'd like to see Rickard make the team as a +4th OFer, but would much rather give Mullins the majority of starts in CF. Until and if he struggles at the plate like last year.

I do worry about Mullins' arm. Not strong at all from the little I've seen.

It’s strange, I was excited to see him last year, not so much this year. He should be given every opportunity to play CF considering the depth. I’m not sure the leash is too long. 

And from what I’ve seen, Rickard is the better defender.

10 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Better player at the MLB level going forward... Mullins or Drew Jackson?

Great question. Jackson is a tremendous athlete and has a plus arm. The question would be, “How well does he adapt to the change?” I’m assuming you’re implying Jackson could play CF by comparing him to Mullins. 

I’d like to keep him and Martin. Don’t know it’s possible. If Jackson can play the OF and IF guess who’s more valuable.

I really see Mullins as a 4th in the OF going forward. I’d be more encouraged if I thought he might hit from the right side or give it up altogether.

[wildcard]

If Mullins doesn't hit do you think Elias will consider keeping Hays in center?

[Luke-OH]

35 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If Mullins doesn't hit do you think Elias will consider keeping Hays in center?

What is your criteria for this and do you think it's possible to determine in spring training?

[wildcard]

15 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

What is your criteria for this and do you think it's possible to determine in spring training?

If Mullins does not have a good OBP in ST against mostly AAA pitchers its hard to think he is going to do better when the season begins.   I hope he starts hitting better and getting on base more.

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If Mullins does not have a good OBP in ST against mostly AAA pitchers its hard to think he is going to do better when the season begins.   I hope he starts hitting better and getting on base more.

What if he has a 11% BB rate and a 17% K rate but a poor OBP? Both of those rates are an improvement from his 2018 MLB rates and those are the two stats which have the most predictive value in spring training. 

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

What if he has a 11% BB rate and a 17% K rate but a poor OBP? Both of those rates are an improvement from his 2018 MLB rates and those are the two stats which have the most predictive value in spring training. 

Well, you know a lot more about that than I do.     I rely on OBP for a guy that does not have a lot of power.   His OPS may be low but his OBP has to be high IMO for him to earn playing time.  Sure Mullins can be of value as a defensive replacement  off the bench if he doesn't hit.   But a low OBP doesn't earn him a starting CF job IMO.

The O's also have to consider his lefty/right splits.   He could be a platoon player and the at bats vs lefties pull his combined OBP down.   

I think the O's also have to consider what is best for Mullins development.  He is 24 years old.  They probably don't want him sitting the bench in the majors if he is not hitting.  They would want to option him to AAA and get him playing time.   Working on hitting lefties and becoming a more complete players.

The best thing that can happen is that he gets on base as a good clip in ST and earns the CF job.  I hope it happens.

 

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Well, you know a lot more about that than I do.     I rely on OBP for a guy that does not have a lot of power.   His OPS may be low but his OBP has to be high IMO for him to earn playing time.  Sure Mullins can be of value as a defensive replacement  off the bench if he doesn't hit.   But a low OBP doesn't earn him a starting CF job IMO.

The O's also have to consider his lefty/right splits.   He could be a platoon player and the at bats vs lefties pull his combined OBP down.   

I think the O's also have to consider what is best for Mullins development.  He is 24 years old.  They probably don't want him sitting the bench in the majors if he is not hitting.  They would want to option him to AAA and get him playing time.   Working on hitting lefties and becoming a more complete players.

The best thing that can happen is that he gets on base as a good clip in ST and earns the CF job.  I hope it happens.

 

My point is that OBP can be cratered by a low BABIP (which has virtual zero predictive value in spring training stats).

I mentioned the 11% BB and 17% K rates because those are his current BB and K rates in 2019 spring training. 

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

My point is that OBP can be cratered by a low BABIP (which has virtual zero predictive value in spring training stats).

I mentioned the 11% BB and 17% K rates because those are his current BB and K rates in 2019 spring training. 

By pointing at a low BABIP  I guess you are saying that he is just hitting into bad luck?     If that is true I hope his luck changes real soon.   

[sportsfan8703]

I was hoping Mullins was going to add the bunting aspect to his game. I haven’t heard anything so I assume he hasn’t tried one. Mullins could help out his game using his speed better at the plate, on the bases, and in the field. 

[Luke-OH]

Just now, wildcard said:

By pointing at a low BABIP  I guess you are saying that he is just hitting into bad luck?     If that is true I hope his luck changes real soon.   

In this small of a sample, I wouldn't even call it bad luck, just normal variation. This is a good article to read on the subject. 

https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/

He's put 12 balls in play, BABIP "stabilizes" (or achieves a .49 R^2) at 820 balls in play. 

 

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

In this small of a sample, I wouldn't even call it bad luck, just normal variation. This is a good article to read on the subject. 

https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/

He's put 12 balls in play, BABIP "stabilizes" (or achieves a .49 R^2) at 820 balls in play. 

 

I don't believe where Mullins is now tells where he will be in a month.  He could go 4 for 4 today. My question in this thread is more about what happens if his bad start continues.   HIs good August turned into a bad September.   The league no doubt has a book on him.   Is that the reason he fell off last year?  Is it going to effect him this year?   We will have to wait to find out.

[sportsfan8703]

Even if he struggles and has to go back down to AAA to work on some things, it isn’t the end of his career. Jackson might be ready for CF now and Hays might be pretty darn close. 

Jackson is really underrated on this board. He’s toolsy as hell. Maybe it’s because he’s a rule 5 guy, but I can’t think of any of our past rule 5 picks compare to him in terms of value/tools/ceiling. We don’t have to “hide” this guy on the roster. 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Even if he struggles and has to go back down to AAA to work on some things, it isn’t the end of his career. Jackson might be ready for CF now and Hays might be pretty darn close. 

Jackson is really underrated on this board. He’s toolsy as hell. Maybe it’s because he’s a rule 5 guy, but I can’t think of any of our past rule 5 picks compare to him in terms of value/tools/ceiling. We don’t have to “hide” this guy on the roster. 

Jackson has played 8 games in CF in his MiL career.    I don’t see him being our starting CF.

[BohKnowsBmore]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Jackson has played 8 games in CF in his MiL career.    I don’t see him being our starting CF.

Seems more like a super utility guy, which is great for now. 

[sportsfan8703]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Jackson has played 8 games in CF in his MiL career.    I don’t see him being our starting CF.

I’d normally  agree, but I bet if you looked back at some of those Dodgers milb teams he was on, they probably had a pretty good player eating up CF playing time. 

Ok I looked it up,

2018 (AA)- DJ Peters and Diaz

2017 (A+)- DJ Peters and Diaz

Jackson was just in a deep and talented system. He shouldn’t be labeled as a super utility guy because he’s toolsy and was blocked by a lot of top prospects. We may have gotten real lucky here.