O's players on the bubble get fewer and fewer

[wildcard]

I few random points:

Karns has fallen behind the other starters and may be out of the starter race.   He is at one inning,  the others are at three.  His recovery time between starts is questionable.   He probably is competing for a reliever spot or  will be optioned.   If he is out as a starter that leaves two spots for Hess, Wright, Rogers, Ramirez, Yacabonis or Means in the rotation.

We have not seen Bleier, Trumbo or Alberto.  Bleier has a decent  chance of making OD as a reliever.   Trumbo is pretty iffy.   His earliest date to be in a ST game is March 12th and the could be a week or two later.  Its one thing to get into games and another to perform well enough to stay off the DL.   If Trumbo DH spot comes open then Nunez or Santander are probably competing for that spot until Trumbo comes back.

Alberto is competing for the 25th man spot along with Escobar, Young, Mullins and Nunez.   

[Tony-OH]

7 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

This is good data and all of this is completely true of his 11 innings of MLB time in 2018. The data shows, he didn't get unlucky, he got lit up.

He's not a top relief prospect by any means, but I think he's more useful than his brief debut showed.  I watched almost half of his AAA appearances and have seen reliable gun readings on him . He averaged more like 95-96 earlier in the season when he was successful and had average FB command. The pitch elicited tons of weak contact, with the majority of batted balls going to opposite field (an indicator I use for hitters being uncomfortable). He does lack a secondary that will allow him to be much more than a middle reliever, but it's a useful pen arm IMO. 

I like him better than Yacabonis and Araujo, although I admit Yacabonis has a live arm and may be able to unlock more of his talent now that he's not going to be coached to pitch to contact anymore.  Ynoa is an interesting case, I want to see where his velocity ends up coming back from injury before I give a take on what he might be going forward. 

I loved 2017 Lucas Long, but 2018 Lucas Long's stuff and command both regressed significantly (actually started late 2017) and the 2018 version looked like an org guy. Maybe there was some health issue. 

I'm actually a little more concerned with Carroll's 2018 MLB debut because he's dealt with command and stuff inconsistencies throughout the 2018 season, despite the stellar minor league stats. Phillips was steady and the only struggles were in his MLB debut. Carroll has more upside though because he does have a plus slider with some frequency. 

I'm not entirely discounting what happened at the major league level, but the 2018 Orioles, especially late in the season, was a terrible situation and I'm willing to put more weight on larger samples of minor league looks on guys like Ortiz, Carroll, and Phillips. 

These are good discussions. 

All good points Luke. I didn't watch any video of him in the minors so I'll take your word, but as you know, how minor league hitters and major leaguers hitters react to pitches can be different. That's why when you have cold hard statcast info you can start to make better judgements. I will say that it's a small sample size, but pitchers' analytics seem to stay pretty close when it comes to the movement and velocity of pitches early in their careers from what I've seen so far. 

As for Yacobonis, he has much more electric stuff than Phillips but has command and consistency concerns. He's probably better off long term in the pen, but with the Orioles' prospects this season, I don't have an issue sticking him at starter and see what happens for at least half a year.

Never was huge fan of Ynoa overall, but I think he could be a fairly effective long man. I like his stuff better than Wright's, but that not saying much. 

As for Long, you are right, the stuff backed up last year, but I'm going to give him another year to see if he can get and stay healthy and see if it comes back. If he's the 2017 reliever version of Long, he's better than Phillips, Carroll, and Wright.

As for Phillips, I'm not releasing him, and there's several people I would DFA before him (including Wright), but he's the kind of guy I think you can find in AAA around baseball and on DFA day late in spring, there will probably be several better options available.

[wildcard]

7 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

This is good data and all of this is completely true of his 11 innings of MLB time in 2018. The data shows, he didn't get unlucky, he got lit up.

He's not a top relief prospect by any means, but I think he's more useful than his brief debut showed.  I watched almost half of his AAA appearances and have seen reliable gun readings on him . He averaged more like 95-96 earlier in the season when he was successful and had average FB command. The pitch elicited tons of weak contact, with the majority of batted balls going to opposite field (an indicator I use for hitters being uncomfortable). He does lack a secondary that will allow him to be much more than a middle reliever, but it's a useful pen arm IMO. 

I like him better than Yacabonis and Araujo, although I admit Yacabonis has a live arm and may be able to unlock more of his talent now that he's not going to be coached to pitch to contact anymore.  Ynoa is an interesting case, I want to see where his velocity ends up coming back from injury before I give a take on what he might be going forward. 

I loved 2017 Lucas Long, but 2018 Lucas Long's stuff and command both regressed significantly (actually started late 2017) and the 2018 version looked like an org guy. Maybe there was some health issue. 

I'm actually a little more concerned with Carroll's 2018 MLB debut because he's dealt with command and stuff inconsistencies throughout the 2018 season, despite the stellar minor league stats. Phillips was steady and the only struggles were in his MLB debut. Carroll has more upside though because he does have a plus slider with some frequency. 

I'm not entirely discounting what happened at the major league level, but the 2018 Orioles, especially late in the season, was a terrible situation and I'm willing to put more weight on larger samples of minor league looks on guys like Ortiz, Carroll, and Phillips. 

These are good discussions. 

The thing that can't be measured with Wright is his confidence.   He seem more confident this spring than in past season.   That is probably the influence of Hyde and Brocail.    And Wright is crediting Brocail with helping him with mechanical and approach changes.   I think we have to realize that McDowell was not a good pitching coach the last two years and the Brocail could be a big addition on the positive side.

[Tony-OH]

16 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I few random points:

Karns has fallen behind the other starters and may be out of the starter race.   He is at one inning,  the others are at three.  His recovery time between starts is questionable.   He probably is competing for a reliever spot or  will be optioned.   If he is out as a starter that leaves two spots for Hess, Wright, Rogers, Ramirez, Yacabonis or Means in the rotation.

We have not seen Bleier, Trumbo or Alberto.  Bleier has a decent  chance of making OD as a reliever.   Trumbo is pretty iffy.   His earliest date to be in a ST game is March 12th and the could be a week or two later.  Its one thing to get into games and another to perform well enough to stay off the DL.   If Trumbo DH spot comes open then Nunez or Santander a probably competing for that spot until Trumbo comes back.

Alberto is competing for the 25th man spot along with Escobar, Young, Mullins and Nunez.   

I found it interesting that he only went one inning yesterday and then Hyde made a comment that he "didn't have his best fastball." With the recovery time issues and lack of "best fastball" I believe it is certainly time to start having concerns. I could see him starting the year on the DL and go through a minor league rehab. 

If so, this gives means that Hess, Ramirez, Yacobonis, Ynoa and maybe even Wright have a better shot at the rotation because there will be two spots open at the beginning of the season.

I think they are currently in that order for the 4th and 5th spot if Karns can't answer the bell.

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The thing that can't be measured with Wright is his confidence.   He seem more confident this spring than in past season.   That is probably the influence of Hyde and Brocail.    And Wright is crediting Brocail with helping him with mechanical and approach changes.   I think we have to realize that McDowell was not a good pitching coach the last two years and the Brocail could be a big addition on the positive side.

Confidence seem to be the new buzz word around camp. Mountcastle cited confidence to play 3B, Sisco cited confidence to his fast start at the plate, Wright claims he's more confident.

To me, these are just like, "the ball is coming out of the hand real good." Everyone has confidence and hope at the beginning of spring training. I don't for second think it makes any difference. 

Wright is still giving up way too many base runner, and I haven't heard any reports or stories about Wright's stuff being better or more importantly consistent. Wright has always flashed major league stuff and at times has shown a plus fastball, plus slider, and plus change, but he's never been able to be consistent with the pitches and his command has always been shaky. 

Now I have heard that he seems more mature and I'm sure he's happy like everyone else is with the new regime, but unless I can hear of something he is specifically doing different I'm going to think he's the same old Wright with his same old across the board poor analytics.

I'd rather give looks to Ramirez, Hess, Rogers, Yacobonis, Means or even Ynoa as a 5th starter. 

[Luke-OH]

Means is my 5th starter favorite at this point. Dude has been 91-95 this spring after sitting 89-91 last year. The curve and slider are fringe and the change is just average but he has good command and mixes well. I wouldn’t be surprised if the secondary pitches tick up with the greater arm strength.

 

 

[Jammer7]

13 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Confidence seem to be the new buzz word around camp. Mountcastle cited confidence to play 3B, Sisco cited confidence to his fast start at the plate, Wright claims he's more confident.

To me, these are just like, "the ball is coming out of the hand real good." Everyone has confidence and hope at the beginning of spring training. I don't for second think it makes any difference. 

Wright is still giving up way too many base runner, and I haven't heard any reports or stories about Wright's stuff being better or more importantly consistent. Wright has always flashed major league stuff and at times has shown a plus fastball, plus slider, and plus change, but he's never been able to be consistent with the pitches and his command has always been shaky. 

Now I have heard that he seems more mature and I'm sure he's happy like everyone else is with the new regime, but unless I can hear of something he is specifically doing different I'm going to think he's the same old Wright with his same old across the board poor analytics.

I'd rather give looks to Ramirez, Hess, Rogers, Yacobonis, Means or even Ynoa as a 5th starter. 

The only thing I disagree with you about is that confidence makes a huge difference. And maybe I am misunderstanding what you wrote, so forgive me if I did.

When players are confident, their thoughts do not drift from the focused task at hand and they do not act in desperation and frustration. The game slows for them and their performance is heightened. Now, is the fragility of their psyche a question? For me, yup. Wright always struck me as a pouty softy. Not a fan, but the new staff is trying to get blood from a turnip. 

Jury is still out on Sisco, but as a catcher, I hope he is tougher than he showed last year. We’ll see about Mountcastle, but I am told he’s a tough kid. 

[Tony-OH]

11 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

The only thing I disagree with you about is that confidence makes a huge difference. And maybe I am misunderstanding what you wrote, so forgive me if I did.

When players are confident, their thoughts do not drift from the focused task at hand and they do not act in desperation and frustration. The game slows for them and their performance is heightened. Now, is the fragility of their psyche a question? For me, yup. Wright always struck me as a pouty softy. Not a fan, but the new staff is trying to get blood from a turnip. 

Jury is still out on Sisco, but as a catcher, I hope he is tougher than he showed last year. We’ll see about Mountcastle, but I am told he’s a tough kid. 

I agree with you that confidence can be important, but success breed confidence. I just think the buzzword in camp is confidence, but everyone has confidence and hope in spring training. Have you ever heard a guy say, "You know, I just don't have nay confidence right now and I need to improve that!" in spring training?

[Tony-OH]

35 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Means is my 5th starter favorite at this point. Dude has been 91-95 this spring after sitting 89-91 last year. The curve and slider are fringe and the change is just average but he has good command and mixes well. I wouldn’t be surprised if the secondary pitches tick up with the greater arm strength.

 

 

I know the few times I saw him he sat more like 91-92 and touched 93-94. Besides the new found break on his slider, it was one of the reasons why his prospects status jumped. The slider was much improved last year over year's past and gave him a pitch to get lefties out, something he didn't do as well until last year.

[Jammer7]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I agree with you that confidence can be important, but success breed confidence. I just think the buzzword in camp is confidence, but everyone has confidence and hope in spring training. Have you ever heard a guy say, "You know, I just don't have nay confidence right now and I need to improve that!" in spring training?

Not sure if I’ve ever heard it, but those kinds of guys certainly won’t last long. Not sure everyone really has a high level of confidence in Spring Training. If they did, pitchers would not overthrow trying to impress. Hitters would not press and try to be someone they are not. 

I got you, and I don’t think Wright being confident will last either. His track record is what it is. I think the new staff obviously has been very upbeat and has talked a lot about this topic with the players, especially those, like Wright, that they want to give one last look to. The reclamation projects, like Wright and Nunez, are where I think the fragile egos just won’t allow their success in MLB. 

[HowAboutThat]

19 hours ago, interloper said:

I mean... that does happen sometimes to prospects. Mike Wright threw an amazing game his first time up, and he is not good. 

Well yes, but Phillips was crushed EVERY time. Maybe he has it in him, but haven’t seen it so far.

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, bobmc said:

Chris Archer likes Evan!

 

It’s always gratifying when a player turns out to be a nice guy. I always liked Archer, and I’m glad to see this.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Philip said:

Well yes, but Phillips was crushed EVERY time. Maybe he has it in him, but haven’t seen it so far.

Well, not literally every time.   In his Orioles debut he retired all six batters he faced and struck out three of them.   He also had a couple of scoreless outings for Atlanta.     He was bad in 6 of the 9 games he pitched in the majors.   

I don’t have any opinion on the guy, but he’s pitched 5 scoreless innings this spring so I’ll keep an open mind.   

[HowAboutThat]

43 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, not literally every time.   In his Orioles debut he retired all six batters he faced and struck out three of them.   He also had a couple of scoreless outings for Atlanta.     He was bad in 6 of the 9 games he pitched in the majors.   

I don’t have any opinion on the guy, but he’s pitched 5 scoreless innings this spring so I’ll keep an open mind.   

Absolutely, I think with this team, you’ve got to have an open mind on everyone. But having an open mind does work both ways. I am not sure about some of them, because I don’t have details on every player. Ortiz, for instance, doesn’t look good...or even useable. And several guys are ahead of Evan.

Im pretty confident at least that we won’t go north with any negative WAR guys, which is way more than last year’s squad offered.

[Number5]

13 minutes ago, Philip said:

Im pretty confident at least that we won’t go north with any negative WAR guys, which is way more than last year’s squad offered.

Chris Davis?