Defying expectations

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, rudyrooster said:

Less than 100 losses would be nice.

That's where I am. If they can get to 63 wins that would be an accomplishment all things considered.

[mdbdotcom]

Chris Davis named AL MVP. That would defy a few expectations.

[wildcard]

Making the playoffs.  That would exceed expectations. 

[spiritof66]

3 hours ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

My assertion from another thread is that the 2019 Orioles will get mathematically eliminated from the division title on the next-to-the-last day of the season by the eventual AL East division champions (the Red Sox) on their homefield ........ just like the 1989 Orioles did, when they dropped a 4-3 decision to the eventual AL East division champion Blue Jays at the SkyDome in late September of 1989.

 

https://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/1989/B09300TOR1989.htm

 

o

I was in Toronto on Friday night and on Saturday to see Ballard and Dave Johnson (after Harnisch's late-night encounter with the kind of nail you're not supposed to have on your foot) pitch their hearts out, and then. .  .  .  Thanks for the reminder! What I recall most about Saturday was that SkyDome was weirdly, kind of unearthly quiet most of Saturday afternoon. I remember it that way, anyhow. 

I think 63-99 would be a great record, but it's much more important to (1) identify in as many cases as possible which young guys are and aren't potential parts of a contending team by 2022, (2) decide whether it's realistic to envision 2020 as a season in which the team can take a real step forward toward .500 or has to be looked at essentially as a continuation of 2019 with new faces, (3) get some future value in trades of some or all of Cobb, Trumbo, Cashner, Bleier, Givens, etc. and (4) resolve, or at least get real close to a resolution of, the Davis albatross. 

Winning 60 or more games would be nice, but other stuff is a lot more important. I wonder how many times I'll have to tell myself that during the season? Maybe 50 to 75?

[byrdz]

It's not like the Orioles haven't defied expectations in the past. I think with a bunch of young and hungry unknown players anything could happen but not likely a winning season. A better record than last years lineup would be quite an accomplishment.

[Ohfan67]

6 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Less than 100 losses, I'd be shocked.

I agree with the OP, if we win 70 somehow, some way, that means the youngsters have come up and kicked ass.  I am betting we get the #1 2020 pick though.  

I want see the youngins kick butt, but I think they keep them down long enough to insure the Orioles get a high pick. No need to blow the draft pick for a few wins. I’ll be crying and gnashing my teeth this year like everyone else, but Elias should stay emotionally detached from the fans crying and let the team lose. I hope Hays et  al are crazy good, but the Orioles need the pick. And will “earn” it I think. 

[JanJaap]

5 hours ago, esmd said:

I think anything more than 81 wins and somehow being a .500 team or better would be a pretty big surprise and drastically exceed expectations.  I'm probably more bullish on them than many others, I dunno, I'm just sensing a vibe that some of these young players might step up, and they might not be as bad as we think they will be.  I don't think they'll be .500, but I could see them with somewhere between 70 and 75 wins.  I dunno, maybe it'll prove to be a mirage, but pretty much EVERYTHING had to go wrong last year to get the result that they did, and I expect some things this year to go better than expected.  We'll see.

Welcome to the Hangout Travis Moon. 

[mdbdotcom]

1 minute ago, JanJaap said:

Welcome to the Hangout Travis Moon. 

I thought Redskin Rick was Travis Moon.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

8 hours ago, mdbdotcom said:

Chris Davis named AL MVP. That would defy a few expectations.

That would be a harbinger of the apocalypse.

[Yachtsman]

65 wins would be a great year for this club. I think Miami has the worse record at the end of the year by the way. I just want to see competent baseball played, unlike last year, and finishing .500 against the Yanks or Sox for the year would be excellent.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

20 hours ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

My assertion from another thread is that the 2019 Orioles will get mathematically eliminated from the division title on the next-to-the-last day of the season by the eventual AL East division champions (the Red Sox) on their homefield ........ just like the 1989 Orioles did, when they dropped a 4-3 decision to the eventual AL East division champion Blue Jays at the SkyDome in late September of 1989.

 

https://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/1989/B09300TOR1989.htm

 

o

That would probably mean the O's win 95+ games.  The AL East is particularly strong, with the Yanks/Sox/Rays averaging 99 wins last year.  So if it takes 97 wins for the division title in 2019 that means the Orioles would have to improve by 50 wins.  

The modern record, I believe, is 32.5 by both the '88-89 Orioles and the '35-36 Boston Braves.  The '61-62 Phillies also improved by 33 wins but that was the year the schedule went from 154 to 162 games.  So the O's would have to not only set the record for largest single season turnaround, but beat it by about 17 games, or nearly 50%.

The two teams who got the Miracle tag, the '14 Braves and the '69 Mets improved by 24 and 27 games, respectively.

The 1889-90 American Association Louisville Colonels went from 27-111-2 to 88-44-4.   That's a 67-win improvement in a single season.  Several caveats apply.  It was the 1800s, so things were weird and primitive.  Louisville played in the AA, which was the inferior of the two existing major leagues.  And in 1890 the Players Association formed a league to compete with the NL and AA leagues, so there was basically 33% expansion in one year.  They dumped some washed up stars, Chicken Wolf had a huge career year, they let a 20-year-old named Scott Stratton throw 431 innings and he went 34-14, and they had by a million miles the biggest turnaround in MLB history.

[Mayor McCheese]

With the second pick of the 2020 MLB Draft the Baltimore Orioles select.....

That would be defying expectations...

[Moose Milligan]

5 hours ago, Yachtsman said:

65 wins would be a great year for this club. I think Miami has the worse record at the end of the year by the way. I just want to see competent baseball played, unlike last year, and finishing .500 against the Yanks or Sox for the year would be excellent.

 

I can see why people think Miami can have a worse record, but they aren't in a division like ours.  Sox, Yanks, Rays are all really strong to great teams that'll feast on us this year.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

5 hours ago, Yachtsman said:

65 wins would be a great year for this club. I think Miami has the worse record at the end of the year by the way. I just want to see competent baseball played, unlike last year, and finishing .500 against the Yanks or Sox for the year would be excellent.

 

That is a huge improvement. It would be 18 more wins than the 2018 Orioles. Normally an 18 win jump would have you thinking about the playoffs. With the O's it would mean they didn't lose a 100+ games. 

[Can_of_corn]

44 minutes ago, Mayor McCheese said:

With the second pick of the 2020 MLB Draft the Baltimore Orioles select.....

That would be defying expectations...

So you think they won't sign this season's top pick?