Baseball America article about O's past/future international effort

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

I am not sure what Dwight Smith Jr or next draft has anything to do with 16 year old's who will be signed starting in summer of 2020. 

I said the last 10 GM's.  I guess Roland was here 8  years and DD was here 7.   If a player signed  at 16 in 2020 got here in 2026 at 22 Elias would be here 8 years which seems the max anyone has stayed here in the last 32 years.  So the odds are he will be gone by the time this pays dividends. 

I don’t know Atomic. Maybe he will. 

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I guess the tenures have been shorter in the Angelos era, though Duq did last 7 seasons.   And who knows how patient the sons will be.

On an intellectual level, we all know this rebuild will take several years.   But let’s assume the O’s finish in a distant last place the next three years and attendance is down to a million a year or less.    A lot of rank and file fans will be calling for Elias’ head, I guarantee it.   And the sons may get itchy, no matter what they discussed with Elias before he was hired.   

I think that will be a shame if they do that. 

[LTO's]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

And I am saying that in at least some of these cases brute force application of money could change minds.  

How do you know this? Even if it were true that doesn't mean "brute force application of money" is prudent. That highly touted prospect that DD and co. were crucified for not just forking over $6 mil for the hell of it? He didn't even get assigned to AA and is floundering at A+ with a .509 OPS as an almost 23 year old. He'll probably be off every top 100 list by midseason. The Orioles cannot effectively compete in this market until they establish connections and relationships with the players at a young age. Period. It's been said by a million people who cover this area and by Elias himself. 

[ThomasTomasz]

1 minute ago, LTO's said:

How do you know this? Even if it were true that doesn't mean "brute force application of money" is prudent. That highly touted prospect that DD and co. were crucified for not just forking over $6 mil for the hell of it? He didn't even get assigned to AA and is floundering at A+ with a .509 OPS as an almost 23 year old. He'll probably be off every top 100 list by midseason. The Orioles cannot effectively compete in this market until they establish connections and relationships with the players at a young age. Period. It's been said by a million people who cover this area and by Elias himself. 

Elias and Co have to fix years, maybe even decades of neglect, from the international system to the player development system.  It's going to take time- his late hiring already put him behind on getting a full front office assembled, so I am really interested to see what moves are made after the season to flesh out more roles and responsibilities in the front office.  I know this is going to take some time, and it may even take more than the five years that they gave Elias.  It might not work, but the Orioles have to get into the 21st Century in regards to player development to give themselves a chance at sustaining long-term success.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, LTO's said:

How do you know this? Even if it were true that doesn't mean "brute force application of money" is prudent. That highly touted prospect that DD and co. were crucified for not just forking over $6 mil for the hell of it? He didn't even get assigned to AA and is floundering at A+ with a .509 OPS as an almost 23 year old. He'll probably be off every top 100 list by midseason. The Orioles cannot effectively compete in this market until they establish connections and relationships with the players at a young age. Period. It's been said by a million people who cover this area and by Elias himself. 

I've lived in this world and have met people.

I never said it would be prudent, I said the idea that all of these kids are irrevocably locked into deals with these teams because of relationships is nonsense.

My guess is that what is actually going on is that a gentleman's agreement is in place between teams to keep costs down.  If a team were to come in throwing money around and poaching players it would disrupt it. 

[LTO's]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I've lived in this world and have met people.

I never said it would be prudent, I said the idea that all of these kids are irrevocably locked into deals with these teams because of relationships is nonsense.

My guess is that what is actually going on is that a gentleman's agreement is in place between teams to keep costs down.  If a team were to come in throwing money around and poaching players it would disrupt it. 

Well if you're not even confident it would be prudent I don't even see the reason to bring it up besides just bickering with people. Other teams aren't throwing money around because they have effectively made in-roads in this market and are able to spread their allotment around in the most value efficient way to multiple prospects that they want. There's no need to keep costs down because the costs are already held down by the caps each team is given. Theoretically teams could trade away assets for $10 million in bonus slots money and blow it all on one player that a team may already have an agreement with. But as you said, you aren't even sure that's prudent. Teams know it isn't so they aren't worried about the possibility of it happening. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, LTO's said:

Well if you're not even confident it would be prudent I don't even see the reason to bring it up besides just bickering with people. Other teams aren't throwing money around because they have effectively made in-roads in this market and are able to spread their allotment around in the most value efficient way to multiple prospects that they want. There's no need to keep costs down because the costs are already held down by the caps each team is given. Theoretically teams could trade away assets for $10 million in bonus slots money and blow it all on one player that a team may already have an agreement with. But as you said, you aren't even sure that's prudent. Teams know it isn't so they aren't worried about the possibility of it happening. 

How can I be confident when I don't have all the information? 

If the O's come in and drop big money and turn the other 29 teams against them it wouldn't be prudent no matter how good the players might be.

So it wouldn't be better for all the teams if the top bonuses were lower?  It would be the same if they signed four kids or 25?  Cap or no cap anything that lowers the cost for teams is good for teams.

 

My main issue is that we are being fed a line that doesn't make sense.  If you are fine with that, great.  I think it bears mentioning. 

As I said earlier for all the talk about how money is the only thing that drives players it's funny that this part of the game money suddenly isn't important, when you would think it would be more important since this is the only real paycheck a lot of these kids are ever going to get.

[Chavez Ravine]

34 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I've lived in this world and have met people.

I never said it would be prudent, I said the idea that all of these kids are irrevocably locked into deals with these teams because of relationships is nonsense.

My guess is that what is actually going on is that a gentleman's agreement is in place between teams to keep costs down.  If a team were to come in throwing money around and poaching players it would disrupt it. 

I also suspect that money is flowing around in indirect ways. For instance, by signing far more players that are "under the influence" of a particular street agent/buscone to your various development camps and teams than you ever genuinely expect have a chance of panning out. There is no way a street agent is steering a player to sign with a particular team just because the scout knows his grandma's name.

[atomic]

2 hours ago, interloper said:

I mean, yeah, that's kind of how it works. I'm not sure what your point is. Any GM who signs 16 year olds, there's a chance he won't be with the team by the time they would be ready for the big leagues. There's plenty of GMs that would, though, too, if they're having success and ownership likes them.

The important thing is that he fixes the systematic problem the Orioles have with the international market. Whether or not he's here for the ML debut of guys Koby Perez finds is neither here nor there.

Yeah I was talking more about the long time frame for these guys to start helping the big league club.  Like AM helped the team build a modern spring training facility in Sarasota.  Didn’t make the team a winner but helped improve the process.   Hopefully the Orioles can build a modern facility in the Domincan.  No one of any stature is going to sign with you when all the other teams have brand new 10 million dollar facilities and you are playing out of a broken down shack.

[atomic]

1 hour ago, Chavez Ravine said:

I also suspect that money is flowing around in indirect ways. For instance, by signing far more players that are "under the influence" of a particular street agent/buscone to your various development camps and teams than you ever genuinely expect have a chance of panning out. There is no way a street agent is steering a player to sign with a particular team just because the scout knows his grandma's name.

Agents probably have been giving the kids family money since the kids was 12 or 13.  Probably agents get some cash from the clubs under the table.  Another culture down there and probably you have to grease a lot of wheels to get a guy to sign with your club.

[LTO's]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

My main issue is that we are being fed a line that doesn't make sense.

Sigh....It makes sense to me and everyone else. It doesn't make sense to you and Atomic.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Sigh....It makes sense to me and everyone else. It doesn't make sense to you and Atomic.

How does it make sense that none of these kids living below the poverty level wouldn't value more money over familiarity?

I'm willing to admit other factors are in play but the whole idea that you can't poach any of these guys by offering more money is just ridiculous.

 

Sorry but as a 16 year old my word is my bond and even though this will probably be the only significant payday I'll see in my life and an additional 75K would make a huge difference in my family's future I must regretfully decline.  Because you know, as a 14 year old I said I'd sign with the other team.

 

[Chavez Ravine]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

Agents probably have been giving the kids family money since the kids was 12 or 13.  Probably agents get some cash from the clubs under the table.  Another culture down there and probably you have to grease a lot of wheels to get a guy to sign with your club.

And apparently at USC, UCLA, Stanford...

[bobmc]

On 4/10/2019 at 3:00 PM, interloper said:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2018-19-international-reviews-baltimore-orioles/

I do not  have access but if anyone wants to summarize, that would be awesome!

 

An MLB podcast about the International Draft.  Joe Trezza says we got scouts all around in that area where *@Can of Corn used to survive/know peeps.  Joe quotes source as saying, "I have seen more #Orioles scouts at international events over the last two months than I've seen in a decade."  It's a 40 minute piece and we need @OFFNY to transcribe .  Buscones anyone?  Dinero under the mesa?  Our own @Greg Pappas says that O's are discussed at the 12:30 mark.  If this is posted elsewhere, please delete my hijack:

*  I kid about @Can of Corn but it would be nice to hear something about the buscone system and what really happens out there as @Can of Corn has alluded: 

 

[Redskins Rick]

The Orioles havent been in this market, and they didnt have a network of relationships in the market.

So yes, the numbers are in for last season, and the team ranks last, no surprise, at least it shouldn't be.

Elias said this was something he was going to change when he was hired. Apparently, its working as, now there are reports of seeing lots of Oriole reps working the market.

I dont look for instant success off the next international time period, but the groundwork is being laid.