Are Baseballs "Juiced" This Season?

[Mendoza Line]

46 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Why wait two years? Seems like something that should be fixed right away.

Waiting to see the long term results of viewership ratings? Casual fans for sure dig the long ball.

[panick]

51 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Why wait two years? Seems like something that should be fixed right away.

Manfred Mann doesn't want to change. If you paid attention to the changes he talked about in spring training, you'd know he wants to take good pitching out of the games so there will be slow-pitch softball scores every night.

I think it's a toss-up between this guy and Goodell as to which is the worst commissioner.

[Tony-OH]

Exit velocity is up at least 1 MPH this year from what I've heard. The ball that Guerrero hit last night for the monster homer looked like a drive from a golf club.

[TonySoprano]

Jayson Stark always has a way of finding interesting trivia with numbers
 

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The Orioles vs. The ’59 Dodgers

For every action, there’s a reaction. Which means, if I’ve analyzed this correctly: For every home run that’s hit, somebody has to give one up. Right? So … have you watched an Orioles game lately?

The 2019 Orioles are on a pace to allow 333 homers this year. That’s just nuts, no matter how juiced the baseballs are. Maybe this will help you digest that little nugget: That’s as many long balls as the Red Sox and Cubs gave up combined last season. But there’s also this:

If the Orioles keep serving up bombs at this clip, they’re going to crush the all-time single-season gopherball record — held by Jumbo Díaz’s 2016 Reds (258) — by a mind-blowing 75 homers. Yep, 75! That works out to an absurd 29 percent.

According to STATS, the last time any team did that much damage to the home-runs-allowed record was 1884, when Larry Corcoran’s fabled Chicago White Stockings decided to mess with the ground rules of the funkily designed Lake Front Park — and wound up breaking the record for homers surrendered by a mere 277 percent (from 22 to 83).

But let’s ignore any history that was made in 1884, OK? If we careen into the 20th century, we can’t find any significant single-season pitching record that was broken by more than 20 (or even 15) percent since Johnny Podres’ 1959 Dodgers spiked the team-strikeout record by 20.2 percent (from 896 to 1,077).

That was 60 years ago, though. And it joins just this tiny list of single-season pitching records that have been broken by at least 20 percent since 1900 — none of them lately!

TEAM	RECORD	OLD	NEW	PCT.
1959 Dodgers	Strikeouts	896	1,077	20.2%
1922 Athletics	HR allowed	89	107	20.2%
1906 White Sox	Shutouts	26	32	23.1%
1904 White Sox	Shutouts	21	26	23.8%

So what’s the point here, other than the Orioles do more launching these days than NASA? It’s this: With all the home runs flying every night, you can lose perspective on just how many there are and what it means. But when you realize these records aren’t merely being broken, they’re being annihilated, it’s time to say: This isn’t normal. This. Is. Crazy!

 

[TonySoprano]

More Jayson

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Nearly twice as many runs score on home runs now (45.3 percent) as on singles (23.3 percent). So according to STATS, it’s never been less likely, at any point in history, that your team is going to drive in a run with a single.
LOWEST % OF RUNS SCORED VIA SINGLES*

Season	Singles_Runs	R	PCT
2019	4474	19,211	23.3
2018	5366	21,630	24.8
2017	5603	22,582	24.8
2016	5719	21,744	26.3
2001	6211	23,199	26.8

 

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Every HR record in history will get broken!

All right, so technically, every home-run record in history won’t get broken. But tell me it doesn’t feel like it as we careen along, on pace for 1,200 more homers than last season — the largest single-season jump in baseball history. Did you know there have already been more home runs than last year? And it isn’t even September yet!

What’s amazing is that thanks to those Titleist Pro V1s we’re using, this is a phenomenon that’s showing up across the sport, in a way that’s totally unlike what we saw in the PED era.

“It’s guys who used to hit five or 10 who are now hitting 20,” one exec said. “It’s not guys who used to hit 25 who now hit 60.”

Exactly. So here are a few historic quests to watch out for in September:

• Double digits — The record for most players hitting 10-plus home runs in a season is 242, set in 2017. The number of players who have done it already this year: 238. We count 36 players with eight or nine right now, so this one is going down any minute.

• Roaring 20s — Most players hitting at least 20 homers in a season? That was 117, in 2017. The number who have done that this year? “Only” 93. But there are another 38 with 17, 18 or 19. And there are 156 players with at least 15 already. So this record is about to topple, too.

• 200 percent — Also sure to fall is the record for most teams bopping 200 homers. We have 11 teams that have already crossed that threshold, 19 with 185 or more and an incredible 24 on pace to hit 200-plus. The record is 17, also set in 2017. But that’s the only season in history with more than 12. Adios!

• Tear up that record book — Current number of teams on pace to set their single-season franchise record for home runs in a season? That would be 15 at the moment — aka half the teams in baseball. Unreal.

• More homers than singles — We’re used to tracking this stat for hitters. This year, we could see the first pitcher to do it. Josh Hader was on track a few days ago but is now at 13 homers allowed, 13 singles. In LA, reliever Yimi García is somehow at 14 gopherballs, 10 singles. If we set the bar at double figures in each department, we’ve had only two previous close calls: Andrew Heaney (12 and 12, in 2017) and Kirby Yates (10 and 10, in 2015). If this happens, let’s make a trophy and have Joey Gallo present it, OK?

 

 

 

[TonySoprano]

The Twins hit 6 HRs (in a 10-7 loss to Detroit) to break the single season mark set by NYY last year.   It was also the 11th game that MIN had at least 5 HRs, also a MLB record.

[El Gordo]

Great: article: “If they had given me just three of these baseballs back in January,” Dr. Meredith Wills is saying, “I could have told them in five minutes that home runs would go up and that pitchers would have problems. It’s that obvious.” “Well, first off you have to understand something,” Dr. Wills is saying. “Until the home run committee last year, there was no such thing as aerodynamic testing for baseballs. Now you tell me: How in the heck are you going to make a baseball with no aerodynamic testing?”https://joeposnanski.substack.com/p/juiced-baseballs-a-history

[Can_of_corn]

4 hours ago, TonySoprano said:

The Twins hit 6 HRs (in a 10-7 loss to Detroit) to break the single season mark set by NYY last year.   It was also the 11th game that MIN had at least 5 HRs, also a MLB record.

They have 27 games left.

[Morgan423]

So, I got my first look at an actual MLB ball from this year.  My brother and law and mother in law were visiting from out of town a couple of weeks ago, and we took them to their first O's game.  In his very first MLB game ever, my brother in law caught a late game Rio Ruiz foul ball.  

I got a good look at it later, and holy crow are the the stitches low and tight on this ball.  I often joke about one of us training up a knuckleball and joining the O's rotation, but now that I've seen the balls, I think it'd be literally impossible, because these things don't have enough seam to actually throw a knuckleball.  

Believe what you've read about this contributing to the power surge in baseball... there's no way these balls have as much drag as they used to. 

[TonySoprano]

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Home runs surged 58% at Triple-A this season following the switch to major league baseballs.

According to the organization that governs the minors, 5,752 homers were hit in the International and Pacific Coast Leagues. That's up from 3,652 in 2018.

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Home runs rose 57% in the International League, from 1,555 to 2,440, and 58% in the Pacific Coast League, from 2,097 to 3,312.

Long balls dropped in nine of 14 leagues from Double-A down, where China-manufactured balls were used.

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/27545491/home-runs-triple-level-surge-58

[DrungoHazewood]

11 hours ago, TonySoprano said:

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/27545491/home-runs-triple-level-surge-58

 

 

 

 

Many of us are thinking about ways to go back to historically non-obscene levels of homers. But what if MLB is asking themselves how to duplicate AAA baseball in the majors?  What if we see a 58% increase in homers in the majors next year?  Is it really that far-fetched?  Could a team hit/allow 400 or even 500 homers next year?  

Maybe baseball doesn't care about historical norms and strategies, but about what might excite the coming generations of fans who never have seen a season where 36 homers leads the league.  Long periods without any balls in play just might provide the opportunities for more advertising and revenues.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Many of us are thinking about ways to go back to historically non-obscene levels of homers. But what if MLB is asking themselves how to duplicate AAA baseball in the majors?  What if we see a 58% increase in homers in the majors next year?  Is it really that far-fetched?  Could a team hit/allow 400 or even 500 homers next year?  

Maybe baseball doesn't care about historical norms and strategies, but about what might excite the coming generations of fans who never have seen a season where 36 homers leads the league.  Long periods without any balls in play just might provide the opportunities for more advertising and revenues.

Reggie Jackson led the AL in slugging at .502 in his only season as an Oriole in 1976. I would prefer that version of baseball over MLB trying to turn every game into home run derby. Worst part is I don’t doubt MLB is thinking of ways to further increase the number of home runs. A Yankees team hitting 350 home runs in 2020 doesn’t seem that far fetched.

[Redskins Rick]

9 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Reggie Jackson led the AL in slugging at .502 in his only season as an Oriole in 1976. I would prefer that version of baseball over MLB trying to turn every game into home run derby. Worst part is I don’t doubt MLB is thinking of ways to further increase the number of home runs. A Yankees team hitting 350 home runs in 2020 doesn’t seem that far fetched.

MLB thinks the long ball will save the game, theyve felt that way for quite a while

[LookinUp]

On 9/1/2019 at 2:07 PM, El Gordo said:

Great: article: “If they had given me just three of these baseballs back in January,” Dr. Meredith Wills is saying, “I could have told them in five minutes that home runs would go up and that pitchers would have problems. It’s that obvious.” “Well, first off you have to understand something,” Dr. Wills is saying. “Until the home run committee last year, there was no such thing as aerodynamic testing for baseballs. Now you tell me: How in the heck are you going to make a baseball with no aerodynamic testing?”https://joeposnanski.substack.com/p/juiced-baseballs-a-history

Yes. I liked that article too. Very long, but good history. What I don't get is why people misunderstand the ignorance about manufacturing baseballs. See this:

Quote

 

“Do you really think,” I ask, “that this could just happens? I mean, golf spends impossible sums of money every year to make the ball more aerodynamic? Do you think it’s possible that baseball could have made a more aerodynamic baseball by accident?”

She pauses to think about this one.

“It’s a great question,” she says. “But I think when it comes to the baseballs, they’ve just been throwing things against the wall to see what sticks.”

 

 

There's a very simple difference. There are essentially a few manufacturers and a couple of powerful buyers of baseballs. Golf has much more market competition. It has driven the science of golf balls. I don't really think MLB is very expert about baseball science relative to what has happened in golf. The comparison itself is pretty interesting. Like baseball, golf really has changed a lot because of the distance added to balls. They've embraced the changes and cut their grass different (e.g., longer holes) to account for it. Baseball doesn't react to better baseball manufacturing science by changing the dimensions of ballparks. They really cannot, so some kind of standards around exit velocity, drag, seam height, etc., that attempt to control distance and allow pitchers to spin the ball probably is what needs to happen. The same goes for bats, which I think may be in place already. 

 

[jjnono]

One of my frustrations about the current all-or-nothing, home run heavy, strikeout circus state of the game, is the way it's perceived by little ball players.  As a little league coach, my boys (10 yr olds going on 11) are all enamored with hitting home runs, and striking out everyone when pitching, because that's the game they see and hear.  The inverse lesson they are learning is that if they are not hitting home runs or striking out batters, they are somehow inferior players.  And the reality is that, at this age and most certainly at later ages, many of these kids won't have the power to hit lots of home runs or strike out lots of hitters.  At the MLB level, the game has so heavily de-emphasized the subtler skills of bat control, speed and defense that many kids get frustrated and quit the game.  My own son, who went 2-3 last weekend with two singles (and who, like his dad, is not a prodigious physical specimen - my frame is much more akin to Harry Dean Stanton than Giancarlo Stanton!), was long-faced in the car, bemoaning his lack of power.  The kid is hitting .450!  And he's bummed.

When I was in little league, though, and through HS into college, a had a good eye, was a solid gap-to-gap hitter who might get into an inside fastball once or twice a season, and if the porch was short, might be rewarded with an HR.  But my bat control and defense allowed me to be an important and contributing member to a lot of pretty good baseball teams.  I was able to ENJOY playing the game for a long time primarily because I had a couple of skills that were valued and important to every team I played on.  And without being too hyperbolic, I just don't see that too much anymore.  Every kid is stepping to the plate and trying to hit it out of the park.  Lost is the art of hitting behind a runner, shortening up at the plate with two strikes, or working the count in your favor...  or heaven forbid, just putting the ball in play and running hard out of the box. The list goes on and on.  A kid makes an error on an easy two-hop ground ball and he shrugs it off. But if he grounds out on a two-hopper, he's coming back to the dugout with tears coming down his face... 

I certainly understand how analytics has changed the game, and that numbers don't lie.  I am now just beginning to teach launch angle and keeping the bat barrel in zone for as long as possible with good mechanics, primarily because the state of the game demands it (as well as a few parents!).  But analytics are lost on the younger kids, who are just starting their baseball journeys, and who, from my perspective, feel as if they have to excel in one or two aspects of the game, or they are simply not playing it well enough to keep doing it.  And that's a shame in my book.  Baseball needs to, once again, spread its joy and rewards more democratically among a wider set of skills and diverse talents.