Mancini Trade Package

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

The one scenario where a competitive team might be interested is if there is an injury opening up a spot. If that doesn't happen, I agree, the universe of teams interested in Mancini is quite limited. However, we also have Mountcastle and DJ Stewart among others with similar skill sets. I would not do any kind of extension but if an offer doesn't materialize just hit him with a QO and take the draft pick compensation.

Mancini will not be a FA until after the 2022 season.   The current CBA runs through 2021.   Do you think there will even be a QO in the new CBA?

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

The one scenario where a competitive team might be interested is if there is an injury opening up a spot. If that doesn't happen, I agree, the universe of teams interested in Mancini is quite limited. However, we also have Mountcastle and DJ Stewart among others with similar skill sets. I would not do any kind of extension but if an offer doesn't materialize just hit him with a QO and take the draft pick compensation.

I don’t think this article is a big surprise. Offense is up throughout baseball. You can go team-by-team and look for needs at 1B, COF, DH. 

The best fit I could find a week ago was TB. Do they believe Choi is the answer?  He’s OPSing close to .800 and is a superior glove guy at 1B. My hypothetical trade was Mancini to TB for Shane Baz. 

 

[Bahama O's Fan]

4 hours ago, jamalshw said:

I've been thinking this lately, too. There likely isn't much of a market. You don't trade him for lottery tickets. I hold him unless you can get a solid prospect and a couple lower-level guys in return. I think the best option for a deal would be Cleveland if they could stomach him in the outfield since they're so depleted there. But are they going to be buyers? Mancini may be viable for them since he's controllable and not too expensive.

Another option would be Milwaukee if they finally cut ties with Jesus Aguilar. They have Eric Thames for first, but they're not giving him many ABs against LHP. I could see them going for Mancini, but pitching would be a priority so it's hard to say what they would give up.

Is this the only market?

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

 Why in the world do you think Trey would reject a qualifying offer? 

 

He's on track for like 4 oWAR. Assuming he keeps that up, I could see him wanting to test free agency. Heck, Trumbo got $37 mil (maybe not the best example).

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Philip said:

That is certainly true, but Trey’s single dimension isn’t that outstanding. Not bad, yes, above average, yes, but enough to make other teams dream of him in their uniform, no. 

I think Trey’s value depends on whether you think he’s going to be a .900 OPS hitter for several years, as he’s been for the first half of 2019; or whether you think his true talent is closer to his career .808 OPS; or if you see him as somewhere in between.    I happen to think a .900 OPS hitter is pretty valuable, but I’m not convinced Trey is going to be in that ballpark going forward.   Not convinced yet, anyway.    

[Yardball85]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Depends how good they are at that dimension.    

Plus, he isn't really one dimensional; that implies that he just hits for power.  However, Mancini has a .364 OBP as well.  I understand the limitatiosn with him at the deadline, but he is an impact bat that will be cheap and controllable for three more years.  That has to have more than negligible value.

[jamalshw]

15 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Is this the only market?

No idea. Injuries notwithstanding, I'm having a hard time placing him. In my opinion, a team has got to be desperate for offense to see him as a legitimate outfield option (Cleveland), and of the competing teams (or even border line teams, there aren't many that Mancini would be a big enough upgrade to make it worthwhile to give up a good enough package.

I'm sure there are several teams that would take him as a depth/bench bat, but ones that would really target an upgrade at 1B are few and far between. Boston might make some sense, but they have Martinez in teh DH spot and Moreland for 1B. Granted, Moreland is on the IL, but they also have Chavis playing 1B now. You could make an argument to bench Bradley, move Mookie permanently to CF, play Martinez in the OF and DH Mancini, but I doubt they'd give up enough to make the Orioles do it, particularly in-division. The Rays were rumored interested in Encarnacion, but he's a bigger--more proven--upgrade over Choi and Garcia as the primary 1B and DH.

If Texas fancies itself a contender there may be a spot to unseat Ronald Guzman, but would they really go all-in? And if they did, wouldn't they focus on pitching?

In the NL, the Braves have Freeman, Phillies have Hoskins. At 37-40, are the Nationals' contenders? That's a potential spot, I guess. Cincinnati is another fringe team rumored to be looking for a controllable bat. Mancini qualifies, but Votto is still at 1B so they'd have to put him in OF. I already covered Milwaukee as a possibility. The Cubs, Cardinals, and Pirates have Rizzo, Goldschimidt, and Bell, no need there. San Diego does weird things (see Manny and Hosmer), but with Hosmer and Myers, they already have two first baseman with one playing out of position. Arizona is another maybe if they believe they're contenders by the end of July. It would be interesting to see him leap-frog Walker again who is batting just .240 with six homers and 16 RBI since the end of April with 50 Ks in 167 ABs.

 

[DirtyBird]

Regardless of Mancini's trade value, that was a terrible article.

[atomic]

If Mancini keeps up his over .900 OPS is valuable as a first baseman/DH. The question is can he keep that up. I think he is more valuable to the Orioles than another team.  The team has been promoting him as an all-star caliber player.  I am not sure why you would do that and turn around and trade him for what you will likely get in return.  

 

 

[Philip]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think Trey’s value depends on whether you think he’s going to be a .900 OPS hitter for several years, as he’s been for the first half of 2019; or whether you think his true talent is closer to his career .808 OPS; or if you see him as somewhere in between.    I happen to think a .900 OPS hitter is pretty valuable, but I’m not convinced Trey is going to be in that ballpark going forward.   Not convinced yet, anyway.    

I think at the moment, the cautions you mention are why we shouldn’t trade him now. Our posse of first basemen isn’t ready yet, and he has negligible trade value so keep him unless we get a knock-out offer...which we won’t. And he’s cheap into his first year of arbitration at least, so he’s more valuable to us.

But I will happily wager my immortal soul that he will never be offered a QO.

[Philip]

3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

As I've said before...if this was a first round pick putting up a .928 OPS in his age 27 season, we'd be collectively crapping our pants.  I don't think people here believe Trey is this good because...lack of prospect and draft status.  He's not supposed to be this good.

IMO, the main issue here with Trey's trade value is that he's most likely looked at as a first baseman and there are a ton of good first baseman in the game right now.

Unfortunately, the Davis situation is getting in the way.  Get rid of Davis, put Trey at first full time.  We will need a first baseman.  And I know everyone has a stiffy for Mountcastle but the dude doesn't walk.  I understand the infatuation with prospects here but I'm not sure about making room for Mountcastle because Mancini is viewed as a "meh" player who only does a couple things really well.  Mountcastle doesn't do a whole lot well either, yet people want to overlook those things when it's convenient for making the case for a prospect.

I’m not as down on MC as I am on Sisco, though the defensive knocks are similar. I’m happy to give him a chance to show what he can do, but my feeling is that whoever was in charge of drafting just wasn’t very good.

And I’m very glad that’s changed.

[atomic]

10 minutes ago, Philip said:

I’m not as down on MC as I am on Sisco, though the defensive knocks are similar. I’m happy to give him a chance to show what he can do, but my feeling is that whoever was in charge of drafting just wasn’t very good.

And I’m very glad that’s changed.

Of players drafted in the second round of the 2012 draft only 3 players have more WAR than Chance. The 3 guys drafted right after him look like failures.  

[DirtyBird]

Would Trey Mancini make Tampa Bay a better team?

[LookinUp]

If his trade value is negligible, he won't be traded. If it's great, he will be traded. I assume it's in between. The question is whether Elias can identify young guys who aren't yet on BA/BP types of prospect lists but have the potential to grow into valuable pieces. In that case, maybe we can get 1 guy like a Diaz (maybe single A version) and then a couple of below the radar guys like Adam Hall and Rom were last year. 

[DirtyBird]

9 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

If his trade value is negligible, he won't be traded. If it's great, he will be traded. I assume it's in between. The question is whether Elias can identify young guys who aren't yet on BA/BP types of prospect lists but have the potential to grow into valuable pieces. In that case, maybe we can get 1 guy like a Diaz (maybe single A version) and then a couple of below the radar guys like Adam Hall and Rom were last year. 

That is a crazy return to expect. That was a organizations top 10 prospect plus recent HS picks from the 2nd and 4th rounds.