Maybe Givens is not a closer

[Il BuonO]

11 hours ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Paul Fry is the definition of mediocre.  I would prefer having the best reliever in the highest leverage situation. 

Right now, that’s not Givens.

[Obando]

1 hour ago, webbrick2010 said:

LOL, Givens has close to zero trade value. Won't even get a top 15 prospect from a mediocre system.

I think you are wrong about this.  Sure, right now while Givens is struggling it’s easy to think he has close to zero trade value, but if you look at his entire body of work, the quality of his stuff, and the fact that he doesn’t hit free agency until after the 2021 season, I think he actually has pretty solid trade value.  That’s not to say he would fetch a top 50 prospect, but if Givens gets on a roll, I guarantee you there are plenty of contending teams that would love to have him and would give up something of value to get him.  Don’t just focus on the horrendous week he just had.  Even the best pitchers & hitters have bad weeks and months.  Look at all the factors I listed above.  Givens isn’t a total scrub like you might currently view him, and it’s easy to feel that way right now.  He has been an above average reliever overall since he came up in 2015, but he has had some rough stretches this year & last that have inflated his ERA and made him look worse than he actually is.

Either way, Givens will get traded at some point.  It’s Elias’ job to try and extract as much value out of him as he can, so let’s hope he gets back to what he has shown he can be when he’s going well and Elias can trade him at peak value, whether it’s this year or next.

[El_Duderino]

I try to keep in mind how little time Britton needed to rebuild his trade value last year. Hopefully this is just a blip from Givens.

[Obando]

Just now, El_Duderino said:

I try to keep in mind how little time Britton needed to rebuild his trade value last year. Hopefully this is just a blip from Givens.

Although, right now that Britton trade is looking pretty mediocre for the Orioles.  Rogers has been horrible in AAA, Tate is injured and wasn’t even pitching well when he was healthy at AA, and Carroll has been injured for most of the season so far.  It’s still early to call that trade a bust, but right now, it’s not looking nearly as good as it did at the time of the trade last year.

[atomic]

 

1 minute ago, El_Duderino said:

I try to keep in mind how little time Britton needed to rebuild his trade value last year. Hopefully this is just a blip from Givens.

We didn’t get anything for Britton.  Unless you consider Josh Rodgers something.

[thezeroes]

See the Jim Johnson trade from a few years ago to the value of Givens

[El_Duderino]

16 minutes ago, atomic said:

 

We didn’t get anything for Britton.  Unless you consider Josh Rodgers something.

Return looks suspect I’ll give you that. Still Tate was the Yankees 9th best prospect at the time. That’s not nothing 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, El_Duderino said:

Return looks suspect I’ll give you that. Still Tate was the Yankees 9th best prospect at the time. That’s not nothing 

Pretty close, I think draft status influenced the ranking.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

15 minutes ago, thezeroes said:

See the Jim Johnson trade from a few years ago to the value of Givens

That wasn’t the same circumstances. Johnson for all his struggles in 2013 still had 50 saves and 2.94 ERA. 

Orioles wanted to dump his salary and not pay him. 

Givens isn’t going to get $10M in arbitration and isn’t pitching nearly as well as Johnson did in 2013.

Givens potentially has more trade value if he pitches lights out the next two months. 

[stillofan]

Why does every team have to have a closer?  If a guy is pitching ok, why take him out?  Unless you have a lights out bullpen, every time you bring in another pitcher, there is a risk that he might not have his stuff.  That risk is really high for the Orioles' bullpen.

[atomic]

11 hours ago, El_Duderino said:

Return looks suspect I’ll give you that. Still Tate was the Yankees 9th best prospect at the time. That’s not nothing 

Tate has a 6 run ERA at double A at age 25.  He was rated as our 17th best prospect to start the season.  Evidently whomever is rating the Orioles prospects is more on the ball than whomever is ranking Yankees prospects.  I would say what we got was nothing.

[atomic]

10 hours ago, stillofan said:

Why does every team have to have a closer?  If a guy is pitching ok, why take him out?  Unless you have a lights out bullpen, every time you bring in another pitcher, there is a risk that he might not have his stuff.  That risk is really high for the Orioles' bullpen.

Yeah if you bring in 7 relievers in a game odds are someone is going to have an off night even on a good team.  With us it is a guarantee several are atrocious.

[atomic]

11 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

That wasn’t the same circumstances. Johnson for all his struggles in 2013 still had 50 saves and 2.94 ERA. 

Orioles wanted to dump his salary and not pay him. 

Givens isn’t going to get $10M in arbitration and isn’t pitching nearly as well as Johnson did in 2013.

Givens potentially has more trade value if he pitches lights out the next two months. 

How about more like Pedro Strops value when we traded him.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

How about more like Pedro Strops value when we traded him.

That is a better comparable if Givens doesn’t get out of this slump. 

[spiritof66]

Unless he turns things around, Givens won't help the team or bring back anything in a trade. It's important to try to see whether he can pitch effectively and just isn't doing so, and if that's the case get him doing that again.

As part of that effort, I think it's important to try to separate Givens as a pitcher from Givens as a  closer. One way, the best way IMO, to do that would be to try Givens as an opener at least three or four times weeks, pitching a couple of innings, 40 pitches or so per start. That way he'll be pitching regularly, facing good hitters, and starting innings with the bases empty in low-pressure situations.

I, for one, would be interested in seeing how he performs in those situations. If he's successful, that would suggest that there's a problem with him closing. If he's not throwing strikes and getting hit hard when he does, that's a different problem. Then you go from there in deciding whether he can close and in deciding whether it's possible to build his trade value.