Mancini Drawing Interest

[Lucky_13]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Salary offset/dump by the Brewers. 

He can play SS. Has some speed.  That would be good on a “contender’s” bench.  We should be able to dump him for something. 

Agreed. It's not going to be for much but I think they move him.  He would have been an ideal August 31st trade candidate in years past so teams can add him when rosters expand. 

Wonder if Cleveland would be interested.  Kipnis isn't having a great year. 

[atomic]

37 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’m going to sound like a broken record here but I just don’t see the point of a 45-50 win team spending $2+ million on Villar the rest of this season, and then watching him get $6 million in arb next year. 

I say take what you can get for him now, even if the market isn’t there. Might as well give Martin all the ABs at SS and pray he can turn into something. Plus that then opens up 2B for Wilkerson to get ABs. We have my boy Jace Peterson for 2B if need be. Haha. 

Bottomline... this team shouldn’t be spending money on any players right now. We’re stuck with Trumbo, Davis, and Cobb. Maybe we have to wait a year to trade Bundy and Givens, I’d pull the trigger now. I think Mancini’s value is at its highest too, just no market. 

2021 is looking like a pipe dream. Maybe even 2022. We need future assets. 

I like the idea of Cashner to Boston. Mancini to TB. Bundy and Givens to Milwaukee. Villar to whoever wants to upgrade their Util spot. 

Wilkerson and Martin aren't major league players.  I am not sure why  you would want to be opening up anything for them.

[atomic]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Mancini has actually improved while playing RF this year. He's been just -2 OOA and -2% catch added (his rookie year he was -3 and last year was -5 catch % added), which is the same as Santander (in much less time out there) and Wilkerson. Dwight Smith Jr. has put up a -7 OOA.

So while Mancini is not a plus defender out there, he not so bad where he kills a team in RF. His route running is solid average and his jumps have actually improved to 0.3 (0.0 is MLB average). His problem is he has poor burst speed (-2.0) but that has improved from -3.1 his rookie year and -2.7 last year. His -1 OAA on 2-star catches is in the 47.6 percentile in baseball which makes him a slightly below average outfielder on routine catches.

In other words, Mancini has actually improved defensively since moving out there and although I would still prefer him at 1B, he's not so bad in RF that it hurts his value, unless of course you want use the severely flawwed dWAR metric to define his worth. BTW, I don't think any teams uses dWar any longer now that the statcast information truly measures defensive ability in outfield.

I have seen Mancini play enough to know his route running isn't average.  

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, atomic said:

Wilkerson and Martin aren't major league players.  I am not sure why  you would want to be opening up anything for them.

Newsflash, neither is half the darn team. 45 wins. 

[Tryptamine]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Mancini has actually improved while playing RF this year. He's been just -2 OOA and -2% catch added (his rookie year he was -3 and last year was -5 catch % added), which is the same as Santander (in much less time out there) and Wilkerson. Dwight Smith Jr. has put up a -7 OOA.

So while Mancini is not a plus defender out there, he not so bad where he kills a team in RF. His route running is solid average and his jumps have actually improved to 0.3 (0.0 is MLB average). His problem is he has poor burst speed (-2.0) but that has improved from -3.1 his rookie year and -2.7 last year. His -1 OAA on 2-star catches is in the 47.6 percentile in baseball which makes him a slightly below average outfielder on routine catches.

In other words, Mancini has actually improved defensively since moving out there and although I would still prefer him at 1B, he's not so bad in RF that it hurts his value, unless of course you want use the severely flawwed dWAR metric to define his worth. BTW, I don't think any teams uses dWar any longer now that the statcast information truly measures defensive ability in outfield.

Granted half a season of defensive metrics hasn't stabilized yet, but a -10 DRS through 394.2IP in RF is pretty awful. He's only -1 with 210.0IP at 1B which is tolerable.

[Roll Tide]

Quote

Mancini for Ian Happ and SS Zach Short

Here's a deal proposal from Fansided .....

 

Not sure how the writer thinks this is good for the Orioles. I'd be okay with Short but Happ is only a .230 (.770 OPS) at AAA and his clock is already ticking. 

 

Id be looking for Short plus one of Alzolay/Steele/Abbott and a lottery ticket.

 

 

[HowAboutThat]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Mancini has actually improved while playing RF this year. He's been just -2 OOA and -2% catch added (his rookie year he was -3 and last year was -5 catch % added), which is the same as Santander (in much less time out there) and Wilkerson. Dwight Smith Jr. has put up a -7 OOA.

So while Mancini is not a plus defender out there, he not so bad where he kills a team in RF. His route running is solid average and his jumps have actually improved to 0.3 (0.0 is MLB average). His problem is he has poor burst speed (-2.0) but that has improved from -3.1 his rookie year and -2.7 last year. His -1 OAA on 2-star catches is in the 47.6 percentile in baseball which makes him a slightly below average outfielder on routine catches.

In other words, Mancini has actually improved defensively since moving out there and although I would still prefer him at 1B, he's not so bad in RF that it hurts his value, unless of course you want use the severely flawwed dWAR metric to define his worth. BTW, I don't think any teams uses dWar any longer now that the statcast information truly measures defensive ability in outfield.

That was a really interesting comment, and very gratifying as well.

 It’s nice to know that Mancini‘s defense has improved enough that he is playable in the outfield. 

I have a question about statistics, however. I just got used to using dWAR And here you say it’s already an obsolete stat. What are The most meaningful defensive stats? And do you more often use fangraphs or baseball reference?

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’m going to sound like a broken record here but I just don’t see the point of a 45-50 win team spending $2+ million on Villar the rest of this season, and then watching him get $6 million in arb next year. 

I say take what you can get for him now, even if the market isn’t there. Might as well give Martin all the ABs at SS and pray he can turn into something. Plus that then opens up 2B for Wilkerson to get ABs. We have my boy Jace Peterson for 2B if need be. Haha. 

Bottomline... this team shouldn’t be spending money on any players right now. We’re stuck with Trumbo, Davis, and Cobb. Maybe we have to wait a year to trade Bundy and Givens, I’d pull the trigger now. I think Mancini’s value is at its highest too, just no market. 

2021 is looking like a pipe dream. Maybe even 2022. We need future assets. 

I like the idea of Cashner to Boston. Mancini to TB. Bundy and Givens to Milwaukee. Villar to whoever wants to upgrade their Util spot. 

I understand that line of thinking, but the other line of thinking is that you hope you can turn him into something of value when the team will be contending. that could happen this offseason, or at next year's deadline. We also know the Orioles can carry at least a $140 million a year payroll so even if we use your numbers and dump another $4 million on him next year, at least he should play better than say a Jack Reinheimer playing SS or 2B. I want to give Villar every opportunity to make himself valuable enough to get something of value back. If that's a $4 million chance, I'd be willing to take that.

 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Perhaps Duquette was planning to move him for prospects and hoping he'd improve his value here. I think the deal with Villar was the best he was offered. Remember that PA was in the background meddling. 

I don't understand why everyone is so down on Villar. So he's basically a 2B who has played SS way too much due to Martins struggles. 

He so far is a1 war player but his OWar is 1.9 and his DWAR is -.5. When he played 2B for the Brewers he was a .7 DWAR. So playing out of his position has hurt him. A contender likely wouldn't try to play him at SS.

 

PA was not meddling at all during the Duquette deals last year. 

As for Villar, I agree, he has value and I think we will see Elias get some value back for him. It was a good deal for Duquette to get him back for Schoop because of his age, controllability, and potential to bring back more return in the future. 

[HowAboutThat]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Mancini has actually improved while playing RF this year. He's been just -2 OOA and -2% catch added (his rookie year he was -3 and last year was -5 catch % added), which is the same as Santander (in much less time out there) and Wilkerson. Dwight Smith Jr. has put up a -7 OOA.

So while Mancini is not a plus defender out there, he not so bad where he kills a team in RF. His route running is solid average and his jumps have actually improved to 0.3 (0.0 is MLB average). His problem is he has poor burst speed (-2.0) but that has improved from -3.1 his rookie year and -2.7 last year. His -1 OAA on 2-star catches is in the 47.6 percentile in baseball which makes him a slightly below average outfielder on routine catches.

In other words, Mancini has actually improved defensively since moving out there and although I would still prefer him at 1B, he's not so bad in RF that it hurts his value, unless of course you want use the severely flawwed dWAR metric to define his worth. BTW, I don't think any teams uses dWar any longer now that the statcast information truly measures defensive ability in outfield.

Also, I’m a little bit unclear on your comment regarding Santander.  Are you saying he is no better than Mancini?  Or Mancini has improved to the point where he is almost as good as Santander?

I was actually under the impression that although Smith is bad bad bad, Santander and Wilkerson were pretty good in the outfield.

is that incorrect?

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

I have seen Mancini play enough to know his route running isn't average.  

Haha. Well let's just say I'm going to go off statcast information before your eyeballs.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Salary offset/dump by the Brewers. 

He can play SS. Has some speed.  That would be good on a “contender’s” bench.  We should be able to dump him for something. 

H can't play any position well. He's basically a poor man's version of Eduardo Nunez. We're not going to get anything of value for him and it was a waste of trade piece to accept him as part of the deal. I guarantee you they didn't negotiate the deal and then ask for Villar at the very end for free. He most certainly hurt the quality and/or number of prospects we received in return. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

8 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Here's a deal proposal from Fansided .....

 

Not sure how the writer thinks this is good for the Orioles. I'd be okay with Short but Happ is only a .230 (.770 OPS) at AAA and his clock is already ticking. 

 

Id be looking for Short plus one of Alzolay/Steele/Abbott and a lottery ticket.

 

 

Agree with you, but Short doesn't impress me much either. Ian Happy has been a strikeout machine with the Cubs, I don't want him. 35% KO rate has a rookie and 43% last year with the Cubs. No thanks, would rather hold onto Mancini.

[wildbillhiccup]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

PA was not meddling at all during the Duquette deals last year. 

As for Villar, I agree, he has value and I think we will see Elias get some value back for him. It was a good deal for Duquette to get him back for Schoop because of his age, controllability, and potential to bring back more return in the future. 

I'm a bit surprised to hear you say this. The Brewers were trying to trade Villar for years and no one wanted him. That speaks volumes to me. I'd be amazed if anyone would trade for him with the idea of making him an everyday player. I just don't see anyone giving up anything of value for a bench player. 

[sportsfan8703]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I understand that line of thinking, but the other line of thinking is that you hope you can turn him into something of value when the team will be contending. that could happen this offseason, or at next year's deadline. We also know the Orioles can carry at least a $140 million a year payroll so even if we use your numbers and dump another $4 million on him next year, at least he should play better than say a Jack Reinheimer playing SS or 2B. I want to give Villar every opportunity to make himself valuable enough to get something of value back. If that's a $4 million chance, I'd be willing to take that.

 

I’d say Villar’s value is rebuilt. He is what he is. Look at his time with us,

 

143 GP, 18 HR, 61 RBI, 38 SB, .740 OPS, 2.3 WAR

Good enough for the second best season of his career. He might be more than $6 million in arb, especially with him playing so much SS. 

I know the market isn’t perfect, but no point of bringing him back for that much next year. The ugly side or rebuilding is take what you can get and save the money. Reallocate that money to the draft, Int’l signings, upgrading facilities, hiring away personnel from other teams.