Trade Value Expectations

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, jgjbanker said:

You can tell it's the trade deadline when Roch says Mancini is staying, and Morosi says that his market is heating up. Mixed information here we come!

As always, I’ll be glad when it’s over.   

[wildbillhiccup]

I'd gladly take Adbert Alzolay for Villar. At 24 though he might be too old

 

According to MASN's Roch Kubatko, the Cubs have discussed Jonathan Villar with the Orioles.

Kubatko adds, however, that the "there doesn't appear to be a match" between the two clubs. 

[wildbillhiccup]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Word from National writers about the Orioles looking to trade Mancini from weeks ago.  Tons of corner OF, DH, 1B options on the team and in the upper levels.  Now is the time.  There's enough smoke for me to think it happens.  

The bigger question is there a need / market. I imagine most teams only view him as a 1B / DH option. 

[Spy Fox]

18 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Has anyone heard what the Blue Jays got back for Sogard? If the Orioles are are able to trade Villar I would expect slightly less. I think Sogard's versatility and defense makes him more valuable. 

Villar has been a much better hitter for his career than Sogard, and he's 5 years younger.

If anything makes Sogard more valuable it's just if a team thinks he's "figured something out" to be suddenly hitting .300 at age 33. 

[interloper]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As always, I’ll be glad when it’s over.   

At least it won't continue into August this year?

I kind of liked the weird August rules though if I'm being honest. And interestingly it doesn't seem to be spurring teams to make deals earlier or more frequently. 

[wildbillhiccup]

6 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Villar has been a much better hitter for his career than Sogard, and he's 5 years younger.

If anything makes Sogard more valuable it's just if a team thinks he's "figured something out" to be suddenly hitting .300 at age 33. 

The problem is I think that Villar still isn't good enough to start for most of the teams in playoff contention. With a guy like Sogard they can play him just about anywhere and spell their starters. With Villar, unless he's an upgrade over their current 2B I don't see the appeal. With B.Lowe being out he should have had some appeal to the Rays, but I didn't hear a peep about them being interested in him. I think that speaks volumes about the league's general opinion of Villar's worth/value. 

[Philip]

51 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

He really doesn’t make that many mistakes, but the ones he makes are very noticeable.   He’s 22/28 in steals, 79% which is quite good.    Otherwise, he’s only made 2 outs on the bases, which is a low figure.       He’s advanced an extra base on a single or a double 60% of the time, which is well above average.  BB-ref has him at +3 on the bases.  

Really, about the worst you can say is that he occasionally tries for an extra base or a steal in situations where it doesn’t make sense.    But you’d be hard pressed to identify five times where that happened this year, and when it did, he was probably successful more than half the time anyway.    

As to his defense, I can’t think of anything particularly harebrained that he’s done.    

This is a quote from MLBTradeRumors:

 

“Villar has split the 2019 season between shortstop and second base in Baltimore, drawing negative reviews at second base from both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating a year after rating quite well in both categories.”

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Philip said:

This is a quote from MLBTradeRumors:

 

“Villar has split the 2019 season between shortstop and second base in Baltimore, drawing negative reviews at second base from both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating a year after rating quite well in both categories.”

Having a negative rating and making dumb plays are two different things.    

[wildbillhiccup]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Having a negative rating and making dumb plays are two different things.    

I think we're splitting hairs here. The take away is that he's regarded as a bad defensive player this season. Without doing a deep dive into the numbers, my guess is his weaknesses are being exposed more this season since he's playing every day.

[Whammer]

40 minutes ago, Philip said:

But we will see. In two days we will know.

One thing is certain, no matter what happens, we'll all be greatly disappointed. 

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I think we're splitting hairs here. The take away is that he's regarded as a bad defensive player this season. Without doing a deep dive into the numbers, my guess is his weaknesses are being exposed more this season since he's playing every day.

I don’t consider it splitting hairs.    I was responding to a post claiming that Villar “makes really stupid mindless mistakes all the time.”   Whether he’s a good defender is irrelevant to that point. Mancini’s a poor defender and nobody claims it’s because he makes dumb plays.  

[wildbillhiccup]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t consider it splitting hairs.    I was responding to a post claiming that Villar “makes really stupid dumb mistakes all the time.”   Whether he’s a good defender is irrelevant to that point. Mancini’s a poor defender and nobody claims it’s because he makes dumb plays.  

Mancini hits enough to justify playing him at DH though. No team is going to play Villar at DH. I also think, if he is given enough appearances, Mancini can be at least an average defensive first baseman. 

[TheOtherRipken]

7 minutes ago, Whammer said:

One thing is certain, no matter what happens, we'll all be greatly disappointed. 

Only way I would be disappointed is if we trade no one.  

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Mancini hits enough to justify playing him at DH though. No team is going to play Villar at DH. I also think, if he is given enough appearances, Mancini can be at least an average defensive first baseman. 

Whatever his defensive shortcomings, Villar has been worth 1.6 rWAR, 1.4 fWAR in 2/3 of a season.   He’s basically a league average starter and there are teams that can use that.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2019-replacement-level-killers-second-base/

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2019-replacement-level-killers-shortstop-and-third-base/

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

7 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Mancini hits enough to justify playing him at DH though. No team is going to play Villar at DH. I also think, if he is given enough appearances, Mancini can be at least an average defensive first baseman. 

Most any player can hack it at 1B if they get the chance. It would have been nice to showcase Mancini at 1B to bump up his trade value. This why I disagree with others who say it doesn't matter if Chris Davis plays this year. If you don't have Davis on the 25 man roster then Mancini is your everyday 1B. I don't know if any NL playoff contenders need a 1B, but I think if Mancini gets traded it will be an AL team because at the very least he can DH.