Roch: "I don't expect Villar back with the O's in 2020."

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

Come on. This is intellectually dishonest. 

You think it was an honest prediction or a call back to the playoff drought we had last time?

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

I agree with you about the age thing. Regarding Villar, I suppose the only thing we can all agree on is that we can keep him until we find somebody better. He’s not terrible but he’s not a player for contending team and he’s not worth 7 million.

He wouldn't be the worst regular on any team in baseball, even the best, so while he's not anything close to a building block, he is worth 7M and he would be a solid everyday guy for a contending team. 

[Philip]

Just now, Luke-OH said:

He wouldn't be the worst regular on any team in baseball, even the best, so while he's not anything close to a building block, he is worth 7M and he would be a solid everyday guy for a contending team. 

Ok, I’ll accept you opinion. So you think we should tender him?

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Just now, Philip said:

Ok, I’ll accept you opinion. So you think we should tender him?

I say no. Elias has a budget from ownership on how much he is allowed to spend, and Elias will decide to invest Villar's tender amount into player development. 

[Luke-OH]

Just now, Philip said:

Ok, I’ll accept you opinion. So you think we should tender him?

The "he wouldn't be the worst regular on any team in baseball" isn't opinion, it's extremely defensible by statistical arguments. 

Yes, they should tender him and trade him this offseason IMO. 

[interloper]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You think it was an honest prediction or a call back to the playoff drought we had last time?

It was in response to someone saying a 24 year old had a chance to be on the next good team, so you tell me. 

If that's the case, we should punt on 22-year old Mountcastle and others. It's a silly take. Not only is ownership effectively different, the entire makeup of the organization is different and has been for awhile. The game of baseball itself has changed even since MacPhail came in. 

Could it happen? Sure. But losing for 14 straight years was already improbable, and it's improbable for that to happen to any team in baseball in this era. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

It was in response to someone saying a 24 year old had a chance to be on the next good team, so you tell me. 

If that's the case, we should punt on 22-year old Mountcastle and others. It's a silly take. Not only is ownership effectively different, the entire makeup of the organization is different and has been for awhile. The game of baseball itself has changed even since MacPhail came in. 

Could it happen? Sure. But losing for 14 straight years was already improbable, and it's improbable for that to happen to any team in baseball in this era. 

Hence me thinking it obvious that folks could tell it wasn't an actual prediction but was a reference to the O's past struggles.

 

[wildbillhiccup]

11 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

He wouldn't be the worst regular on any team in baseball, even the best, so while he's not anything close to a building block, he is worth 7M and he would be a solid everyday guy for a contending team. 

I don't think anyone would ever play Villar at DH which means 2B would be his only realistic everyday position. Are there three playoff contenders who don't already have a 2B as good as or better than Villar? Other than Oakland I can't think of any. 

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Hence me thinking it obvious that folks could tell it wasn't an actual prediction but was a reference to the O's past struggles.

 

It took you like two more replies before you finally said "it won't take 2 or 3 years" which is something we can all probably agree on. I don't know why you set out to respond to people in such a way where your actual (less hot) take is disguised by an extremely hot take that isn't even your real take. 

It's frustrating. Just say what you mean. 

[Philip]

Just now, Luke-OH said:

The "he wouldn't be the worst regular on any team in baseball" isn't opinion, it's extremely defensible by statistical arguments. 

Yes, they should tender him and trade him this offseason IMO. 

Why do you think he’d have value in the offseason when he apparently didn’t now? In the off-season there’s lots of roster changes and probably a lot more options for teams.

[NCRaven]

This has literally been one of the dumb downest threads I’ve ever read on the Hangout!

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

It took you like two more replies before you finally said "it won't take 2 or 3 years" which is something we can all probably agree on. I don't know why you set out to respond to people in such a way where your actual (less hot) take is disguised by an extremely hot take that isn't even your real take. 

It's frustrating. Just say what you mean. 

It wasn't meant as a hot take, it was meant as a joke.  Oh look these young guys are going to be with the O's for a full 14 year rebuild.  It seemed really obvious to me.

[interloper]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It wasn't meant as a hot take, it was meant as a joke.  Oh look these young guys are going to be with the O's for a full 14 year rebuild.  It seemed really obvious to me.

The thing is you disagree with people so much that half of your jokes just end up sounding like counter-arguments. I dunno, maybe it's just me. Didn't read like a joke at all, more like a cynical exaggeration. 

Regardless, it doesn't matter. 

I think the next somewhat decent, barely above .500 Orioles team is about 3 or 4 years away. It could be way longer.  Or they could randomly play above their heads next year or the year after. Crazier stuff has happened. I don't think projecting out is particularly useful because it's not based on all that much other than the ages of our top prospects, prospects who are themselves completely unreliable predictors of anything. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

The thing is you disagree with people so much that half of your jokes just end up sounding like counter-arguments. I dunno, maybe it's just me. Didn't read like a joke at all, more like a cynical exaggeration. 

Regardless, it doesn't matter. 

I think the next somewhat decent, barely above .500 Orioles team is about 3 or 4 years away. It could be way longer.  Or they could randomly play above their heads next year or the year after. Crazier stuff has happened. I don't think projecting out is particularly useful because it's not based on all that much other than the ages of our top prospects, prospects who are themselves completely unreliable predictors of anything. 

If other folks weren't wrong so often that wouldn't be an issue. 

The above is a test.  Is that a joke?  Is it cynical exaggeration?

I'm not going to emoticon for your benefit each and every time I make a joke.

[MurphDogg]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If other folks weren't wrong so often that wouldn't be an issue. 

The above is a test.  Is that a joke?  Is it cynical exaggeration?

I'm not going to emoticon for your benefit each and every time I make a joke.