Is Sisco Toast?

[LA2]

Is Melba toast?

[Ohfan67]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think it shows how unimportant it is that you (and I) didn't even notice.

Likewise, the Orioles are 11th in stolen bases and mega suck. If you regress stolen bases versus wins it’s a shotgun blast. I remember back in the really dark days the Orioles often were near the top in stolen bases in the AL because of BRob while having an incredibly putrid offense and crappy records. Stolen bases and caught stealing are exciting plays, but they just don’t mean very much. 

[atomic]

10 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Likewise, the Orioles are 11th in stolen bases and mega suck. If you regress stolen bases versus wins it’s a shotgun blast. I remember back in the really dark days the Orioles often were near the top in stolen bases in the AL because of BRob while having an incredibly putrid offense and crappy records. Stolen bases and caught stealing are exciting plays, but they just don’t mean very much. 

I think you are discounting stolen bases too much, Ricky Henderson scored a ton of runs,  146 in one season.  

[LA2]

9 hours ago, atomic said:

I think you are discounting stolen bases too much, Ricky Henderson scored a ton of runs,  146 in one season.  

That works out to 13.7 lbs. per run. Now if we could obtain the weight of his stolen bases that year, we might make some real progress in this debate.

Actually, I have another method: charting number of stolen bases vs. runs scored by Rickey (since these are the two parameters you've highlighted). For example, to take the extreme data points, the season he stole the most bases (130 SBs in 1982) he scored 119 runs and the season he stole the least (in any season he played more than 130 games) the figures are 53 SBs / 114 runs. So maybe one can say at least that a stolen base weighs .064 runs.

In the season he scored the most runs (146), he stole 80 bases; the least runs (101, 105 twice) were the years he stole 77, 108, and 58, respectively. Difficult to see a direct relationship.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

15 hours ago, atomic said:

That is actually quite impressive.   Maybe the Orioles pitchers need to work on holding on runners better. 

Maybe we can bring in Brian Matusz as a TTP consultant.

[DrungoHazewood]

7 hours ago, atomic said:

I think you are discounting stolen bases too much, Ricky Henderson scored a ton of runs,  146 in one season.  

80 steals and 10 caught didn't hurt, but Rickey Henderson had a .419 OBP that year.  He most often had a near-HOF (Willie Randolph) batting behind him, followed by an MVP and near-HOFer in Don Mattingly, a real HOFer in Dave Winfield, and another former MVP in Don Baylor.  You'd have scored 80 runs in that place in that lineup. 

Vince Coleman, Ron LeFlore, Omar Moreno, and Maury Wills all had seasons where they stole 90+ bases and didn't even score 100 runs because they didn't get on base enough.

[atomic]

7 hours ago, LA2 said:

That works out to 13.7 lbs. per run. Now if we could obtain the weight of his stolen bases that year, we might make some real progress in this debate.

Actually, I have another method: charting number of stolen bases vs. runs scored by Rickey (since these are the two parameters you've highlighted). For example, to take the extreme data points, the season he stole the most bases (130 SBs in 1982) he scored 119 runs and the season he stole the least (in any season he played more than 130 games) the figures are 53 SBs / 114 runs. So maybe one can say at least that a stolen base weighs .064 runs.

In the season he scored the most runs (146), he stole 80 bases; the least runs (101, 105 twice) were the years he stole 77, 108, and 58, respectively. Difficult to see a linear relation.

 

You are totally discounting his steal rate and other things like OBP

  The year he scored 146 runs he was only caught stealing 10 times.  The year he stole 130 he was caught 42 times.

 

[atomic]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

80 steals and 10 caught didn't hurt, but Rickey Henderson had a .419 OBP that year.  He most often had a near-HOF (Willie Randolph) batting behind him, followed by an MVP and near-HOFer in Don Mattingly, a real HOFer in Dave Winfield, and another former MVP in Don Baylor.  You'd have scored 80 runs in that place in that lineup. 

Vince Coleman, Ron LeFlore, Omar Moreno, and Maury Wills all had seasons where they stole 90+ bases and didn't even score 100 runs because they didn't get on base enough.

I think you are proving my point. Vince Coleman scored 94 runs with a .581 OPS..  When he got his OPS up to .721 he scored 121 runs. LeFlore scored 95 runs with a .700 OPS in 130 games.  Maury Wills scored 130 runs with a .720 OPS. He had 6 offensive WAR with an OPS + of 99 and won the MVP that year.  If you are totally discounting stolen bases based on zero facts because you like to avoid facts I am not sure what I can do for you.

If you get caught every third you are not getting any advantate.  Better than a 67 percent steal rate and you are helping your team  Less than 67 percent and you are hurting your team. . If you have over 100 stolen bases at over a 90 percent clip you are going to be a star player even with a below league average OPS +  .   

 

 

[atomic]

So Villar 80  percent steal rate is leading to more runs. The Orioles 78 percent Severino allowed steal rate is hurting the team.  And the 86 percent steal rate Sisco has allowed has really hurt the team. I think some of that percentage is on the pitchers as both guys had significantly better rates last year. 

[DrungoHazewood]

54 minutes ago, atomic said:

I think you are proving my point. Vince Coleman scored 94 runs with a .581 OPS..  When he got his OPS up to .721 he scored 121 runs. LeFlore scored 95 runs with a .700 OPS in 130 games.  Maury Wills scored 130 runs with a .720 OPS. He had 6 offensive WAR with an OPS + of 99 and won the MVP that year.  If you are totally discounting stolen bases based on zero facts because you like to avoid facts I am not sure what I can do for you.

If you get caught every third you are not getting any advantate.  Better than a 67 percent steal rate and you are helping your team  Less than 67 percent and you are hurting your team. . If you have over 100 stolen bases at over a 90 percent clip you are going to be a star player even with a below league average OPS +  .  

You just like to argue.  Your original statement was " I think you are discounting stolen bases too much, Ricky Henderson scored a ton of runs,  146 in one season."  Ricky didn't score 146 runs primarily because of steals, but because he was on base all the time in front of very good hitters.  Ted Williams once scored 150 runs in a season where he stole one base.  Sammy Sosa scored 146 in a season where he stole zero.  Since 1900 nobody has scored even 130 runs in a season with an OBP under .320, no matter how many bases they stole.

[Il BuonO]

29 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You just like to argue.  

You’re a little late to the party.

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, atomic said:

So Villar 80  percent steal rate is leading to more runs. The Orioles 78 percent Severino allowed steal rate is hurting the team.  And the 86 percent steal rate Sisco has allowed has really hurt the team. I think some of that percentage is on the pitchers as both guys had significantly better rates last year. 

Yes, but the effect isn’t that big.    28 attempts, should catch 8, has caught 4, so 4 extra steals.    Each “extra” steal is worth between .09 and .29 runs, depending on which base is stolen and how many outs there are; call it .2 runs on average.    So the 4 extra stolen bases are worth maybe one run.   

[Can_of_corn]

Is he saying that Sisco's CS rate being 8% lower is significant?  He thinks some cutoff exists between 22% and 14%?

Villar's CS rate doesn't include pickoffs right?

[atomic]

27 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is he saying that Sisco's CS rate being 8% lower is significant?  He thinks some cutoff exists between 22% and 14%?

Villar's CS rate doesn't include pickoffs right?

He has 3 pick offs that weren't included in his caught stealing.  If you add those he has 75 percent success rate.  Still make it positive.  But players get picked off who aren't attempting to steal.  

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is he saying that Sisco's CS rate being 8% lower is significant?  He thinks some cutoff exists between 22% and 14%?

Villar's CS rate doesn't include pickoffs right?

Yes and no.    Villar has been picked off 6 times.   Three of those were classified as pickoff/caught stealing and so count in his CS stats.    The other three don’t.   

The difference between a pure PO and a POCS is whether the runner is out trying to get back to 1B or is running to 2B.

If you include the three pure pickoffs, Villar’s success rate drops from 80% to 75%, which is still very good.