Dan Duquette did pretty well with July 2018 trades

[jamalshw]

To me, the Orioles only "win" if the deals result in talent that is useful when the team is good again. So, looking at that, I'm looking for players that can provide positive value in 2022 and beyond. That eliminates Villar unless they flip him this winter or next year for a good piece for the future.

Overall, I think the deals we got at the deadline in 2018 were a bit over-exaggerated at their worst, but they'll likely end up looking just okay.

I like Diaz and am intrigued by Kremer and Bannon, but don't know if any of them develop into more than a league-average option. I think Diaz will be a solid regular in the OF. I look at Kremer as a potential No.4 starter. And I think Bannon at his best is a passable option at 2B or more likely serviceable part-time player at 2B and 3B. That's potentially three solid pieces for one so if all of that pans out, the Manny deal would be a "win," though that's not to say the Dodgers lose as a result, but the Orioles' side for what was needed was a success even if not overwhelmingly so because of the lack of an elite piece.

I know Britton's injury situation at the time offered concern, but the ultimately return here is underwhelming. I have no faith in Rogers becoming anything and only marginally more in Carroll. I think Tate could be a middle relief option, but doubt we see anything of real value from this.

Villar was the key return (though not at the time) for Schoop. Carmona hasn't developed and Ortiz doesn't look like he'll make it. The real test here is what we get for Villar in a deal and what that return is able to contribute a few years down the road.

The Gausman trade was a lot about clearing salary and that was a success. Gausman and O'Day didn't pan out to help Atlanta so that's worth noting, but the player return being a positive very much hinges on Zimmermann. He's overachieved since getting here, but if he can stick as a starter (even as a No.5) I think that completely changes the return. Encarnacion is still young enough so, maybe, but Cumberland is a backup catcher option and Phllips is a middle-reliever, both fringy roster guys.

If everything (or mostly everything) goes right in development and wen end up with an everyday OF, No.4 starter, No.5 starter, a couple useful relievers, a useful role player at 2B/3B, and something of value in a Villar trade for the next somewhat competitive team, the ultimate return has to be considered a success. But assuming all the players that look like they have a chance to make it actually do make it is a HUGE leap of faith.

[theocean]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Sure it added value, but if that value comes exclusively while the team is terrible, I’d say it served little strategic purpose.    Now, if we trade Villar for some useful future pieces because of his good season this year, then maybe we got some strategic value out of the trade.    

Even while terrible, there is value in having talented players even if they do not result in future strategic pieces. Baseball is an entertainment business and there is certainly value from a business standpoint. I know its popular right now, but I really think the "the-team-is-bad-so-sell-everything" mantra is overplayed at this point.

[Tony-OH]

We will know if the O's "won" the trades when any of these players are helping a future contending Orioles team.

I would say there's a good chance of that happening between Kremer, Diaz, Pop and Bannon. 

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I think there is a very good chance that the O's win the Machado and Britton trades as well.  But some of the O's players will have to perform for that to happen.

The O's traded 2 1/2 months of Manny's service time for  Diaz, Kremer, Bannon and Pop.  Those 4 have to accumulate enough playing time and value in the majors to equal Manny service time with the Dodgers.  Manny helped the Dodgers get to the WS even if they did lose there.  The Dodgers did get some significant value from Manny.  Bur the O's were never going to pay Manny 10/300m.

The O's also traded a little over 2 months of Brittons service time for Carroll, Tate and Rogers.  So the O's have to get at least that much value at the major league level from those three players to win the trade.    The Yankees won a wild card spot but lost in the Division series.    However O's were not going to sign Britton to an extension or as a free agent.  Not with Boras as his agent.

The O’s knew they’d never pay him 10/300, so why didn’t they trade him earlier? When they could get better value. 

[Aglets]

1 minute ago, waroriole said:

The O’s knew they’d never pay him 10/300, so why didn’t they trade him earlier? When they could get better value. 

Every year that Dan and Buck were here the Orioles were trying to compete and make the playoffs.   That's why they held onto Manny as long as possible until literally they were the worst team in baseball.

[weams]

28 minutes ago, wildcard said:

That's my point.

Do you honestly think that his value skyrocketed from the perceived no value he had at the trade deadline?

[Redskins Rick]

5 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Every year that Dan and Buck were here the Orioles were trying to compete and make the playoffs.   That's why they held onto Manny as long as possible until literally they were the worst team in baseball.

I think the system in place, was working, until Toronto came calling and kicking the tires on DD.

Peter got riled up, and took over micromanaging the team, and the results are quite evident, or the lack of results.

[interloper]

I agree with the actual title of the thread that suggests Duquette did "pretty well". 

I think going beyond that (right now, at least) is a little more dicey. 

[wildcard]

32 minutes ago, waroriole said:

The O’s knew they’d never pay him 10/300, so why didn’t they trade him earlier? When they could get better value. 

Because they thought they could make the playoffs in 2017.  And they spent to upgrade the pitching for 2018 thinking they could turn it around.   But injuries especially to Tillman and age caught up to them.

[wildcard]

31 minutes ago, weams said:

Do you honestly think that his value skyrocketed from the perceived no value he had at the trade deadline?

Skyrocketed? No.   But could they get a good prospect for him or two?  I think there is a chance.

[weams]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Skyrocketed? No.   But could they get a good prospect for him or two?  I think there is a chance.

I think there is a chance that we could get Tyler Herb and an International player. 

[weams]

41 minutes ago, waroriole said:

The O’s knew they’d never pay him 10/300, so why didn’t they trade him earlier? When they could get better value. 

They thought that they were still competitive. They were still buying players. 

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, weams said:

I think there is a chance that we could get Tyler Herb and an International player. 

Well, if you want to take a pessimistic view it will be a long winter. 

[weams]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Well, if you want to take a pessimistic view it will be a long winter. 

I thought that was pretty middle of the road as far as possible returns; Pessimistic would be to tender. Pay the arbitration amount.  Then have an injury negate all value. 

[weams]

25 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Well, if you want to take a pessimistic view it will be a long winter. 

I think that the lack of participation in the Hot Stove this off season will make it slow no matter what positive spins are put forth.