Dan Duquette did pretty well with July 2018 trades

[DrungoHazewood]

16 hours ago, Hallas said:

Sure, but do we blame Thrift for Brea in particular?

I think we can blame Thrift for acquiring a mediocre player, but I guess a high K, high-walk guy who you think is 21 has some upside.

[DrungoHazewood]

17 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not sure you got my total point.  I think you are, to some degree, looking at the return through the prism of today's game.  I think guys like the O's traded were more highly valued back in the day.

Perhaps.  it was the height of the PED era, and many oldtimers hadn't gotten around to reading/accepting the findings that MLBers peak around 27, which had been published 15-20 years prior.  Some GMs probably assumed 35-year-old BJ Surhoff would be a really good LFer for many years to come.

As late as 2015-16 my contracts calculator worked very well with no age inputs at all. Meaning that most GMs signed 34-year-olds like they were 27.

[Hallas]

10 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Perhaps.  it was the height of the PED era, and many oldtimers hadn't gotten around to reading/accepting the findings that MLBers peak around 27, which had been published 15-20 years prior.  Some GMs probably assumed 35-year-old BJ Surhoff would be a really good LFer for many years to come.

As late as 2015-16 my contracts calculator worked very well with no age inputs at all. Meaning that most GMs signed 34-year-olds like they were 27.

A bit of a tangent, but I get the sense that GMs are over-prioritizing youth to the extent that some 28-30 year olds with some quality mileage left can be had for a bit of a bargain, especially in the trade market.

[Redskins Rick]

12 hours ago, Hallas said:

A bit of a tangent, but I get the sense that GMs are over-prioritizing youth to the extent that some 28-30 year olds with some quality mileage left can be had for a bit of a bargain, especially in the trade market.

GM like copying others GM actions. 1 GM dumster drives, then many others quickly follow as they see it a way to put cheap bodies on their roster.

[sportsfan8703]

@Luke-OH or anyone else, what’s your take on these two guys,

3B Encarnacion(21) .648 OPS in Delmarva

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=encarn000jea

SS Jean Carmona(19) .561 OPS in Aberdeen in only 25 games.

 https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=carmon000jea

 

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

@Luke-OH or anyone else, what’s your take on these two guys,

3B Encarnacion(21) .648 OPS in Delmarva

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=encarn000jea

SS Jean Carmona(19) .561 OPS in Aberdeen in only 25 games.

 https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=carmon000jea

Encarnacion definitely looks the part, you see him on a good day and I wouldn't blame anyone thinking he's a top 10 prospect in the system. There are a bunch of above average tools and good bat speed. It's the skills part of baseball that is holding him back. His footwork can get wonky at 3B and is the cause of most of his errors, but it is improved and I think he'll be an average glove there eventually. The big issue is a poor approach and terrible pitch recognition. He's a total guess hitter, he can hit spin if he's sitting on it, but it's a total guess style, he doesn't adjust or waste pitches and sometimes he gets caught in between which is even worse. I'm concerned that those are things that don't usually improve out of nowhere. But the ceiling is still average to above average regular, but it's a really low probability outcome and the floor is not making it out of AA. 

Carmona looked good at 2B the few games I watched and he still has quick hands and good bat speed, but the swing mechanics are still a mess. He's rarely loaded and ready to attack on time which leads to weak contact and rolling over on pitches frequently. I'm not sure why he played so sparingly, so it's possible an injury hindered his performance. The ceiling isn't quite as high as Encarnacion, but his issues are more fixable IMO. 

These guys have pretty serious flaws and neither fits the definition of hitterish, so they'll be a good test of the Orioles new player development machine, it'd be a good sign if they could get one of these two straightened out. 

[interloper]

On 10/16/2019 at 8:10 PM, Hallas said:

A bit of a tangent, but I get the sense that GMs are over-prioritizing youth to the extent that some 28-30 year olds with some quality mileage left can be had for a bit of a bargain, especially in the trade market.

Duquette built a playoff team with guys like this. Miguel Gonzalez, Nate McLouth, Delmon Young, Brad Brach, etc. 

[Redskins Rick]

2 hours ago, interloper said:

Duquette built a playoff team with guys like this. Miguel Gonzalez, Nate McLouth, Delmon Young, Brad Brach, etc. 

IMO

Duquette added players to a team Andy had started building, Tillman, Jones, Hardy, etc

The combination of actions of both of their part, is the reason, they were the best record for 5 years in the AL.

 

[sportsfan8703]

On 10/7/2019 at 10:50 AM, wildcard said:

The full story is not written yet but the progress in 2019 with good for the O's with the players in these trades.

Machado for Diaz, Kremer, Bannon, Pop, (Valera DFA’d)

Schoop for Villar, Ortiz,  Carmona - O’s Won the trade

Britton - Carroll, Tate, Rogers

Gausman/O’Day - Phillips, Cumberland, Zimmerman,  Encarnacion, Saved 18m - O’s Won the trade  on cost savings.   

1. Villar  - 4 WAR makes him better than Schoop

2. Diaz -  O's #5 prospect. Everyday RF ETA 2nd half 2020

3. Kremer - O's #8 prospect. Starter ETA 2nd half 2020

4.  Carroll - RP Will compete for bullpen spot on OD 2020

5. Phillips - RP  Will compete for bullpen spot in 2020

6.   Bannon 2B/3B  - O's #23 prospect.  ETA late 2020/or 2021

7.  Pop  RP  O's #25 prospect.  2nd half 2021 after recovery for TJ surgery

8. Tate - RP -   O's # 26 prospect.  ETA sometime in 2020

9. Cumberland  BUC  -  O's #29 prospect. Will compete for back up catcher spot in 2021

10.  Zimmerman SP/RP  - Probably RP 2021

11. Ortiz -  SP/RP  ETA 2021 if he makes it to the majors.

12. Rogers - Probably DFA’d and outrighted to Tides where he will try to turn things around as a RP.

13.Encarnacion - O's #28 prospect?

14. Carmona - ?

Norfolk rotation of Akin, Kremer, Lowther, Wells and Baumann  will push Zimmerman,  Ortiz and Rogers to relief until some of them make the majors.

Sorry @wildcard great breakdown, but DD really let us all down. I know I was optimistic too. These deals really set us back, or at least made the road to recovery longer. 

[Sports Guy]

6 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Sorry @wildcard great breakdown, but DD really let us all down. I know I was optimistic too. These deals really set us back, or at least made the road to recovery longer. 

 No they didn’t 

[Bahama O's Fan]

What's the update on all of these players now?

[wildcard]

6 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Sorry @wildcard great breakdown, but DD really let us all down. I know I was optimistic too. These deals really set us back, or at least made the road to recovery longer. 

Villar was O's MVP in 2019.

Kremer has a decent chance to be a major league starter.

Tate is doing pretty well has a member of the O's pen. He is just on the 10  day IL right now.

Pop has a decent chance to be a major league closer.  Not Dan's fault that Elias didn't protect him.

Zimmerman may be a long reliever/spot starter.

Cumberland  is hitting well at AAA and may be a DH/backup catcher

Diaz is only 24 and could still be a major league outfielder.

Not bad for 2 months of Manny and Britton,  a year and a half for Schoop and Gausman and that O'Day was paid a years salary by the Braves  for 5.1 IP in 2019.

[sportsfan8703]

We’re coming up on three years after these deadline deals.  It is an accurate time to assess these trades. Here is a list of the trades made near the deadline that year,

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sportingnews.com/us/amp/mlb/news/mlb-trades-news-rumors-trade-deadline-yankees-braves-dodgers-cubs-red-sox/zpm9eicioqzl1l0r90ftoio3a

- We traded a top 10 player in the game(Machado) to a WS contender. 
 

- We traded a relief pitcher(Britton) that was coming off injury, but even then was looked as a coup for the post season. His “down” year of a 3.10 ERA was 2018. 
 

- We traded Gausman that was arguably the 2nd best SP available behind Archer. Huge drop off but darn. They got back Meadows, Glasnow, and Baz. 
 

- We also unloaded valuable contributors in Brach and Schoop. 
 

I honestly don’t believe that DD got the best prospect return for Gausman. He saved ownership money with the O’day trade. However, we cannot gloss over the fact that we only got back one OF(Diaz), two fringe SP(Kremer, Zimmerman), and two relievers(Pop, Tate).  Mentioning Cumberland as an MLB’er is laughable, he barely plays 60 games a year in the minors.  Bannon doesn’t even have the track record that Stevie Wilkerson does.

DD saved ownership money, but really left us in a thought spot.

These deadline deals were a failure. It’s set back our rebuild by 1-2 years at least. 

 

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We’re coming up on three years after these deadline deals.  It is an accurate time to assess these trades. Here is a list of the trades made near the deadline that year,

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sportingnews.com/us/amp/mlb/news/mlb-trades-news-rumors-trade-deadline-yankees-braves-dodgers-cubs-red-sox/zpm9eicioqzl1l0r90ftoio3a

- We traded a top 10 player in the game(Machado) to a WS contender. 
 

- We traded a relief pitcher(Britton) that was coming off injury, but even then was looked as a coup for the post season. His “down” year of a 3.10 ERA was 2018. 
 

- We traded Gausman that was arguably the 2nd best SP available behind Archer. Huge drop off but darn. They got back Meadows, Glasnow, and Baz. 
 

- We also unloaded valuable contributors in Brach and Schoop. 
 

I honestly don’t believe that DD got the best prospect return for Gausman. He saved ownership money with the O’day trade. However, we cannot gloss over the fact that we only got back one OF(Diaz), two fringe SP(Kremer, Zimmerman), and two relievers(Pop, Tate).  Mentioning Cumberland as an MLB’er is laughable, he barely plays 60 games a year in the minors.  Bannon doesn’t even have the track record that Stevie Wilkerson does.

DD saved ownership money, but really left us in a thought spot.

These deadline deals were a failure. It’s set back our rebuild by 1-2 years at least. 

 

You are wrong.

[spiritof66]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We’re coming up on three years after these deadline deals.  It is an accurate time to assess these trades. Here is a list of the trades made near the deadline that year,

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sportingnews.com/us/amp/mlb/news/mlb-trades-news-rumors-trade-deadline-yankees-braves-dodgers-cubs-red-sox/zpm9eicioqzl1l0r90ftoio3a

- We traded a top 10 player in the game(Machado) to a WS contender. 
 

- We traded a relief pitcher(Britton) that was coming off injury, but even then was looked as a coup for the post season. His “down” year of a 3.10 ERA was 2018. 
 

- We traded Gausman that was arguably the 2nd best SP available behind Archer. Huge drop off but darn. They got back Meadows, Glasnow, and Baz. 
 

- We also unloaded valuable contributors in Brach and Schoop. 
 

I honestly don’t believe that DD got the best prospect return for Gausman. He saved ownership money with the O’day trade. However, we cannot gloss over the fact that we only got back one OF(Diaz), two fringe SP(Kremer, Zimmerman), and two relievers(Pop, Tate).  Mentioning Cumberland as an MLB’er is laughable, he barely plays 60 games a year in the minors.  Bannon doesn’t even have the track record that Stevie Wilkerson does.

DD saved ownership money, but really left us in a thought spot.

These deadline deals were a failure. It’s set back our rebuild by 1-2 years at least. 

 

Part of the reason I find these sorts of deals hard to evaluate is my lack of information about what the general manager was told to do. Did ownership tell Duquette that he absolutely had to dump salary (and if so in some minimum amount), or that it was important that he dump salary, or that it would be nice if he could dump salary but that getting back talent was the principal goal, or not to be concerned about dumping salary, or something else? And was there a limit on the salaries (or the years of team control) on the players who came back? Were there other constraints imposed on Duquette?

And I have no way to know how other teams valued the guys the Orioles traded. I am sure that Kevin Gausman had less trade value than Chris Archer, but beyond that I just don't know. 

If you don't know this stuff -- and I don't -- it's hard to know to evaluate, other than to say that as of now the returns look underwhelming.