Dan Duquette did pretty well with July 2018 trades

[Camden_yardbird]

3 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

Part of the reason I find these sorts of deals hard to evaluate is my lack of information about what the general manager was told to do. Did ownership tell Duquette that he absolutely had to dump salary (and if so in some minimum amount), or that it was important that he dump salary, or that it would be nice if he could dump salary but that getting back talent was the principal goal, or not to be concerned about dumping salary, or something else? And was there a limit on the salaries (or the years of team control) on the players who came back? Were there other constraints imposed on Duquette?

And I have no way to know how other teams valued the guys the Orioles traded. I am sure that Kevin Gausman had less trade value than Chris Archer, but beyond that I just don't know. 

If you don't know this stuff -- and I don't -- it's hard to know to evaluate, other than to say that as of now the returns look underwhelming.

I mean we could imagine 1000 unknown variables as excuses for bad trades or we could just accept they were bad trades.

[joelala]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

You are wrong.

I generally agree with your takes, but I don’t see how these deals haven’t set us back. There is a very very real chance we didn’t get a single MLB replacement level player out of the deals. Now if you’re arguing the issue is we that we are waited too long to sell, I agree. But the utterly lackluster return has set us back. 

[ThomasTomasz]

3 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

Part of the reason I find these sorts of deals hard to evaluate is my lack of information about what the general manager was told to do. Did ownership tell Duquette that he absolutely had to dump salary (and if so in some minimum amount), or that it was important that he dump salary, or that it would be nice if he could dump salary but that getting back talent was the principal goal, or not to be concerned about dumping salary, or something else? And was there a limit on the salaries (or the years of team control) on the players who came back? Were there other constraints imposed on Duquette?

And I have no way to know how other teams valued the guys the Orioles traded. I am sure that Kevin Gausman had less trade value than Chris Archer, but beyond that I just don't know. 

If you don't know this stuff -- and I don't -- it's hard to know to evaluate, other than to say that as of now the returns look underwhelming.

The Pirates made an awful, awful trade for Archer. Glasnow was also in a place where Arrieta was when he was with the Orioles. Him going to an organization like the Rays was the best possible scenario. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, joelala said:

I generally agree with your takes, but I don’t see how these deals haven’t set us back. There is a very very real chance we didn’t get a single MLB replacement level player out of the deals. Now if you’re arguing the issue is we that we are waited too long to sell, I agree. But the utterly lackluster return has set us back. 

The decision to not trade them a few years before set us back.

The return on those trades hasn’t set us back.  If they were, in theory, the best deals we could get, there is no setting us back.

You traded guys that were about to be FAs.  Those aren’t usually franchise altering dealS and there is still a ton of time to see if they bring us back valuable players.

Its an awful take to on some many levels and even if none of these guys ever amount to anything, they still didn’t set us back.  The alternative was trade them for less or gain a comp pick.  Either of those scenarios likely isn’t helping us either.

[joelala]

39 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The decision to not trade them a few years before set us back.

The return on those trades hasn’t set us back.  If they were, in theory, the best deals we could get, there is no setting us back.

You traded guys that were about to be FAs.  Those aren’t usually franchise altering dealS and there is still a ton of time to see if they bring us back valuable players.

Its an awful take to on some many levels and even if none of these guys ever amount to anything, they still didn’t set us back.  The alternative was trade them for less or gain a comp pick.  Either of those scenarios likely isn’t helping us either.

Agree, the decision not to trade them when we should have has set us back in a big way. And I don’t fault Dan for that decision. 

[Yossarian]

On 10/7/2019 at 7:50 AM, wildcard said:

The full story is not written yet but the progress in 2019 with good for the O's with the players in these trades.

Machado for Diaz, Kremer, Bannon, Pop, (Valera DFA’d)

Schoop for Villar, Ortiz,  Carmona - O’s Won the trade

Britton - Carroll, Tate, Rogers

Gausman/O’Day - Phillips, Cumberland, Zimmerman,  Encarnacion, Saved 18m - O’s Won the trade  on cost savings.   

1. Villar  - 4 WAR makes him better than Schoop

2. Diaz -  O's #5 prospect. Everyday RF ETA 2nd half 2020

3. Kremer - O's #8 prospect. Starter ETA 2nd half 2020

4.  Carroll - RP Will compete for bullpen spot on OD 2020

5. Phillips - RP  Will compete for bullpen spot in 2020

6.   Bannon 2B/3B  - O's #23 prospect.  ETA late 2020/or 2021

7.  Pop  RP  O's #25 prospect.  2nd half 2021 after recovery for TJ surgery

8. Tate - RP -   O's # 26 prospect.  ETA sometime in 2020

9. Cumberland  BUC  -  O's #29 prospect. Will compete for back up catcher spot in 2021

10.  Zimmerman SP/RP  - Probably RP 2021

11. Ortiz -  SP/RP  ETA 2021 if he makes it to the majors.

12. Rogers - Probably DFA’d and outrighted to Tides where he will try to turn things around as a RP.

13.Encarnacion - O's #28 prospect?

14. Carmona - ?

Norfolk rotation of Akin, Kremer, Lowther, Wells and Baumann  will push Zimmerman,  Ortiz and Rogers to relief until some of them make the majors.

Resurrecting this thread to take another look after 20 months, or so.  It's tough to get a good take where no minor league baseball was played last year and very little player development happened.

Gausman is now the ace on one of the best teams in baseball and has an 8-1 record with a 1.5 ERA and a WHIP of 0.77.  He was never going to be in the long-term re-build plans for Baltimore, but it would have been nice to get more for him given his value now.  Zimmerman is still a question mark and maybe the only one of that group that will contribute anything above replacement value.

Kremer is the only one of MLB value (to date) in the Machado trade and he has been mediocre.

We traded away one of the best relief pitchers in baseball for Dillon Tate - one of the meh relief pitchers in baseball.

 

I don't know that I would say Baltimore "won" any of these trades other than dumping salary.  Will any of these guys be on the next good Baltimore team?

 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Yossarian said:

Resurrecting this thread to take another look after 20 months, or so.  It's tough to get a good take where no minor league baseball was played last year and very little player development happened.

Gausman is now the ace on one of the best teams in baseball and has an 8-1 record with a 1.5 ERA and a WHIP of 0.77.  He was never going to be in the long-term re-build plans for Baltimore, but it would have been nice to get more for him given his value now.  Zimmerman is still a question mark and maybe the only one of that group that will contribute anything above replacement value.

Kremer is the only one of MLB value (to date) in the Machado trade and he has been mediocre.

We traded away one of the best relief pitchers in baseball for Dillon Tate - one of the meh relief pitchers in baseball.

 

I don't know that I would say Baltimore "won" any of these trades other than dumping salary.  Will any of these guys be on the next good Baltimore team?

 

I don’t think we can consider what Gausman would be doing now.   He got waived by the Braves, claimed by the Reds and was a free agent twice since then.  One thing’s for sure - we got more from Gausman than the Braves or Reds did.   

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Yossarian said:

Resurrecting this thread to take another look after 20 months, or so.  It's tough to get a good take where no minor league baseball was played last year and very little player development happened.

Gausman is now the ace on one of the best teams in baseball and has an 8-1 record with a 1.5 ERA and a WHIP of 0.77.  He was never going to be in the long-term re-build plans for Baltimore, but it would have been nice to get more for him given his value now.  Zimmerman is still a question mark and maybe the only one of that group that will contribute anything above replacement value.

Kremer is the only one of MLB value (to date) in the Machado trade and he has been mediocre.

We traded away one of the best relief pitchers in baseball for Dillon Tate - one of the meh relief pitchers in baseball.

 

I don't know that I would say Baltimore "won" any of these trades other than dumping salary.  Will any of these guys be on the next good Baltimore team?

 

Britton wasn’t that good the year we traded him, had injury issues and was a FA after the season.  They got lucky that they could even trade him considering how he was pitching before July.

[HowAboutThat]

2 hours ago, Yossarian said:

 

I don't know that I would say Baltimore "won" any of these trades other than dumping salary.  Will any of these guys be on the next good Baltimore team

No.

[Sports Guy]

The trades were good trades when they were made.

[HowAboutThat]

Whether the trades were “good” or not is really irrelevant. It’s impossible to know whether we could’ve done better under the circumstances, what we do know is that none of the players that we acquired in those trades is currently helping the club. Some of them may help in the future but they haven’t yet, so the real question is whether the trades have help the team, and the answer to that is an undeniable “no.”

The money savings helped the organization But as fans we don’t care about that.

[El_Duderino]

Thanks for resurrecting this. It’s much worse than I expected. 

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, Philip said:

Whether the trades were “good” or not is really irrelevant. It’s impossible to know whether we could’ve done better under the circumstances, what we do know is that none of the players that we acquired in those trades is currently helping the club. Some of them may help in the future but they haven’t yet, so the real question is whether the trades have help the team, and the answer to that is an undeniable “no.”

The money savings helped the organization But as fans we don’t care about that.

Kremer pitched well last year, that helped the team.  He has potential to be decent and wasn’t bad in his last start.
 

Tate has shown flashes at times and has helped the team.

Zimmerman is currently helping the team.

So no, it’s not undeniable.  

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Kremer pitched well last year, that helped the team.  He has potential to be decent and wasn’t bad in his last start.
 

Tate has shown flashes at times and has helped the team.

Zimmerman is currently helping the team.

So no, it’s not undeniable.  

Agreed.   We didn’t time these trades well and there’s only so much you’re going to get.   Here’s what the guys we traded were worth during the remaining period of team control after they were traded:

Gausman 1.7 rWAR (but 1.5 of that was after he was waived by the Braves, including 1.3 rWAR after the Reds released him.  For that he was paid $20.2 mm.

Schoop 1.6 rWAR (all of which was after he was released by the Brewers), for which he was paid $10.3 mm.

Machado 2.5 rWAR, for which he was paid  $5.4 mm.

Britton 0.3 rWAR, for which he was paid $4 mm.

O’Day 0.2 rWAR, for which he was paid $12 mm.

So in essence, we gave up 6.3 rWAR and avoided paying $51.9 mm in salary to those players.   In exchange we got:

Villar who provided 6.1 rWAR to us at a cost of $5.7 mm.  

Zimmermann who has provided 0.5 rWAR so far at a cost of about $200 k.  5.6 years of service remaining.

Tate who has been worth 0.2 rWAR so far at a cost of about $400 k.  4.6 years of service remaining.

Kremer who’s been worth -0.5 rWAR at a cost of about $200 k.   5.6 years of service remaining.

Ortiz who was worth -0.4 rWAR for about $100 k.   He’s been released.

Valera who was worth 0.1 rWAR for us at a cost of $100 k.

Carroll, who has been worth -0.9 rWAR at a cost of  $200 k.

Diaz, Bannon and Carmona who are still in the organization.

Pop who was lost in the Rule 5 draft.

Encarnacion, who was released before reaching the majors.

So far, that’s 5.1 rWAR at a cost of about 6.9 mm.

So, if the players remaining in our org never played another game, we’d be down about 1.2 rWAR while saving $45 mm.   But I expect to continue to receive value from Zimmermann and Tate, I think Kremer ends up in the plus column, and I hope we’ll get some value from Diaz one of these days.   I’m not counting on Bannon or Carmona for anything and if we released Carroll tomorrow I’d be fine with it, though he’s pitched well at Norfolk recently.

Overall, I’m not turning cartwheels, but the return wasn’t awful considering the circumstances