Orioles #16 Prospect Darell Hernaiz - SS

[sportsfan8703]

5 minutes ago, WalkWithElias said:

This seems high to me given some of the players still left on the board that have much higher floors. The Most Likely Role being Utility alone seems ambitious. The Most Likely Role for a teenager in the GCL drafted in the 5th round is stalling in Delmarva. Based on reports he does have the range and arm to stick at shortstop and does not have a body that projects him to outgrow the position, so an everyday starting shortstop is an upside that few in the system possess. Still don't see him over Adam Hall. 

I can see why he's ranked high, and I think we're going to be disappointed that Hall is likely only a 2B.  Hernaiz had 17 BB and only 26 BB.  .371 OBP.  I'm assuming Hernaiz starts in Aberdeen next year?  

[WalkWithElias]

6 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I can see why he's ranked high, and I think we're going to be disappointed that Hall is likely only a 2B.  Hernaiz had 17 BB and only 26 BB.  .371 OBP.  I'm assuming Hernaiz starts in Aberdeen next year?  

I'm not going to take much from a walkrate in the GCL. Pretty sure I remember someone on here pointing out that walkrates can be really high because, well, the pitchers aren't very good. It's better to show patience than not, but a lot of walks in GCL doesn't necessary demonstrate plate discipline. 

I won't be disappointed if Hall ends up a 2B if he ends up a ML caliber 2B. ML caliber defensive shortstops are hard to come by. I never get my hopes up for one unless they've proven it in the upper levels of the minors or we drafted someone very high with that expectation. 

[glenn__davis]

41 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I like that he's got a rocket strapped to him in the rankings.  I kind of picked up on that with the chatter recently, but I don't see how he could rank over a guy like Adam Hall.  Hall had about as good a year as anyone could've hoped for in Delmarva as a young 20 year old.  Maybe Hall can't stick at SS???

Hall seems to have limited power and limited expected room for power.  Hernaiz hit 2 HRs as a SS in the GCL - might not seem like a lot but there aren't a lot of HRs hit there and he was largely playing as a 17 year old.  5 SB with no CS shows some smarts on the basepaths.  This is of course extrapolating info from VERY limited data.  I think Hall is the safer bet at this point, I just really like the limited data we have from Hernaiz.

[sportsfan8703]

13 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

Hall seems to have limited power and limited expected room for power.  Hernaiz hit 2 HRs as a SS in the GCL - might not seem like a lot but there aren't a lot of HRs hit there and he was largely playing as a 17 year old.  5 SB with no CS shows some smarts on the basepaths.  This is of course extrapolating info from VERY limited data.  I think Hall is the safer bet at this point, I just really like the limited data we have from Hernaiz.

It's great that the scouting reports are high on Hernaiz, but ranking him over Hall is obviously going to start a Hall vs. Hernaiz debate.  I guess we'll just have to wait till Hall's ranking comes out to read why. My guess are that his strikeouts, and question marks over if he can remain at SS, are the two big concerns.  

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, weams said:

Anyone have a response to this placement?

Why is he ranked high?

1. Can he stick at short? Looks like it.
2. Does he have another tool? Yes, speed.
3. How is his plate approach? By first impression, very good. Walked a lot and carried a high OBP.
4. How is the hit tool? This is the question. First impressions were good, but what does a month in the GCL really mean? 

Tony and Luke were clear that they need to see him to really get a sense, but I understand inflating a guy who looks like he has a fair chance to profile as a future ML starting SS. 

[Hazmat]

Is Hernaiz seen now about how Jean Carmona was viewed before this past year?  I'd be interested in a comparison between the two.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, WalkWithElias said:

This seems high to me given some of the players still left on the board that have much higher floors. The Most Likely Role being Utility alone seems ambitious. The Most Likely Role for a teenager in the GCL drafted in the 5th round is stalling in Delmarva. Based on reports he does have the range and arm to stick at shortstop and does not have a body that projects him to outgrow the position, so an everyday starting shortstop is an upside that few in the system possess. Still don't see him over Adam Hall. 

This one was all about ceiling. Of the guys left, we felt he had the best ceiling but of course the risk is very here. He could be in the top ten or out of the rankings after next year. This is where i use my, ""If I can only have one guy system" and I'd rather have a guy with everyday regular upside over utility/backup/reliever profiles.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, WalkWithElias said:

I'm not going to take much from a walkrate in the GCL. Pretty sure I remember someone on here pointing out that walkrates can be really high because, well, the pitchers aren't very good. It's better to show patience than not, but a lot of walks in GCL doesn't necessary demonstrate plate discipline. 

I won't be disappointed if Hall ends up a 2B if he ends up a ML caliber 2B. ML caliber defensive shortstops are hard to come by. I never get my hopes up for one unless they've proven it in the upper levels of the minors or we drafted someone very high with that expectation. 

I certainly profile Hall as a 2B or utility guy. I don't see him sticking as an everyday SS defensively as the arm is a bit short and he doesn't have that fluid, quick twitch athleticism that you prefer to have out at SS.

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, Hazmat said:

Is Hernaiz seen now about how Jean Carmona was viewed before this past year?  I'd be interested in a comparison between the two.

Carmona was a figment of the scouting reports prior to arriving at Aberdeen last year. While still very young, he did not get very good reviews from Orioles personnel and scouts last year and it's was pretty apparent by how the new regime treated him with playing time that they are less enamored with him as well.

[sportsfan8703]

29 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

This one was all about ceiling. Of the guys left, we felt he had the best ceiling but of course the risk is very here. He could be in the top ten or out of the rankings after next year. This is where i use my, ""If I can only have one guy system" and I'd rather have a guy with everyday regular upside over utility/backup/reliever profiles.

I went back and re-read the draft thread on Hernaiz,

He looks like a big dude for only 17, especially on that video clip.  I like the high ceiling talk  I just didn't realize Hall's ceiling, as a 2nd rd pick, was limited.  

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, WalkWithElias said:

I'm not going to take much from a walkrate in the GCL. Pretty sure I remember someone on here pointing out that walkrates can be really high because, well, the pitchers aren't very good. It's better to show patience than not, but a lot of walks in GCL doesn't necessary demonstrate plate discipline. 

Correct.    The pitchers in the GCL averaged 4.2 BB/9 last season, which for the hitters resulted in a BA/OBP spread of 96 points.   Hernaiz’s spread of 108 points is a little higher than league average, but not crazy high for that league.   
 

I look forward to seeing how he does against more advanced competition.   It will be interesting to see if he gets placed in Delmarva or Aberdeen.   Keep in mind that the O’s also have their 2019 fourth rounder Joey Ortiz and Jean Carmona (acquired in the Schoop trade), both of whom played at Aberdeen last summer, though neither hit much there.    And, they may want to keep Gunnar Henderson at SS for now, even if they think he’ll eventually outgrow the position.   

[Aristotelian]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I like that he's got a rocket strapped to him in the rankings.  I kind of picked up on that with the chatter recently, but I don't see how he could rank over a guy like Adam Hall.  Hall had about as good a year as anyone could've hoped for in Delmarva as a young 20 year old.  Maybe Hall can't stick at SS???

That was my thinking, too. Hall was a higher pick and has already had some success through A. Even Hall he is not a SS, it doesn't sound like Henaiz is either (45 arm?). Will be curious to hear the report on Hall. I wonder if we have a possible Mountcastle issue with him?

[LookinUp]

33 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

That was my thinking, too. Hall was a higher pick and has already had some success through A. Even Hall he is not a SS, it doesn't sound like Henaiz is either (45 arm?). Will be curious to hear the report on Hall. I wonder if we have a possible Mountcastle issue with him?

We'll see. As Glenn Davis said above, I think he also doesn't project for a ton of power, so his offensive upside is somewhat limited and he's more of a known entity so there's fewer googly eyes when people speak, lol.

[Can_of_corn]

4 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

Hall seems to have limited power and limited expected room for power.  Hernaiz hit 2 HRs as a SS in the GCL - might not seem like a lot but there aren't a lot of HRs hit there and he was largely playing as a 17 year old.  5 SB with no CS shows some smarts on the basepaths.  This is of course extrapolating info from VERY limited data.  I think Hall is the safer bet at this point, I just really like the limited data we have from Hernaiz.

Pretty sure this is it.  Hall is looking like a second baseman without enough power to keep pitchers honest.

[7Mo]

I think this is the concern for Hall, taken from an old Frobby post:

Notes
Hall has been scorching since late last year. He slashed .378/.441/.500 in August and is at .365/.467/.429 so far this season. He’s continued to steal bases like he did late last summer, too. Of his 22 steals last year, 15 came in August. Hall has seven bags in 16 games so far in 2019. He’s a slash and dash type of hitter and that style of play works best against bad, lower-level defenses, which is part of why he’s got a .523 BABIP right now. That’s got to come down, but this is a strong start.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/daily-prospect-notes-4-25-19/