Will Elias be able to improve the O's starting pitching this off season?

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, jerios55 said:

So I read somewhere (I've been all over the webs so I don't have a link)

What would be a level people would be ok with a Cashner return?  Say he signed 4 mill, with a bunch of starts/ IP incentives (incentives similar to original O's contract). 

With the big question marks on the team and obviously we won't go for big names.  He wanted to stay here and could sign at a discount.  I know it's not about winning this year, but a level of stability to essentially replace Bundy.  Wouldn't go out of my way to re-sign him, but if he hits "O's FA $$ levels" they could certainly do worse.

Means, Cobb (?? can we really write him in...), Wojo, Cashner, Carousel of Fantastic Waiver Riders?  That's a high 2021 pick starting 5 right there.

I think we got real lucky last year to just be able to get anything for Cashner.  I'd like to think we've realized that and go in a different direction.  We can offer two FA SP 30 starts next year.  We're not the best rebound situation because of lots of reasons, but there's only so many starting gigs in the MLB.  

[wildcard]

8 hours ago, jerios55 said:

So I read somewhere (I've been all over the webs so I don't have a link)

What would be a level people would be ok with a Cashner return?  Say he signed 4 mill, with a bunch of starts/ IP incentives (incentives similar to original O's contract). 

With the big question marks on the team and obviously we won't go for big names.  He wanted to stay here and could sign at a discount.  I know it's not about winning this year, but a level of stability to essentially replace Bundy.  Wouldn't go out of my way to re-sign him, but if he hits "O's FA $$ levels" they could certainly do worse.

Means, Cobb (?? can we really write him in...), Wojo, Cashner, Carousel of Fantastic Waiver Riders?  That's a high 2021 pick starting 5 right there.

JMO but I doubt the O's spend more than 2.5m on any FA  this off season.

[Camden_yardbird]

22 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

No, it's not that.  It''s the notion that people (wildcard) seem to bank on the idea that it's a recipe for success.  And he ignored the point (as usual) that it's a low hit rate.  My initial point is that for every Means you get, there are 8-10 other types that just don't work out.  Our pitching was historically terrible for a reason last year.  The idea that Elias and Sig are going to conjure up more Means types this year is silly. 

I agree that if Means can maintain what he did last year and they an coax another Means type performance out of some quad-A/filler type, that's a step in the right direction.  However to think that it'll happen for sure is foolish.  I think Elias and Sig would be the first to admit that.  They can find some guys that have positive attributes that they might be able to work with but I think that's all they'd tell you.

No championship series roster is made up of 25 all stars.  Some think that's neccessary.  But of the 100 guys on championship rosters last year less than 10% were means types finds.  

If you want to build a championship roster it's going to cost money (~$147 million on average over the last ten years.)

That's why I understand breaking down the roster and getting rid of bad contracts while building from the ground up.  But at the Orioles level of payroll allocation this year, its more about saving money (or if your cynical making money) than anything else.

The Orioles could easily pay some money for some flippable free agents, its fine every year and it's a model several mid market teams use.

[Tx Oriole]

On 12/8/2019 at 11:30 AM, 7Mo said:

Do you think Elias is NOT looking for the best available hidden gems?

Do you agree he's only going to offer minimal money to said gems?

He is somewhat handcuffed by the Angelos boys. I think he will do the best he can. IMO 

[Going Underground]

From Iron Mike:

Elias said that a group of minor league pitchers, including left-hander Keegan Akin, right-hander Dean Kremer and left-hander Bruce Zimmermann (Loyola Blakefield), could all compete for starting rotation spots in 2020, with Akin a candidate to break camp with the team.

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-triple-a-pitchers-20191210-ak7jm22e3be6vejogqaq3qdbe4-story.html

[weams]

17 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think we got real lucky last year to just be able to get anything for Cashner.  I'd like to think we've realized that and go in a different direction.  We can offer two FA SP 30 starts next year.  We're not the best rebound situation because of lots of reasons, but there's only so many starting gigs in the MLB.  

The club did not really care for Cashner. And he's not 600K.

[weams]

11 hours ago, Tx Oriole said:

He is somewhat handcuffed by the Angelos boys. I think he will do the best he can. IMO 

How so? Have they been meddling and I don't know it?  How old are they anyway?

[Aglets]

Curious what does "improve" mean in this context?

2018:   We had the worst ERA in the American League (5.18 ERA).    Worst starting rotation (5.48 ERA)

2019:   We had the worst ERA in the American League again (5.59 ERA).  But only the 2nd worst rotation (5.57).

I'm not really expecting much meaningful improvement in 2020 in this area.   Perhaps by '21.   If the new kids come up and there aren't too many growing pains.

OK I see in the OP you are asking if Elias can improve on Hess / Eshelman / Blach / Ortiz etc.        Um, probably.   He can probably sign at least one guy with an ERA under 6 for example.   If that is the bar we are setting.

[hoosiers]

I don't really care about the major league SP entering 2020 and don't expect much new investment there between now and OD.

However, I am hopeful that we end 2020 with a good idea of who should be in the rotation entering 2021 and that they get some major league experience this year.

[NCRaven]

If Akin starts in Norfolk, there will be no starters in Baltimore that I consider relevant.  They could bring in some low cost veteran reclamation projects, but I don't expect any signings for pitchers that will be here for more than a year.  Hopefully, by September, Akin, Kremer and Zimmerman will have at least had meaningful auditions and guys like Baumann, Lowther and Wells will have had significant time in AAA.

[Redskins Rick]

14 hours ago, Tx Oriole said:

He is somewhat handcuffed by the Angelos boys. I think he will do the best he can. IMO 

Is he?

You have a solid source for that theory?

[NCRaven]

If by handcuffed, you mean that he has been given a budget to adhere to, like almost all GM's in baseball are given by ownership, I guess.  And, really, when do we stop calling 50+ year-old men "boys."

Note:  I admit that having to keep Davis is a bit of a handcuff.

[bobmc]

1 hour ago, hoosiers said:

I don't really care about the major league SP entering 2020 and don't expect much new investment there between now and OD.

However, I am hopeful that we end 2020 with a good idea of who should be in the rotation entering 2021 and that they get some major league experience this year.

Agreed and Elias's statement on investment is telling - after all it is "prospect capital" that we would be spending (per Roch).

“That said, we have inquired on middle infield options and pitching options that can help us stabilize the roster for 2020,” Elias said, “but it’s difficult to line up on some of that when you’re a rebuilding team and you’re not really in the mood to expend prospect capital. So it just take a lot of dialogue.”

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2019/12/elias-on-todays-activity-pitching-givens-rutschman-and-more.html

[Tx Oriole]

3 hours ago, weams said:

How so? Have they been meddling and I don't know it?  How old are they anyway?

Didn’t they cut payroll? Yes they are grown men. Sorry but calling them boys was in no way  meant  in a derogatory way. All I meant was like father like son.

[7Mo]

2 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

Didn’t they cut payroll? Yes they are grown men. Sorry but calling them boys was in no way  meant  in a derogatory way. All I meant was like father like son.

When you say "cut payroll", that sounds like something different than an overall plan to rebuild the organization.

Elias and Mejdal came in with a plan and a part of that is trading MLB assets that are not long term fits. 

To me, that's far different than cutting payroll. But yes, payroll is far, far less than it was. But I haven't seen anything that says ownership ordered that.