How the Orioles could win the World Series next year.

[GuidoSarducci]

Rendon ~$30m

Bumgarner ~$30m

Keuchel ~$20m

Solid top 3 rotation of Bumgarner, Keuchel and Means.   Cobb gets healthy or we find another option.  Rendon and Bumgarner are money in the playoffs. 

Orioles opening day payroll currently stands at ~$60m according to spotrac.  Adding another $80m pushes that to $140m.

Edited December 9, 2019 by GuidoSarducci

[Can_of_corn]

Replace Madbam and Keuchel with Cole and Strasburg and this still won't work.

[Roll Tide]

Even if the Orioles were all in and willing to spend they wouldn't likely get all 3 and the moves made already moved the 2020 needle in the wrong direction 

[UMDTerrapins]

Maybe in a King Ralph-like scenario. Is MLB planning a full league photo shoot?

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, GuidoSarducci said:

Rendon ~$30m

Bumgarner ~$30m

Keuchel ~$20m

Solid top 3 rotation of Bumgarner, Keuchel and Means.   Cobb gets healthy or we find another option.  Rendon and Bumgarner are money in the playoffs. 

Orioles opening day payroll currently stands at ~$60m according to spotrac.  Adding another $80m pushes that to $140m.

Bumgarner had a 3.90 ERA in the NL West last year, and only pitched 21 games in '18.  Keuchel had about a 3.75 ERA the last two years.  Rendon is 29, coming off a 6-win career year.  

These moves take a 50-ish win Oriole team and pushes them to the low 60s in wins.  You still need about 25 more and you've already maxed out payroll.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Even if the Orioles were all in and willing to spend they wouldn't likely get all 3 and the moves made already moved the 2020 needle in the wrong direction 

If 30, 30, and 20 are the going market rates for those players I think you'd have to assume it would take a large premium on top of that to get them to come to a 50-win team that (in this hypothetical) is apparently, inexplicably, doing a 180 and trying to jump 40+ wins in one offseason.

So more than a $140M payroll for '20, still need 20-30 more wins, and have just spent every last dime that was available for fixing the organization long-term.

[DirtyBird]

Can the internets ever get the bandwidth back that was wasted on this thread?

[tntoriole]

If they draft a young ambidextrous guy out of Arkansas to play third base, then develop a righthander who has a fastball and a huge leg kick, have some big guy who eats a lot of BBQ take over at 1b,  and a guy who wants to be a manager play second, and develop this guy who looks like Lurch to catch,  then trade Milt Pappas for.....

[Moose Milligan]

45 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Bumgarner had a 3.90 ERA in the NL West last year, and only pitched 21 games in '18.  Keuchel had about a 3.75 ERA the last two years.  Rendon is 29, coming off a 6-win career year.  

These moves take a 50-ish win Oriole team and pushes them to the low 60s in wins.  You still need about 25 more and you've already maxed out payroll.

What a wet blanket you are.

[UpstateNYfan]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I was expecting the 29 plane crashes theory..

Pretty dark, but it would require only 28 plane crashes, leaving one surviving NL team (maybe the Marlins) to win the WS wouldn't it??

[wildbillhiccup]

5 hours ago, GuidoSarducci said:

Rendon ~$30m

Bumgarner ~$30m

Keuchel ~$20m

Solid top 3 rotation of Bumgarner, Keuchel and Means.   Cobb gets healthy or we find another option.  Rendon and Bumgarner are money in the playoffs. 

Orioles opening day payroll currently stands at ~$60m according to spotrac.  Adding another $80m pushes that to $140m.

You have to assume that Rendon and Bumgarner will both get long term deals. And even Keuchel's probably good enough to land a 2-3 year deal. With that in mind, this post could also have been titled - "How The Orioles Could Handcuff Themselves Financially and Set Themselves Up for Another Decade of Mediocrity"

[Aristotelian]

I like the thinking. You are a couple of years early but IMO your thinking validates the rebuild. If we can build a core of decent players that costs around $40M, then we can get an Ace and another couple of $20M-$30M guys. It is not completely far fetched.

Spend the next 3 years getting to .500 with a $60M payroll with Davis contract expiring. Then you have a .500 team with $60M to spend, and a World Series is not far fetched. Need to get to .500 with the new core first.

[wildbillhiccup]

All kidding aside, I don't think Rendon would be enough to turn this offense around. Teams would just pitch around him and Mancini and take their chances with the other replacement level players in our lineup. I also think Bumgarner and Keuchel are both past their primes and realistically would probably be no. 3 type starters in the AL East. Even if we signed these three I'm not even sure we'd complete for the wildcard spot, let alone the division title. 

I get it, these are frustrating times and I'd like nothing more than to root for the Orioles in the World Series next year, but i just don't think there's any scenario where that happens. We all have to keep our fingers crossed that some of these prospects work out and that this push towards using analytics helps us to discover some diamonds in the rough so we can hopefully contend in a 3-4 years. 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

What a wet blanket you are.

Just imagine Dallas Kuechel pitching in OPACY in front of Richie Martin and a Rule 5 second baseman and Stevie Wilkerson and Trey playing RF.  Caught by Chance Sisco.  I'm sure his ERA would be fine, just fine.

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Just imagine Dallas Kuechel pitching in OPACY in front of Richie Martin and a Rule 5 second baseman and Stevie Wilkerson and Trey playing RF.  Caught by Chance Sisco.  I'm sure his ERA would be fine, just fine.

I thought your theoretical win total seemed a bit low at first. But then you painted me this picture and I said "ugh" out loud.