How the Orioles could win the World Series next year.

[DrungoHazewood]

5 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

All kidding aside, I don't think Rendon would be enough to turn this offense around. Teams would just pitch around him and Mancini and take their chances with the other replacement level players in our lineup. I also think Bumgarner and Keuchel are both past their primes and realistically would probably be no. 3 type starters in the AL East. Even if we signed these three I'm not even sure we'd complete for the wildcard spot, let alone the division title. 

I get it, these are frustrating times and I'd like nothing more than to root for the Orioles in the World Series next year, but i just don't think there's any scenario where that happens. We all have to keep our fingers crossed that some of these prospects work out and that this push towards using analytics helps us to discover some diamonds in the rough so we can hopefully contend in a 3-4 years. 

The 2019 Orioles were about 400 runs behind the playoff contenders.  Even if you're optimistic and think that Rendon, Bumgarner, and Keuchel each improve that by 50 runs the Orioles are still 250 runs behind.  Where would that come from?  

I think the last and only time a team went from .333 ball or worse to winning the pennant was the 1889-90 Louisville Colonels.  They went from 27-111 to 88-44.  But that involved an expansion league stealing a ton of players from other existing teams, Louisville playing in the American Association which was not really on par with the NL, and a context of general chaos in baseball in 1890.  In today's world a gain of 30 wins in a single year is close to the limit you ever see.  30 wins puts the Orioles in the low 80s, and probably less since they've shed ~5 wins with the offseason transactions.

[wildbillhiccup]

3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Even if the Orioles were all in and willing to spend they wouldn't likely get all 3 and the moves made already moved the 2020 needle in the wrong direction 

Trading Villar and Bundy didn't move the needle at all. They were destined for last place with or without them. 

[wildbillhiccup]

8 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The 2019 Orioles were about 400 runs behind the playoff contenders.  Even if you're optimistic and think that Rendon, Bumgarner, and Keuchel each improve that by 50 runs the Orioles are still 250 runs behind.  Where would that come from?  

I think the last and only time a team went from .333 ball or worse to winning the pennant was the 1889-90 Louisville Colonels.  They went from 27-111 to 88-44.  But that involved an expansion league stealing a ton of players from other existing teams, Louisville playing in the American Association which was not really on par with the NL, and a context of general chaos in baseball in 1890.  In today's world a gain of 30 wins in a single year is close to the limit you ever see.  30 wins puts the Orioles in the low 80s, and probably less since they've shed ~5 wins with the offseason transactions.

You're preaching to the choir, my friend. We're all in on the rebuild at this point. There's no amount of free agent signings that can turn a team like this that's so devoid of talent at the MLB level around. It's the youngster or bust. 

[wildbillhiccup]

Just now, wildbillhiccup said:

You're preaching to the choir, my friend. We're all in on the rebuild at this point. There's no amount of free agent signings that can turn a team like this that's so devoid of talent at the MLB level around. It's the youngster or bust. 

*youngsters

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

I like the thinking. You are a couple of years early but IMO your thinking validates the rebuild.
...
Need to get to .500 with the new core first.

Pretty sure I'm agreeing with your post.

I actually like threads like this because they demonstrate just how far away this team really is. I happen to think Drungo is slightly pessimistic (or maybe just incomplete) because he doesn't address potential internal help from Hays, Mountcastle and others, but even with crazy additions, we're probably still 150-200 runs away from where we need to be.

So, yeah, this thread helps demonstrate that a rebuild and new foundation is the way to go. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, UpstateNYfan said:

Pretty dark, but it would require only 28 plane crashes, leaving one surviving NL team (maybe the Marlins) to win the WS wouldn't it??

Even less, the plane holding the Mets could crash into Yankee stadium during a game.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

Pretty sure I'm agreeing with your post.

I actually like threads like this because they demonstrate just how far away this team really is. I happen to think Drungo is slightly pessimistic (or maybe just incomplete) because he doesn't address potential internal help from Hays, Mountcastle and others, but even with crazy additions, we're probably still 150-200 runs away from where we need to be.

So, yeah, this thread helps demonstrate that a rebuild and new foundation is the way to go. 

Exactly. It's too early and I do not think Keuchel and Bumgarner are the answer, but if you could develop a .500 level core with a low payroll, we would have the flexibility to make a couple of big signings to put us over the top. So, I like the OP's way of thinking.

[MongoBoy]

8 hours ago, GuidoSarducci said:

Rendon ~$30m

Bumgarner ~$30m

Keuchel ~$20m

Solid top 3 rotation of Bumgarner, Keuchel and Means.   Cobb gets healthy or we find another option.  Rendon and Bumgarner are money in the playoffs. 

Orioles opening day payroll currently stands at ~$60m according to spotrac.  Adding another $80m pushes that to $140m.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Even less, the plane holding the Mets could crash into Yankee stadium during a game.

If we really wanted to jump-start the rebuild you'll want to wipe out the All Star game.  The big teams would lose four, five, six of their best players, the O's are probably out a single 3-win guy.

[jamalshw]

This is a completely ridiculous thread and the correct answer to How they could win the 2020 World Series is: they can't. There is no way.

That said, i'll play along:

Get bought out by Jeff Bazos who in a fit to prove he can do anything authorizes a $400M payroll.

Orioles sign Anthony Rendon, Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg for $700M total and approximately $95-100M a year, putting the payroll to $160M.

Then, the Orioles still need supporting players so they would also need something like: Didi Gregorius, Daniel Hudson, Steve Cishek, Robinson Chirinos, Cesar Hernandez and maybe an Alex Wood or Julio Teheran.

[GuidoSarducci]

5 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

This is a completely ridiculous thread and the correct answer to How they could win the 2020 World Series is: they can't. There is no way.

That said, i'll play along:

Get bought out by Jeff Bazos who in a fit to prove he can do anything authorizes a $400M payroll.

Orioles sign Anthony Rendon, Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg for $700M total and approximately $95-100M a year, putting the payroll to $160M.

Then, the Orioles still need supporting players so they would also need something like: Didi Gregorius, Daniel Hudson, Steve Cishek, Robinson Chirinos, Cesar Hernandez and maybe an Alex Wood or Julio Teheran.

You're right it would probably take more than those three guys. 

I thought Bumgarner and Keuchel were more within reach because Washington said they can't resign both Rendon and Strasburg and the Nats probably pick Strasburg.  Cole is being targeted by the Yankees who haven't lost a bidding war that I can recall.

A big gamble even if we had the resources.   Even with a Dodgers like budget you'd want to see production out of our young guys before going on a free agency splurge. 

[wildbillhiccup]

13 minutes ago, GuidoSarducci said:

You're right it would probably take more than those three guys. 

I thought Bumgarner and Keuchel were more within reach because Washington said they can't resign both Rendon and Strasburg and the Nats probably pick Strasburg.  Cole is being targeted by the Yankees who haven't lost a bidding war that I can recall.

A big gamble even if we had the resources.   Even with a Dodgers like budget you'd want to see production out of our young guys before going on a free agency splurge. 

Rendon's going to get paid. Either by the Nats, Rangers, or Dodgers. Strasburg is too, it's just a question of where he lands. I think whoever swings and misses on Cole will go after him hard. In general the sign three superstars and round out the rest of the team with scrubs works (sometimes) in the NBA, but not so much in the other major sport's leagues. 

[esmd]

ROTFLOL.....oh wait, you weren't serious were you?!?!?!?!?!

[Just Regular]

FWIW Clay Davenport has the 2020 Orioles at 64 wins in his initial projections (which do catch the Villar and Bundy transactions).

http://www.claydavenport.com/projections/BAL.shtml

Hanser Alberto has a nice forecast, even with Mancini at team leading 2.4 WAR, and he has between 11-19 starts each for Akin/Kremer/Lowther/Baumann to drag the staff up to 162 Games Started.

Royals, Tigers, Mariners, Marlins and Giants all in 65-69 range, so while our 64 is the early favorite for the Kumar Rocker Derby, it is only a slight one.

 

[sportsfan8703]

The real question is do we give Carlos Correa 10/300 to sign here in 2022?