Would you offer Hays or Mountcastle a long term deal now?

[Can_of_corn]

4 hours ago, Philip said:

 No, I stand by what I said, play them, when they have two years before free agency trade them, keep the pipeline moving. I would not have extended trout either. And even under the best circumstances why in the world would you extend Mountcastle? He still doesn’t have a defensive home. We are hoping he will succeed in left field, but he hasn’t yet.

Edit: Well, let me temper my comment a little bit. Once a player proves himself, and extension might be a good idea. Jones and Hardy were worth theirs, Plus there was no one at the time ready to step in and replace them. But they were both proven successes with significant track records, and Hardy did hit pretty well, though his value was his glove. 

So there are exceptions to every rule, but neither Hays nor MC has any kind of a track record to warrant any kind of an extension at this time, and they each have serious red flags. Maybe reconsider the question in three years.

You wouldn't have signed Trout to that 6/144.5M deal?

Good on you for admitting it I guess.

[foxfield]

I think there are a number of factors that come in to play before you can even consider the actual value of Hays or Montcastle.  Making these types of signings would mark the beginning of the Orioles rise back towards competitive baseball.  That does not require a player to be a potential star but it would need to be putting a hold on a couple of guys that you think can be a meaningful part of a successful run.  And that would be a serious break from releasing our best player because we do not want to have to pay him market value.  I do not think the Orioles make that pivot in a matter of a few weeks.  Financially, the Orioles have given every sign they are retrenching and if investing, it's internal and downline.  Making this type of deal would begin a new  phase and there are no indications they are ready to do this quite yet.  

Looking ahead, the Orioles would need to believe the goals on the horizon were visible to them (if not us) before making this type of investment.  This move would be more about stability during a window than about identifying bargains, but as others have noted before, teams have used this to great success.  But we happen to be at the end of a collective bargaining period and changes are expected.  This could  have a large impact on teams like the Orioles.  For example if the next CBA gives raises to players earlier and allows free agency earlier, then making deals like the ones above could look much much better in say 2 years.  On the other hand if the changes are more based on allocating dollars to minor leaguers...unlikely but not out of the question, then maybe there is no advantage to doing this now.

Finally are Hays and Montcastle the guys to do this for?  Honestly, I think both are good players but flawed enough to have questions about whether they can play for 8 years.  I hope so and ultimately I think so.  But I think the Orioles do not do this right now because of timing...not because of talent.  One year from now, in my opinion, the better young players will start to be locked up.  By then the questions on Hays and Montcastle will be different as to their age and as to their performance.  Will a long term deal still be available in a year?   I don't know.  

But again, if it were my call I'd wait, even though I think these are the types of guys you do this deal for....Wishy washy maybe, but that is how I see it.  

[DrungoHazewood]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

You wouldn't have signed Trout to that 6/144.5M deal?

Good on you for admitting it I guess.

Perhaps he's taking a stand on the concept of professional sports.  Or free agency.  We gave free agency a good, long trial.  Maybe it's time to go back to owners decreeing players can only make a salary of $16,000 a year.

[DrungoHazewood]

10 hours ago, Papeete said:

With the current contract of Davis, and the fact that neither Hays nor Montcastle has any real major league experience, the logical answer to this post is NO. End of discussion . . . the position that they may play is irrelevant!

With no deal Mountcastle probably gets something like $500k, $500k, $500k, then $2M, $6M, $10M in arb (total of about $20M), and becomes a free agent at 29 and probably leaves or you sign him to a large free agent contract into his 30s.  If he develops reasonably well.  The free agent deal probably works out poorly.

With a deal he gets 6/24 deal with some decent team options beyond that.  They'd have him for most of his useful career a below-market rates.  Then at 32 you can let him go.

There's some risk, a pretty good shot at reward.  Don't know why we can't discuss it.  And the position... well, that's 75% of the equation.  If Mountcastle was a decent 2B/3B with an .850 OPS he might be a very solid starter or even an all star for years.  If he's a DH with an .850 OPS or a poor LFer he might be average or worse depending on the offensive environment.

[backwardsk]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Perhaps he's taking a stand on the concept of professional sports.  Or free agency.  We gave free agency a good, long trial.  Maybe it's time to go back to owners decreeing players can only make a salary of $16,000 a year.

Most guys on this team would still be overpaid.

[Roll Tide]

I would have both players produce at least marginally for a full season.

 

If Mouncastle were do play a full season in 2020 and be at very least .260/.330/.460 then I would assume he was ready. The last thing you want is to pay him MLB money to be a bench player or in the minors.

For Hayes I'd want to see him fully healthy for a whole season.

[Scalious]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Perhaps he's taking a stand on the concept of professional sports.  Or free agency.  We gave free agency a good, long trial.  Maybe it's time to go back to owners decreeing players can only make a salary of $16,000 a year.

That doesn't work in an controlled entertainment industry. They are not just employees, they are also the consumable product. They have duel value. 

No one would play baseball is MLBers only made 16 grand. You would ruin your product and brand. Tanking your company. Not just your capable workforce.

Edited December 21, 2019 by Scalious

[Scalious]

In an uncontrolled entertainment industry. You can get away with paying people just about nothing and only half to pay for big names. Like Hollywood, but actors have the freedom of choice and can make deals with anyone they want for any lenght of time.

Freedom of player choice from entry doesn't work in sports. You can't build teams if they can decide when to go elsewhere anytime. So they sacrifice choice for stable $$$ for their marginal workers.

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Scalious said:

In an uncontrolled entertainment industry. You can get away with paying people just about nothing and only half to pay for big names. Like Hollywood, but actors have the freedom of choice and can make deals with anyone they want for any lenght of time.

Freedom of player choice from entry doesn't work in sports. You can't build teams if they can decide when to go elsewhere anytime. So they sacrifice choice for stable $$$ for their marginal workers.

Tampa

[Frobby]

I did a little test to try to assess this proposal.   I looked at the top 20 players (In WAR)  who debuted in 2013, to see how much they earned through 2019 (that's a full six years plus the year in which they debuted).   I found that only 6 of those 20 ended up earning more than $24 mm in their first 6+ years including their debut season, though two true stars earned substantially more.    Here are the details, highest to lowest.

1.   Nolan Arenado (6.151 years of service) earned $61.5 mm and was worth 38.7 rWAR.    He was a Super-2, and when he was a year from free agency, signed a 7-year, $260 mm deal that covered his arb-4 and 6 FA seasons.   He was BA's #52 prospect before his debut season.

2.  Anthony Rendon (6.130 years of service) earned $49.4 mm and was worth 27.3 rWAR.   Drafted back in the days when a draftee could sign a major league deal, he signed for 4/$7.2 mm plus a $2.5 mm option for 2015.    He was a Super-2 in 2016.    He became a free agent this offseason and signed for 7/$245 mm.  The no. 6 pick in the 2011 draft, he was BA's no. 30 prospect going into his debut season.

3.  Carlos Martinez (6.073 years of service) earned $28.6 mm and was worth 15.2 rWAR.    After producing 9.0 WAR through his pre-arb years, he signed a 5-year, $51 mm deal that includes 2 FA seasons at $11.7 mm each and club options at $17 and $18.mm.   Originally signed as an amateur free agent, Martinez was BA's no. 38 prospect going into his debut season.

4. Marcell Ozuna (6.124 years of service) earned $26.4 mm and was worth 19.5 rWAR.    Signed as an international free agent, he was BA's no. 75 prospect entering his debut season, narrowly missed Super-2 status and took it year-by-year in arbitration.    He's now a free agent.

5.  Gerrit Cole (6.111 years of service) earned $25.6 mm and was worth 24.0 rWAR.   The no. 1 pick of the 2011 draft, Cole was BA's no. 7 prospect entering his debut season.    He took arbitration year by season and has signed the largest-ever FA contract for a pitcher, 9 years, $324 mm.

6.  Xander Bogaerts (6.042 years of service) earned $25.2 mm and was worth 19.9 rWAR.    Signed as an international free agent, Bogaerts was the BA no. 8 prospect before his debut season.    Before the 2019 season he signed an extension that buys 6 FA seasons at $20 mm each, plus a team option for a 7th season at $20 mm.   He can opt out after 2022.

7.  Juan Lagares (6.160 years of service) earned $23.5 mm and was worth 12.3 rWAR.   Signed as an international free agent, he was not ranked by BA prior to his debut.   A Super-2, Lagares signed a 5-year, $23 mm deal before his last pre-arb season that included a $9.5 mm option for one FA season.     The Mets declined the option.

8.   Christian Yelich (6.069 years of service) earned $22.3 mm and was worth 33.6 rWAR.   Drafted 1:23, Yelich was BA's no. 15 prospect before his debut season.    After his first full season in 2014, he signed an extension that buys out two FA seasons at $12.5 mm and $14 mm, and has a team option for a third FA season at $15 mm ($1.25 mm buyout).

9.  Tanner Roark (6.055 years of service) earned $22.3 mm and was worth 19.5 rWAR.   A 25th round draft pick, Roark was unranked before he debuted at age 26, 306 days.     He took arbitration year by year and was signed to a 2 year deal at $12 mm per season this winter.

10.  Jonathan Schoop (6.027 years of service) earned $21.5 mm and was worth 13.2 rWAR.   Signed as an international free agent, he had been BA's no. 82 prospect in 2012 but was unranked prior to his debut season.    He took arbitration year-by-year, was non-tendered before his final arb season and signed as a free agent for $7.5 mm that year.   He's a free agent again this offseason.

11.  Jackie Bradley Jr. (5.150 years of service) earned $20.3 mm and was worth 15.0 rWAR.    Drafted at 1:40, he was BA's no. 31 prospect entering his debut season.    He shuttled back and forth to the minors a bit over a couple of seasons and became a Super-2 after the 2016 season.     He has taken arbitration year-by-year and has an arb-4 year upcoming.

12.  Sonny Gray (6.061 years of service) earned $19.1 mm and was worth 19.1 rWAR.   Drafted at 1:18, he was BA's no. 65 prospect before the 2012 season but unranked before his debut season.    He went year by year in arbitration and then signed a 3-year extension as a condition of being traded to the Reds that pays him $10 mm/yr for 3 seasons plus a team option at $12 mm.   He also has some pretty significant incentives in the deal.

13.  Corey Dickinson (6.101 years of service) earned $19.0 mm and was worth 13.1 rWAR.   An 8th round pick, he was unranked prior to his debut.   He took arbitration year-by-year and is a free agent.

14.  Keven Kiermaier (5.131 years of service) earned $18.0 mm and was worth 26.2 rWAR,   A 31st rounder, he was unranked prior to his debut.    A Super-2 going into the 2017 season, he signed a 5-year deal that bought out his four arb seasons plus one FA season at $11.2 mm, with team options at $12.2 mm and $13 mm ($2.5 mm buyout on the latter).

15.  James Paxton (5.151 years of service) earned $16.8 mm and was worth 12.8 rWAR.  A 4th round pick, Paxton was BA's no. 87 prospect before his debut season.   A Super-2 in 2017, he has taken arb year-by-year and will be in arb-4 this season.

16.  Kolten Wong (6.045 years of service) earned $15.3 mm and was worth 15.6 rWAR.   Drafted 1:22, Wong was BA's no. 84 prospect before his debut season.    Before his last pre-arb season, he was signed to a 5/$25 mm deal that pays him $10.25 mm for one FA season and contains a team option for another at $12.5 mm with a $1 mm buyout.

17.  Marcus Semien (5.118 years of service) earned $11.1 mm and was worth 20.6 rWAR.   A 6th round pick, he was unranked before his debut season but retained rookie status and was ranked no. 91 by BA entering 2014, then played only part of that year.   He has taken arb year by year and will have his final arb year this year.

18.  Kevin Pillar (5.113 years of service) earned $10.6 mm and was worth $15.6 mm.   A 32nd rounder, he was unranked before his debut season.     He went year-by-year in arbitration and was non-tendered this offseason in what would have been his final arb season.

19.  Jose Ramirez (5.074 years of service) earned $9.0 mm and was worth 25.3 rWAR.   Signed as an international free agent, he was unranked before his debut and bounced around between the majors and minors through 2015 before settling into a full-time major league job in 2016.    After that season, with 2 pre-arb seasons left to go, he signed a 5 year, $26 mm deal that provided team options at $11 mm ($2 mm buyout) and $13 mm.

20.  Jonathan Villar (5.113 years of service) earned $8.9 mm and was worth 12.1 rWAR.   Signed as an international free agent, Villar was unranked going into his debut season.    He has taken arb year-by-year and was traded by the O's this year rather than paying his arb-3 salary.

Mind you, these are the top 20 performers of all 230 players who debuted in 2013.    None were locked up before their major league debut, or even after the end of their debut season.   Yet, only 6 of them earned more than $24 mm in their first 6+ years.    I think the Yelich, Martinez and Ramirez deals tell us that waiting a year or two doesn't cost much compared to offering 6/$24 mm right off the bat to buy off arbitration and get a couple of option years.  So, I'd wait.

Note: My list above excludes Yasiel Puig (20.0 rWAR) and Hyun-jin Ryu (14.8 rWAR), who were signed under different circumstances than the above players, and Jose Fernandez (14.0 rWAR), who died in a boating accident before he reached a big payday.

 

 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Scalious said:

That doesn't work in an controlled entertainment industry. They are not just employees, they are also the consumable product. They have duel value. 

No one would play baseball is MLBers only made 16 grand. You would ruin your product and brand. Tanking your company. Not just your capable workforce.

You mean we don't have a time machine to take us back to 1965?  Huh, coulda sworn I read we did. My bad.

[IPlayGM]

5 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I would have both players produce at least marginally for a full season.

 

If Mouncastle were do play a full season in 2020 and be at very least .260/.330/.460 then I would assume he was ready. The last thing you want is to pay him MLB money to be a bench player or in the minors.

For Hayes I'd want to see him fully healthy for a whole season.

But this is the whole point, if you wait for that, then the proposed contract is no longer available. You sign now for the lower price with the lesser amount of information or you wait and potentially pay much more (or in our case lose the player).

[Philip]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I did a little test to try to assess this proposal.   I looked at the top 20 players (In WAR)  who debuted in 2013, to see how much they earned through 2019 (that's a full six years plus the year in which they debuted).   I found that only 6 of those 20 ended up earning more than $24 mm in their first 6+ years including their debut season, though two true stars earned substantially more.    Here are the details, highest to lowest.

1.   Nolan Arenado (6.151 years of service) earned $61.5 mm and was worth 38.7 rWAR.    He was a Super-2, and when he was a year from free agency, signed a 7-year, $260 mm deal that covered his arb-4 and 6 FA seasons.   He was BA's #52 prospect before his debut season.

2.  Anthony Rendon (6.130 years of service) earned $49.4 mm and was worth 27.3 rWAR.   Drafted back in the days when a draftee could sign a major league deal, he signed for 4/$7.2 mm plus a $2.5 mm option for 2015.    He was a Super-2 in 2016.    He became a free agent this offseason and signed for 7/$245 mm.  The no. 6 pick in the 2011 draft, he was BA's no. 30 prospect going into his debut season.

3.  Carlos Martinez (6.073 years of service) earned $28.6 mm and was worth 15.2 rWAR.    After producing 9.0 WAR through his pre-arb years, he signed a 5-year, $51 mm deal that includes 2 FA seasons at $11.7 mm each and club options at $17 and $18.mm.   Originally signed as an amateur free agent, Martinez was BA's no. 38 prospect going into his debut season.

4. Marcell Ozuna (6.124 years of service) earned $26.4 mm and was worth 19.5 rWAR.    Signed as an international free agent, he was BA's no. 75 prospect entering his debut season, narrowly missed Super-2 status and took it year-by-year in arbitration.    He's now a free agent.

5.  Gerrit Cole (6.111 years of service) earned $25.6 mm and was worth 24.0 rWAR.   The no. 1 pick of the 2011 draft, Cole was BA's no. 7 prospect entering his debut season.    He took arbitration year by season and has signed the largest-ever FA contract for a pitcher, 9 years, $324 mm.

6.  Xander Bogaerts (6.042 years of service) earned $25.2 mm and was worth 19.9 rWAR.    Signed as an international free agent, Bogaerts was the BA no. 8 prospect before his debut season.    Before the 2019 season he signed an extension that buys 6 FA seasons at $20 mm each, plus a team option for a 7th season at $20 mm.   He can opt out after 2022.

7.  Juan Lagares (6.160 years of service) earned $23.5 mm and was worth 12.3 rWAR.   Signed as an international free agent, he was not ranked by BA prior to his debut.   A Super-2, Lagares signed a 5-year, $23 mm deal before his last pre-arb season that included a $9.5 mm option for one FA season.     The Mets declined the option.

8.   Christian Yelich (6.069 years of service) earned $22.3 mm and was worth 33.6 rWAR.   Drafted 1:23, Yelich was BA's no. 15 prospect before his debut season.    After his first full season in 2014, he signed an extension that buys out two FA seasons at $12.5 mm and $14 mm, and has a team option for a third FA season at $15 mm ($1.25 mm buyout).

9.  Tanner Roark (6.055 years of service) earned $22.3 mm and was worth 19.5 rWAR.   A 25th round draft pick, Roark was unranked before he debuted at age 26, 306 days.     He took arbitration year by year and was signed to a 2 year deal at $12 mm per season this winter.

10.  Jonathan Schoop (6.027 years of service) earned $21.5 mm and was worth 13.2 rWAR.   Signed as an international free agent, he had been BA's no. 82 prospect in 2012 but was unranked prior to his debut season.    He took arbitration year-by-year, was non-tendered before his final arb season and signed as a free agent for $7.5 mm that year.   He's a free agent again this offseason.

11.  Jackie Bradley Jr. (5.150 years of service) earned $20.3 mm and was worth 15.0 rWAR.    Drafted at 1:40, he was BA's no. 31 prospect entering his debut season.    He shuttled back and forth to the minors a bit over a couple of seasons and became a Super-2 after the 2016 season.     He has taken arbitration year-by-year and has an arb-4 year upcoming.

12.  Sonny Gray (6.061 years of service) earned $19.1 mm and was worth 19.1 rWAR.   Drafted at 1:18, he was BA's no. 65 prospect before the 2012 season but unranked before his debut season.    He went year by year in arbitration and then signed a 3-year extension as a condition of being traded to the Reds that pays him $10 mm/yr for 3 seasons plus a team option at $12 mm.   He also has some pretty significant incentives in the deal.

13.  Corey Dickinson (6.101 years of service) earned $19.0 mm and was worth 13.1 rWAR.   An 8th round pick, he was unranked prior to his debut.   He took arbitration year-by-year and is a free agent.

14.  Keven Kiermaier (5.131 years of service) earned $18.0 mm and was worth 26.2 rWAR,   A 31st rounder, he was unranked prior to his debut.    A Super-2 going into the 2017 season, he signed a 5-year deal that bought out his four arb seasons plus one FA season at $11.2 mm, with team options at $12.2 mm and $13 mm ($2.5 mm buyout on the latter).

15.  James Paxton (5.151 years of service) earned $16.8 mm and was worth 12.8 rWAR.  A 4th round pick, Paxton was BA's no. 87 prospect before his debut season.   A Super-2 in 2017, he has taken arb year-by-year and will be in arb-4 this season.

16.  Kolten Wong (6.045 years of service) earned $15.3 mm and was worth 15.6 rWAR.   Drafted 1:22, Wong was BA's no. 84 prospect before his debut season.    Before his last pre-arb season, he was signed to a 5/$25 mm deal that pays him $10.25 mm for one FA season and contains a team option for another at $12.5 mm with a $1 mm buyout.

17.  Marcus Semien (5.118 years of service) earned $11.1 mm and was worth 20.6 rWAR.   A 6th round pick, he was unranked before his debut season but retained rookie status and was ranked no. 91 by BA entering 2014, then played only part of that year.   He has taken arb year by year and will have his final arb year this year.

18.  Kevin Pillar (5.113 years of service) earned $10.6 mm and was worth $15.6 mm.   A 32nd rounder, he was unranked before his debut season.     He went year-by-year in arbitration and was non-tendered this offseason in what would have been his final arb season.

19.  Jose Ramirez (5.074 years of service) earned $9.0 mm and was worth 25.3 rWAR.   Signed as an international free agent, he was unranked before his debut and bounced around between the majors and minors through 2015 before settling into a full-time major league job in 2016.    After that season, with 2 pre-arb seasons left to go, he signed a 5 year, $26 mm deal that provided team options at $11 mm ($2 mm buyout) and $13 mm.

20.  Jonathan Villar (5.113 years of service) earned $8.9 mm and was worth 12.1 rWAR.   Signed as an international free agent, Villar was unranked going into his debut season.    He has taken arb year-by-year and was traded by the O's this year rather than paying his arb-3 salary.

Mind you, these are the top 20 performers of all 230 players who debuted in 2013.    None were locked up before their major league debut, or even after the end of their debut season.   Yet, only 6 of them earned more than $24 mm in their first 6+ years.    I think the Yelich, Martinez and Ramirez deals tell us that waiting a year or two doesn't cost much compared to offering 6/$24 mm right off the bat to buy off arbitration and get a couple of option years.  So, I'd wait.

Note: My list above excludes Yasiel Puig (20.0 rWAR) and Hyun-jin Ryu (14.8 rWAR), who were signed under different circumstances than the above players, and Jose Fernandez (14.0 rWAR), who died in a boating accident before he reached a big payday.

 

 

Excellent work, thank you very much for your efforts. As I said, there are exceptions to every rule, but I certainly don’t think either of the guys mentioned should be even considered for an extension at this time, maybe, maybe, maybe in three years. And we can talk then

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, Philip said:

Excellent work, thank you very much for your efforts. As I said, there are exceptions to every rule, but I certainly don’t think either of the guys mentioned should be even considered for an extension at this time, maybe, maybe, maybe in three years. And we can talk then

The balancing act is, the longer you wait, the more expensive the extension becomes.    So you’re looking for the sweet spot on the risk/reward curve.     But at this point we can’t say for certain we’d even want these guys for the next 6 years.    Therefore, we’re definitely not at the sweet spot yet.  

[Roll Tide]

34 minutes ago, IPlayGM said:

But this is the whole point, if you wait for that, then the proposed contract is no longer available. You sign now for the lower price with the lesser amount of information or you wait and potentially pay much more (or in our case lose the player).

Not necessarily... sure teams have what 6 years of control and 3 of those are Pre arb years. 1 year shouldn’t be that big of a deal. The player will be grossly under paid in years 1-4 if they are any good. So after year one you throw 6/24 at them with 8 million or so being upfront money. Plus 2 /12 per year options.
 

That’s a lot of money for a guy that hasn’t cashed in yet. I think most guys still take it