Oscar Colás - Time to Spend Some of That Int'l Money?

[Camden_yardbird]

1 hour ago, weams said:

VVM is older than Yusniel Diaz.  And it appears he can not hit. That's an issue. 

Certainly appears so.  However there could be rust there.  He hadn't really played organized baseball in 2 years.

Mesa Article

The linked article confirms that as well as points to the team making some adjustments in his swing to add power.  Give it 2 months next season before we are saying that signing was a complete bust.

Additionally using him as a reasoning to not sign a new hyped prospect is specious at best.  Its anecdotal and reeks of recency bias.

[Darkhawk]

I want the Orioles to be in on guys like these but oftentimes when we talk about international guys there is this sort of "line in the Sand" that can be a little ridiculous. Most posters have just learned about this guy yesterday but now if we don't sign him it's an indication that we aren't all in on International Spending or that Elias doesn't have complete control.

And maybe those things are true, but if this guy is as talented as we hope, it's also possible that one of the other 29 teams trying to get better, who theoretically have more international operations in place or are places that he feels would be a better fit for him, get him over us. Doesn't mean we didn't do our due diligence, just means we didn't get him. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Okay.  Let me qualify this.  If the choice is spending the remainder of our unspent allowance on him, or letting it lapse, then it's a no brainer.  That's leaving money on the table.  

There are,at this point, no other players we would be spending that money on.

If come the reset of the international bonus pool, I dont care if this guy ends up being Mike Trout or Billy Rowell, I am going to be pissed if we didnt sign him and let that allowance lapse.

If he waits until after the reset that's a different story.

See, I don’t agree with your philosophy.    Just because you have $4.5 mm available to spend doesn’t mean you spend it on an asset you think is really worth only $1 mm.   Let’s say the Orioles think this guy is on the level of Doran Turchin (our 2018 14th round pick).     You don’t toss $4.5 mm at a guy like that just because you can and you have nobody else in the international market to spend it on.     Now if you think the guy is a Kyle Stowers level talent or better, maybe you do.    Stowers only got an $884 k signing bonus, but presumably he would get more in an uncapped market with no slotting.    Not sure he’d be worth $4.5 mm, but maybe.     

[CallMeBrooksie]

3 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Okay.  Let me qualify this.  If the choice is spending the remainder of our unspent allowance on him, or letting it lapse, then it's a no brainer.  That's leaving money on the table.  

There are,at this point, no other players we would be spending that money on.

If come the reset of the international bonus pool, I dont care if this guy ends up being Mike Trout or Billy Rowell, I am going to be pissed if we didnt sign him and let that allowance lapse.

If he waits until after the reset that's a different story.

I think you're misunderstanding how the pool money works.

It's not an allowance given to the O's.. every dollar spent comes from the O's pockets. If they don't spend the rest of their pool, then the O's keep that money.

[Camden_yardbird]

1 hour ago, CallMeBrooksie said:

I think you're misunderstanding how the pool money works.

It's not an allowance given to the O's.. every dollar spent comes from the O's pockets. If they don't spend the rest of their pool, then the O's keep that money.

I get it.  I just think it's dumb to leave the ability to spend that money on the table.  I think everyone is expecting that if they don't spend that money here they will spend it somewhere else, and perhaps more effectively, in the organization.

I am going to preface this with this: I cant remember an offseason where I was more cynical about the Orioles, competitive balance and the state of MLB in general.  But I dont think that money will be saved, or spent other places.  I think that money will be pocketed.

[Beef Supreme]

5 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Okay.  Let me qualify this.  If the choice is spending the remainder of our unspent allowance on him, or letting it lapse, then it's a no brainer.  That's leaving money on the table.  

There are,at this point, no other players we would be spending that money on.

If come the reset of the international bonus pool, I dont care if this guy ends up being Mike Trout or Billy Rowell, I am going to be pissed if we didnt sign him and let that allowance lapse.

If he waits until after the reset that's a different story.

Whether it is Colas or someone else, the Orioles have yet to jump the broomstick on a hyped international prospect under 25. They need to take that leap sooner than later to establish that they are genuine players in the market. There will be failures. But at this stage, the payroll expense could just as easily be accepted by management as a marketing and advertising expense. Not saying that Cubans don't know the Orioles, but courting and signing current talent makes this destination more appealing for younger players. And should Cuban players have success with the Orioles, then the franchise may become a more desirable landing spot with some kids who are dreaming of a future in baseball.

It's time the Orioles cross the Rubicon on one of these players. Or at least try their best. But whatever salary expectation may be guessed at right now means very little. Until we know the salary demands from Colas' representation, we can't make a fair attempt to value the acquisition of Colas or anyone.

(btw: anyone have a highlight of Stowers showing the oppo power of Colas in that one clip? ... )

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, Beef Supreme said:

Whether it is Colas or someone else, the Orioles have yet to jump the broomstick on a hyped international prospect under 25. They need to take that leap sooner than later to establish that they are genuine players in the market. There will be failures. But at this stage, the payroll expense could just as easily be accepted by management as a marketing and advertising expense. Not saying that Cubans don't know the Orioles, but courting and signing current talent makes this destination more appealing for younger players. And should Cuban players have success with the Orioles, then the franchise may become a more desirable landing spot with some kids who are dreaming of a future in baseball.

It's time the Orioles cross the Rubicon on one of these players. Or at least try their best. But whatever salary expectation may be guessed at right now means very little. Until we know the salary demands from Colas' representation, we can't make a fair attempt to value the acquisition of Colas or anyone.

(btw: anyone have a highlight of Stowers showing the oppo power of Colas in that one clip? ... )

More left of center than true opp, but here you go :57 seconds in

 

[DrungoHazewood]

On 1/3/2020 at 10:20 PM, Frobby said:

Why?   Because he’s done well in Japan’s minor leagues?     I’m getting tired of people treating every Cuban refugee like they’re the messiah.    Such a shame we didn’t spend $6 mm to get Victor Victor Mesa and his .537 OPS in A+/AA this year.     

I’m not saying Colas isn’t worth the money.     I’m saying let our professionals assess that and don’t believe every bit of hype you hear.     
 

At least with Colas he has some Japanese professional experience along with the Cuban League.  I'm pretty skeptical of Cuban numbers because of the wide spread in talent and an average level that's probably AA or lower.  Japanese minor league numbers aren't a great barometer, but probably better than just some teenage Cuban stats.

I'd trust quality scouting reports more than anything for someone with his age and background.

[DrungoHazewood]

12 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Certainly appears so.  However there could be rust there.  He hadn't really played organized baseball in 2 years.

Mesa Article

The linked article confirms that as well as points to the team making some adjustments in his swing to add power.  Give it 2 months next season before we are saying that signing was a complete bust.

Additionally using him as a reasoning to not sign a new hyped prospect is specious at best.  Its anecdotal and reeks of recency bias.

If you try hard enough you can come around to the Andy MacPhail position on talent acquisition: all methods have an ROI low enough that they're too risky to use.  Well, maybe drafting and signing at slot.  But that's it.

[wildbillhiccup]

I feel like some of the replies in this thread have taken a bit of negative turn. My initial post wasn't about whether or not the Orioles would pursue/sign Colas it was more to point out that there was a seemingly top young prospect available to start a conversation about him. I realize the Villar trade / salary dump hit some of you hard, but can we please just put the residual negativity from the move to bed and stop with the "they'll never spend the money" comments. Because, so far, Elias and the ownership have done nothing to indicate that they won't open up the checkbook when it comes to investing in the future of the franchise. If Colas turns out to be as good as advertised (once we find out a bit more about him) and we sit idly by while other teams swoop in I'll be the first to criticize the team and Elias, but for now is it too much to ask to give him/them a sliver of the benefit of the doubt? 

[wildbillhiccup]

12 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

At least with Colas he has some Japanese professional experience along with the Cuban League.  I'm pretty skeptical of Cuban numbers because of the wide spread in talent and an average level that's probably AA or lower.  Japanese minor league numbers aren't a great barometer, but probably better than just some teenage Cuban stats.

I'd trust quality scouting reports more than anything for someone with his age and background.

I'm hoping we'll hear from other scouts, reporters, etc., after the weekend, once everyone has a chance to digest the news. Then maybe we'll get a better sense of where he falls on the prospect scale. For me the biggest positive is his age. That alone makes me curious about him. That and the fact that maybe hitting on one of these international players might be the equivalent of speeding up the rebuild by a year or so. 

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, Beef Supreme said:

(btw: anyone have a highlight of Stowers showing the oppo power of Colas in that one clip? ... )

I’d be really leery of judging someone’s power off one swing of the bat.   I guess on one level it shows what a player can do if everything goes perfectly.   But it doesn’t really tell you what will happen with any regularity.   

I realize my posts in this thread come off like I’m negative on Colas.    I’m not.    I hope the O’s look at him, decide he’s worth grabbing, and get it done.    But that middle part is really important — they need to take a hard look and decide he’s worth it.    I don’t assume that he is or isn’t.   
 

[Frobby]

The interesting thing about the international market is that we know the best players are worth much more than they get paid, due to the spending caps MLB has imposed.    All we have to do is look back on the free market results from back before those caps were in place to know that.     So from that point of view, Colas could be a very good investment.     It just depends how good the team thinks he is.   

[weams]

13 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Certainly appears so.  However there could be rust there.  He hadn't really played organized baseball in 2 years.

Mesa Article

The linked article confirms that as well as points to the team making some adjustments in his swing to add power.  Give it 2 months next season before we are saying that signing was a complete bust.

Additionally using him as a reasoning to not sign a new hyped prospect is specious at best.  Its anecdotal and reeks of recency bias.

Absolutely. If a real prospect appears, let him be ours. 

[Scalious]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

See, I don’t agree with your philosophy.    Just because you have $4.5 mm available to spend doesn’t mean you spend it on an asset you think is really worth only $1 mm.   Let’s say the Orioles think this guy is on the level of Doran Turchin (our 2018 14th round pick).     You don’t toss $4.5 mm at a guy like that just because you can and you have nobody else in the international market to spend it on.     Now if you think the guy is a Kyle Stowers level talent or better, maybe you do.    Stowers only got an $884 k signing bonus, but presumably he would get more in an uncapped market with no slotting.    Not sure he’d be worth $4.5 mm, but maybe.     

No matter how you spend that money at this point. You are not going to get the ROI you want.